Posted on 06/04/2005 12:48:38 AM PDT by M. Espinola
NEW YORK- Think $55 a barrel oil is bad? Wait till a hurricane knocks out a U.S. pipeline and a port at the same time that militants are killing hostages in Saudi Arabia, sending oil prices over $150 a barrel.
That's the premise of "Oil Storm," a television docudrama set to premiere in the United States on Sunday. The movie uses exaggerated real life events and fictional characters to examine America's dependence on oil and the havoc a major disruption in supply could wreak on ordinary people.
The movie depicts -- albeit in the extreme -- what energy markets have spent much of the past year fretting about: hurricanes that can rip apart oil infrastructure and war and turbulence in the Middle East, which have driven crude prices to record highs.
And the writers aim to show why the intricacies of oil rigs and oil reserves should be as much a concern for average Americans, with their taste for gas guzzling SUVs and summer road trips, as they are for traders at the New York Mercantile Exchange.
"Everything is so interconnected that anything that happens in Saudi Arabia or China will have an impact on oil, and therefore an impact on you or I in terms of what happens at the pump," said Caroline Levy, its British producer and co-writer.
Levy is well aware that the movie could be criticized for fanning fears of a doomsday scenario, similar to last year's Hollywood blockbuster "The Day After Tomorrow", in which New York was flooded by a tidal wave before being frozen solid, in a series of events that defied the laws of physics.
Few specialists expect a chain of events to occur any time soon that would lead to oil at $150 a barrel, although investment bank Goldman Sachs did send shockwaves into the market in March when it warned oil prices could hit $105 a barrel under a "super-spike" scenario.
"None of what we're saying is so out of the realms of belief," said Levy, adding the movie is based on numerous interviews with energy experts and only a slight exaggeration of past events. "The purpose is to show how vulnerable the infrastructure of the oil industry in America is."
In the movie, which will be aired on Fox's FX network, a powerful hurricane reminiscent of last year's Ivan smashes into Port Fourchon, Louisiana, cutting off a majority of the nation's oil imports and crippling production in the Gulf of Mexico.
The U.S. administration turns to its ally and top world exporter Saudi Arabia, which boosts supplies but then is forced to deal with an unfolding crisis of its own, involving "Shoot first, ask questions later" security forces and hostages.
The movie depicts panic spreading across oil markets, sending oil prices above $150 a barrel, while cars across the United States line up outside gas stations, and everyone's lives are thrown into disarray.
"At the end of the movie, prices go back to pretty much what they were at the start of the year," said Levy. "But the film is basically saying 'What we can we learn from this?'"
all photos added
Wish they tought more history in school.
At one point in the Truman administration, the railroad workers went on strike. Back then it was a crippling situation. So he drafted all the railroad workers and federalized them. End of problem.
If we had the same guts now, the scenario presented in this movie would be over in 30 days. The Army Corps of Engineers and USN SeaBees would get the pipeline and port back in short order. As to terrorists in SA, we have friends in Iraq who have lots of oil. Screw the SA.
When you are waiting in that long line for gasoline next time, make sure you give your money to that guy who approaches you offering to speed things up by your pre-paying him. Oh ... and be sure he gives you a receipt.
Dallas59 wrote:
"What we can we learn from this?"
(That the producers of this "Monster movie" all want to buy new Mercedes and BMW's off the DVD sales? )
--> You mean they won't buy the latest geo metro 3 cylinder?
Ah,
If it would only come true!
Just think. A real reason for us to start investing in alternate fuel sources or new transportation ideas would simply give us the incentive to dump the Middle East all together. The quicker the better.
Let them eat sand, with a side order of crude oil.
Those are for the "little people"...
The network showing this movie, FX, has also recently shown disaster movies with plots like a biological warfare strike and terrorists taking over a nuclear power plant. They must have a few guys in a conference room just thinking up new disaster movies. "I've got it, the US is attacked by...... LOCUSTS, yeah locusts that's the ticket."
I take it as a personal compliment that you see the Seabees in such a positive light. (With due respect to the Army Engineers)
After 20 years of being one myself, I know they could get us back up and running in a week or so..no matter if they had to build an entire pipeline to do it.
Been there, done that!
