Posted on 06/30/2005 4:32:54 AM PDT by TigerLikesRooster
U.S. won't cut troop levels in Okinawa
The Yomiuri Shimbun
The United States, citing a possible surprise assault on Taiwan by China's special forces as a realistic scenario, has told Japan it will be difficult to reduce or relocate to the Japanese mainland any of its marine corps combat units stationed in Okinawa, government sources said Wednesday.
Washington has made this position on the marines in Okinawa known to the Japanese side through bilateral talks including consultations over the realignment of U.S. troops and their bases in Japan, the sources said.
The United States has about 18,000 marines stationed in Okinawa. Currently, about 3,000 of them are serving in Iraq, according to the Foreign Ministry and other sources.
The U.S. Marine Corps 3rd Marine Expeditionary Brigade, which the USMC calls its "only permanently forward-deployed brigade sized marine air ground task force or a force in readiness" is based in Okinawa.
The United States is believed to be capable of deploying the task force with amphibious assault and high intensity combat capabilities within about 24 hours in the event of an emergency in or near Taiwan.
Since Washington clarified its stance vis-a-vis Okinawa-based marines in spring at bilateral talks involving deputy foreign and defense ministers and other sessions, Japan has been negotiating with the United States over the possibility of cutting the number of noncombat marine units in Okinawa such as logistics units, totaling about 3,000 personnel, and relocating the command functions to Guam, the government sources said.
The U.S.-drawn scenario envisions China deploying a single special operations unit to Taiwan, aiming to have it seize the nerve center of the government in Taipei and control Taiwan by installing a pro-China regime.
During the crucial period of several days that would be necessary for the pro-Beijing regime to hold power in Taiwan, Washington would dispatch Okinawa-based marines to Taiwan. Taipei is located about 630 kilometers southwest of Naha, the capital of Okinawa.
The primary purpose of the rapid dispatch of marines to Taiwan would be to stop China's attempt to control Taiwan from becoming a fait accompli. Washington is said to fear a situation in which no U.S. forces could be deployed to Taiwan for several days after an emergency occurs in Taiwan and that, in such circumstances, the pro-Chinese regime would gain further ground, while the United States would eventually have lost the vital opportunity for intervention.
To stay superior to Taiwan in military terms, China has been reinforcing the People's Liberation Army's capability in the area with surface-to-surface short-range ballistic missiles and new Russian-made fighter jets and staging large-scale mock landing operations.
However, China would face a great risk of entering into a full-scale war with the United States if it resorted to full-blown deployment of its main military forces in the area, according to U.S. analyses obtained by the Japanese side.
In contrast, the use of small military units such as special forces units could enable China to avert a major war with the United States on one hand and to make it difficult for the U.S. military to intervene in Taiwan. In such a situation, the Chinese would aim to effectively put Taiwan under its control.
From a U.S. perspective, deploying U.S. troops to Taiwan in the event of an emergency there would be in compliance with the Taiwan Relations Act, which requires the U.S. government to maintain capabilities to counter the use of military force against Taiwan and take necessary measures in the event of such a development.
In the early stage of bilateral negotiations over the realignment of U.S. troops in Japan, a proposal was floated calling for the relocation of some of the combat units of the USMC troops in Okinawa to other places in the rest of Japan or abroad.
However, the intrusion into Japanese territorial waters off Okinawa Prefecture by a Chinese nuclear submarine in November led the U.S. side to have second thoughts about the relocation proposal.
As for the idea of redeploying some of the Okinawa-based marines to the mainland of Japan, Washington has already told Tokyo that it would be difficult to comply with such a plan because the expeditionary capabilities of the marine force in Okinawa must be kept intact as deterrent to China.
(Jun. 30, 2005)
Ping!
</sarcasm>
Ping!
I'm all for troops in Japan, but I find it odd that Democrats are so eager for a troop withdrawal schedule in Iraq but say nothing about troops in Germany, Italy, Spain, Japan, South Korea, Bosnia, etc.
Ping!
Don't forget Korea - Truman should have had a plan and an exit strategy. Dang cowboy.
I’ve been laughing Chinese invasion scenarios for years, but that one’s possible. Not with Bush in the White house, but possible with most others. It even gives them a face-saving out if they fail, claiming that it was just a warning or punishment to some individuals.
Way back when, the police had record of every firearm on island - I think None were in local hands - and made it a practice to drop by and count rounds. Prior notice not required.
I'm fairly sure it isn't any better today.
Taiwan has always had an underlying fear of native Taiwanese and mainland sympathizers because the ROC retreated onto an island that had been under chinese rule but not of it's culture.
Just ask yourself which party was in power when those troops were put in place..
Spain is the only one I'm not sure of.
Too bad we can't position 3MAB on Taiwan, it's a heck of a lot nicer place to spend time and the locals are not tainted by sixty years of watching American evolution.
I doubt that. China treated us like a bitch when they brought down our spy plane and then charged us to send it back to us.
Tarajon, Spain (sp?)was originally a Spanish AF base that was filled with Junkers transports, Heinkle bombers and Messerschmidt fighters during the war and was given over to the 16th Air Force in the 50's which moved B-47's to it after a big upgrade.
I flew in there in the late '70s. Not sure if we're still there or not.
Torrejon Air Base, Torrejon, Spain
Thanks for setting the time frame and early purpose, B47 (absolutely beautiful) was way closer to tactical than strategic no matter what it carried.
Fewer today than back then but I'd guess most by far would prefer to remain just where they are, apart, dynamic and capitalist.
China would be crazed to invade; simply because ROC has been successful and the US is near at hand. More to fear from slow evolution, if the PRC does become more of a power and ROC becomes more 'tolerant' (as in Korea) they could very well eventually reunite.
On the other hand, depends on how they interpret Hong Kong after their transition and what comes to pass between PRC and Japan.
All IMHO.
Expect that scenario to acclerate if we flake in Iraq.
Interesting that the headline and story don't match. The story says the US doesn't want to cut COMBAT Marines ("trigger pullers"), but the way seems open to cutting non-trigger pullers (logistics-type Marines). Hope that satisfies folks in Okinawa.
"Things could get messy if pro-China elements in Taiwan create serious political turmoil inside the country, virtually fracturing the country. That is probably what China would be working on before the blitz by Chinese special forces.
Is China prepared to face the consequences of Taiwan launching missiles into Beiging if they decide to attack Taiwan?
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