Regards, Ivan
Posted on 06/26/2005 12:11:13 AM PDT by MadIvan
THE ultra-conservative mayor of Tehran, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, surprised much of Iran and most of the world yesterday by winning the presidency on a platform of promises reminiscent of the early days of the 1979 Islamic revolution.
Ahmadinejad, 49 — who has threatened to “cut off the hands of the mafia” and described Iran’s access to nuclear power as its “inalienable right” — won an unexpected landslide victory over Ali Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani, the 70-year-old former president and favourite.
The populist mayor, who cast himself as the Robin Hood of Iran’s devout and impoverished masses, secured 61.7% of the vote to Rafsanjani’s 35.9% in Friday’s second round run-off. Turnout was about 60%.
Rafsanjani, the so-called “pragmatic” if machiavellian cleric, had narrowly led the list of seven candidates in the first round held a week earlier, and had been widely expected to pick up many more votes from liberal-minded voters anxious to prevent a victory by his hardline rival.
In his first statement as president-elect, in a tape sent to Iran state radio, Ahmadinejad declared: “I seek to create a modern, advanced, powerful and Islamic model for the world. Let us convert competition to friendship, we are all a nation and a big family.”
His words reminded observers of similar slogans chanted in the early days of Ayatollah Khomeini, who led the revolution that ousted the Shah a quarter of a century ago.
World reaction to Ahmadinejad’s victory was mixed. Jack Straw, the foreign secretary, urged him to address international concerns over Iran’s nuclear programme.
In Washington, the State Department indicated that the result would not change America’s view of Iran as “out of step with the rest of the region in the currents of freedom and liberty that have been so apparent in Iraq, Afghanistan and Lebanon”.
Russia, which has angered Washington over its close nuclear ties with Iran, congratulated Ahmadinejad, however, and pledged to continue its co-operation.
Ahmadinejad, who has promised to give the poor a greater slice of the Islamic republic’s abundant oil wealth, swept to victory after a campaign focused largely on the hardships of the majority of the country’s 68m people.
For the rest of the world, probably the most worrying aspect of Iran’s step into the political unknown will be what his victory means for its nuclear policy.
A top Iranian nuclear scientist told The Sunday Times last week that the country would be “a very few years” away from enriching its own uranium for fuel if it lifted its current suspension of enrichment activity. It would then be only a step, using the same process, to create weapons-grade fuel for an atomic bomb.
Ahmadinejad has described nuclear energy as “the scientific achievement of the Iranian nation”, declaring: “No one can deprive the Iranian nation of this right.”
His words contrasted with comments by Rafsanjani, who had been viewed by many in the West as having a more pragmatic approach to negotiations on nuclear policy. Rafsanjani will nevertheless continue to wield considerable influence.
Ahmadinejad will not have sole control over nuclear policy. A decisive role will be played both by Ayatollah Khamenei, Khomeini’s successor as supreme leader, and the Supreme National Security Council, to which Ahmadinejad will be elevated as president.
Under Iran’s idiosyncratic political system, the elected president is subordinate to the supreme leader, who has the last word on all domestic and foreign policy and directly controls the armed forces and intelligence services.
Of equal interest to foreign capitals will be the effects of Ahmadinejad’s election on other aspects of Iran’s international policy.
The question will be: is Iran returning to earlier days when Khomeini foresaw it as the country that would export Islamic revolution to the world, or will it continue to pursue the more pragmatic policy that it has followed since Khomeini’s death in 1989? Ahmadinejad, who looks back proudly on his role during the revolution as a member of the Office for Strengthening Unity, the student group that staged the seizure of hostages at the US embassy, has made no secret of his distaste for America or the United Nations — which he has described as “one-sided and stacked against the world of Islam”.
It is on domestic affairs that he is certain to make his mark, though. As mayor he has made clear his distaste at all things western, famously ordering the removal of advertising billboards featuring David Beckham, the only foreign face to appear in Iranian advertising since the Shah’s days.
His slogan during the campaign — “We did not make a revolution to have a democracy” — appeared to anticipate a closing down of what had been a gradual relaxation of social and political controls.
“The ideological right will infiltrate everything,” said one Iranian analyst. “There will be an overhaul of all ministries, and people in the security services who are seen as having been too lenient on political dissidents will be out.”
The first to face Ahmadinejad’s “purifying” approach is likely to be the Ministry of Islamic Guidance and Culture, effectively the information ministry.
The question most frequently asked yesterday was how Ahmadinejad, a blacksmith’s son, had managed the meteoric rise from governor of an obscure province to mayor of Tehran — and then to president of one of the world’s oil powers in only two years. The explanation lay in his ability to appeal directly to people who felt left out, either because of poverty or because they felt there was no place for them in the corrupt and exclusive political constellation that replaced the Shah.
While Rafsanjani rarely left his office in affluent northern Tehran during the campaign, Ahmadinejad traversed the provinces, often in his ramshackle orange campaign bus, repeating: “I have no money to spend on my campaign. No party is supporting me. I am the people’s servant.”