In the biggest disruption of the region’s output in at least two years, Hurricane Ivan forces Shell Oil Co., ChevronTexaco, ExxonMobil, and Total, to shut some hundreds of thousands of barrels per day of Gulf of Mexico oil production as the companies evacuate more than 3,000 workers from the offshore platforms. Oil tankers from Venezuela also face a three-day delay on deliveries to the United States because of the hurricane. The U.S. Minerals Management Service reports that Ivan has reduced Gulf Coast oil production by 61%. (Bloomberg, DJ, Reuters)
"In spite of 140 mph winds, there was no loss of life or major pollution in the gulf's production area from Ivan, but 31 platforms were seriously damaged and several were destroyed. There was also damage to underwater pipelines." sciencedaily.com
"Prior to Hurricane Ivan striking the U.S. mainland along the Gulf of Mexico coastline, the Coast Guard closed seven ports in four states, including New Orleans in Louisiana, which is the hub of the U.S.'s third-largest port complex. The complex is a major gateway for ships on the Mississippi River and in the Gulf of Mexico for commodities such as steel, rubber, zinc, copper, aluminum and grain, but experts say that hurricane-disruption was minimal.
Traders say some cargo ships reversed their course to avoid the storm. But, overall, the disruption delayed the supply chain only for 48 hours by diverting traffic to ports down the coast in Texas at Houston, Galveston and Freeport—"and that's not a critical amount of time for these types of materials," says Janet Plume, editor of the Gulf Shipper trade magazine told the Associated Press. Still, Hurricane Ivan cost the Port of New Orleans $19 million a day as cargo ships were turned away, says chief executive Gary LaGrange." purchasing.com
"Nearly 30 percent of the nation's energy needs travels through Louisiana. With pipelines shut down, oil tankers backed up at Louisiana ports, and rough seas continuing to toss the Gulf, analysts blamed the spike in oil prices largely on the slowdown in the Gulf." picayuneitem.com
Better Dead Than Red wrote:
( They must have a few guys in a conference room just thinking up new disaster movies. "I've got it, the US is attacked by...... LOCUSTS, yeah locusts that's the ticket.")
--> I was going to make a movie about these terrorists, you know.. But i was told they wouldn't make it because it was too real and i could get sued big time, let alone someone could off me becuase it would be called "an insult" and i could end up like some other guy that got dead. I think my movie would the the real ticket! :P
The reviews I have read on this upcomomg movie dealing with the Saudi oil infrastructure, have also been discussed by some energy traders & other analysts, for the longer term involving different scenarios encompassing Iran, Gulf states, Saudi Arabia, plus additional, treacherous, anti-Western players.
In relation to taking firm action directed at the fanatical Wahhabist oil barons controlling Arabia, there is absolutely no will in Washington, even after the majority of 9-11 hijacking killers were Saudi nationals, tutored in Saudi Wahhabist jihadic mindset, since birth.
As far as crude oil, natural gas, unleaded gasoline, jet fuel, heating oil & other petroleum derivatives doubling in price - from the current highs. I distinctly remember during the oil 'slump' of the winter of 1998-99 when crude hit below $12 a barrel, while at the same time scores of new 'high-tech' companies, which never earned a dime, nor issued a dividend check, yet were being bought up like crazy for $100, $200 & $300 per share.
So many investors, traders & brokers alike just could not focus on the unrealistic market trending developments right before their eyes, and capital continued flowing like wine.
A select few warned the 'high-tech' stock frenzy was a 1929 style, hyper-inflated bubble, about to burst. Some in the oil trade stated there was no way oil would remain close to $10 a barrel for long and was heading right back to at least $30 per barrel.
Everything happened like clock work. The 'High-Tech Crash' took most investors by complete surprise, coupled with billions in losses, because they could not fathom being the only schlub on the block not buying into the 'high-tech fever'. 'Greed was good', again.
For those which take lightly discussions concerning oil prices doubling again, even if it's depicted in a Hollywood made-for-TV movie, think back to the beginning of 2002 when the cost of a barrel of oil was just under $20.00, and as I type this, the price is a little over $55.00. Nuff said :)
I had a friend at a Mobil station and would fill up 'after hours' in the dark :)
I guess it's time I invest in some 90 storey horse and buggy barns designed for big cities. bagging 'fertilizer' and rose plants in pots might take off too...
Read Hubert's Peak and other thoughtful tomes on Peak Oil and there is a distinct possibility that we are in the midst.
I do resent and dispise the Hollyweird crowd's, probably with the approval of the powers-that-be to incite some emotionalism into a discussion that should be rational.
The day after the movie, all the hysterics will be out of their closets and on the gabble channels.
I remember queueing for gas in the 70's. We survived. Yawn.
And there's only one barrel of it available.
And everyone's bidding on it.
And I own it.
And all the people bidding on it are 19 year old gorgeous blond chicks in bikinis.
That movie studios will throw money at anything these days.
So tell me, with all the "WE'RE ALL GOING TO DIE!" movies made over the years has there been even one that had been even remotely realistic?
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