It was only after the first round that Rafsanjani appeared to realise his error in not doing more to court the poor — responding on Wednesday, the last day of campaigning, with promises of a mass privatisation programme that would make the people rich. They were apparently not convinced.
Ahmadinejad was also helped in both rounds by the 8m to 10m votes of the Revolutionary Guard and the Basij, a voluntary militia that has an office in every village and is organised through the mosques.
The new president may struggle to satisfy the economic expectations he has raised during the election. But the people of impoverished southern Tehran were jubilant yesterday, shouting to each other on the street, while the middle class and wealthier elements were dourly anticipating the change they expect when he takes the presidency in two months.
Their opinions could be encompassed by one office worker, who declared: “We’re going back 20 years in history.”
Another said more simply: “Tomorrow I start growing a beard.”
In his own words
Regards, Ivan
Ping!
"I hope Israel is warming up the jets as I write this."
You, and me, both.
You know what I don't like?
The very fact that they are considered "conservative" in some corners.
He's not "conservative". He's a totalitarian prat, who ought to be taken out back and shot before he hurts any more people.
Regards, Ivan
"World reaction to Ahmadinejad’s victory was mixed. Jack Straw, the foreign secretary, urged him to address international concerns over Iran’s nuclear programme."
Ahmadinejad won't address the issue of Iran's nuclear program.
OTOH, the Israelis will address the issue...in an loud and explosion-filled statement of their intentions.
I wonder if Israel has been holding off until the elections were decided. Now there is no doubt. Iran won't turn back...and now the Israelis likely won't either.
Yeah, well, it's damn sure that Europe and the U.S. aren't gonna do shit about it. I sure hope you're right. And I hope Tehran glows when they're through.
What could've been, eh, Dennis?
"He's a totalitarian prat, who ought to be taken out back and shot before he hurts any more people."
I'll bump that!
In Texas, they'd line 'em up and shoot 'em.
I love Texans. ;o)
A whole story about the Iranian election, and no mention of (1) turnout (which was very low) and (2) rigging (which was patent).
About now Jimmah Carter should dodder on to the world stage to say that the beards were elected by a nore honest system than in the US, and it's all Bush's fault.
d.o.l.
Criminal Number 18F
Looks like the mayor one with the time tested strategy of pork barrel politics and falsifying ballot box results.
I hope Israel is not warming up jets. I hope Iranians take to the streets instead. Foreign meddling will only make things worse. Israel's reputation is bad enough already.
This is terrifying. This very well COULD be how WWIII starts, or its leadup. Who here can say Czechoslovakia 1938? The European powers and the UN will appease Iran, the US is overextended and to do anything would be a critical error (in the current circumstances, at least), Russia trying to use this as leverage to become a power again, Iranian vying for regional hegemony, and Israel unable to do anything for fear of provoking a fullout war.
What a nightmare.
I really hope the Iranian moderates and democratics do something. Iran needs a democratic revolution far more than Ukraine did (though I am glad Ukraine had one). G-d willing, I pray the situation resolves itself.
Yes, well all this is Jimmy Carter's fault. If Ronald Reagan had been President during the Iranian Revolution, it would have been nipped in the bud. Stupid, brain-dead, inept Jimmy just let it happen and let America be shamed.
Regards, Ivan
"I hope Israel is not warming up jets. I hope Iranians take to the streets instead."
I am hoping for the same.
WWIII is here, my friend.
In fact, some call it WWIV, if you consider the Cold War as a war.
"What a nightmare."
These are the times that try men's lives, for sure.
"Stupid, brain-dead, inept Jimmy just let it happen and let America be shamed."
Oh, Dear Lord!
That was a horrible time for our country.
You phrased it exactly right, though.
I do so appreciate your posts.
Thank you for staying.
At least your government will do something if it becomes necessary. I live in Canada. Our national strategy these days is to stick our heads in the sand and hope for the best, humming the "Solidarity Internationale". *shudder*
This is a great opportunity for the U.N. to prove its worth. Go on! Get your ass in gear, Kofi...
"WWIII is here, my friend." "These are the times that try men's lives, for sure." You said it. Not me. But I won't deny it either. All we can do is pray to God, hope for the best, and try to prep an emergency deployment force. I don't think we can, though. Not without the UN sending troops into Afghanistan and Iraq. Israel's hands are tied, unless we want another regional war in which it, once again, is outnumbered, surrounded and still quite possibly outgunned. Where's some real friends when you need them? Australia and Britain are doing as much as their populaces will allow already, but its not enough. My country are being cowards, and the UN does nothing as usual.
On what will be known as their "Dead" tour. Will bring new meaning to the term "Day-Glo Orange." Onward IAF...
The point is, is there enough time and space so that can we all dance together without intentionally stepping on each others toes ? The Middle East is one hell of a big dance floor.
P.S. I use the word "hell' above in it's fondest sense.
Your gung-ho attitude is misplaced. Fortunately you are not in charge of any foreign policy decisions with a major power.
And your appeasement slip is showing. Fortunately, I won't have to be in charge of any action - and neither will you - more fortunately. We'll both watch from the sidelines when Israel takes out the Iranian nuclear facilities like it did in Iraq. You DO remember that, don't ya?
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