CA: Special elections seem likely - With petitions in, governor's challenge is to convince voters

Monterey Herald ^ | 5/9/05 | Beth Fouhy - AP

[NormsRevenge]

SAN FRANCISCO - There's no question Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger's campaign on behalf of his government reform proposals has cost him popularity and political capital.

But with initiative petitions being turned in and new campaign commercials beginning to air statewide, the ever-optimistic governor may have turned a corner in the fierce battle to place his reform agenda before voters.

Despite weeks of televised attacks by nurses, teachers and other Democrat-leaning interest groups, Schwarzenegger appears to have gathered enough signatures to force a special election on three initiatives aimed at changing the way government does business.

None of the three -- changing the way legislative districts are drawn, raising standards for teacher tenure and setting in place an automatic budget-balancing tool -- may sound urgent enough for a special election that could cost some $70 million. But the governor has all summer and into the fall to convince voters the measures are a necessary step to shake up a calcified status quo.

The redistricting and budget-balancing proposals would be constitutional amendments.

There's still a chance Schwarzenegger, a Republican, may decide against pulling the trigger on a special election. But he's gained leverage with the Democrat-controlled Legislature now that a special election has transformed from a mere concept to a bona fide threat.

And it's particularly true now that he can begin directing campaign cash away from gathering signatures and toward promoting his message and polishing his battered image.

''We're moving into another phase,'' Schwarzenegger communications director Rob Stutzman said. ''The signatures have been turned in, and the measures are qualifying. It pushes the chips across the table to us.''

Democrats and their allied interest groups, meanwhile, already have spent millions on a television ad campaign to discredit Schwarzenegger and his reform measures, only to face the prospect of spending significantly more between now and November to defeat them.

Complicating the matter further for Democrats is what many union activists are referring to as the ''nuclear option,'' an initiative that would restrict the use of union dues for political purposes unless union members give their consent.

The measure is backed by Schwarzenegger supporters and likely to win the governor's public endorsement. If it qualifies for the ballot as expected, unions would be forced spend several million dollars to try to defeat it.

''We're doing what we do because we're forced into it,'' said Democratic strategist Gale Kaufman, the chief organizer of the union-backed Alliance for a Better California.

Schwarzenegger begins the next chapter of the political battle in a much weaker position than anyone would have predicted even a few months ago.

His once-stratospheric popularity has all but evaporated, with Democrats and independents who form the vast majority of California voters now saying they disapprove of his performance in office.

His opponents' television ad campaign, depicting him as a cold-hearted enemy of teachers, nurses, firefighters and other working Californians, has shredded his image as populist outsider.

His recent comments to ''close the borders'' and in praise of the Minuteman patrols for illegal immigrants diverted attention from his reform efforts. The remarks were reminiscent of former Gov. Pete Wilson's anti-immigration positions during the mid-1990s, which drove Hispanic voters away from the Republican Party.

Schwarzenegger advisers insist his border comments where spontaneous and partly due to faulty English. He later explained that he meant to say the borders should be properly secured.

But those remarks, along with the anti-union sentiment driving his reform initiatives, have helped reinforce the notion that Schwarzenegger's famously bipartisan inner circle has become dominated by business interests and former Wilson aides.

''They've convinced him that everyone hates unions and the only reform necessary is breaking the power of unions. That's Republican orthodoxy these days,'' said Raphael Sonenshein, a political science professor at California State University, Fullerton. ''He went down the road of bipartisanship, but somehow he's become a Chamber of Commerce Republican in a blue state.''

But with Schwarzenegger pivoting more fully into campaign mode, advisers insist the team's once-envied message discipline is being restored. The governor's political consiglieri, GOP consultant Mike Murphy, has become more deeply engaged, and first lady Maria Shriver continues to be a watchful presence.

The partisan tone of Schwarzenegger's reform initiatives have led observers to question how influential Shriver, a Democrat, has been in shaping policy in recent months. But advisers say that whatever political misgivings she may have had about the measures have been outweighed by loyalty to her husband and anger over the campaign waged against him.

''She understands where California is -- it's conservative fiscally, moderate socially, and cutting edge environmentally,'' said former Republican state Senator Jim Brulte. ''And if she had any problem with the initiatives, they probably went out the door when everyone started kicking her husband's butt.''

Perhaps the biggest boost to Schwarzenegger's chances during a fall campaign will be the absence of earlier proposals that proved explosive.

His very public fight with the California Nurses Association over nurse-to-patient staffing ratios was never an initiative proposal to begin with and is being contested in the courts. Most significantly, he has withdrawn earlier proposals to change retirement benefits for state employees and tie teacher pay to merit rather than tenure. Both drew furious responses, which contributed to his slide in public opinion polls.

Ironically, Schwarzenegger's withdrawals on those measures may help him if he calls a special election on the remaining reform proposals. A package that includes only redistricting, budget-balancing and teacher tenure could be far more palatable to California voters.

With a re-energized political team, a clearer message and more money for television advertising, Schwarzenegger is likely to be a formidable advocate for his reform measures, even after the pounding he's taken the last several months. Observers generally agree that he now must reassert himself as an outsider and re-establish trust with voters.

''He needs to get back to the recall. He needs to position himself outside Sacramento,'' said Bill Whalen, a former Wilson aide now at the Hoover Institution. ''Instead of talking about nebulous special interests, he needs to get back to a message of real reform.''

[Wiseghy]

The battle for state begins.

Ruthless, dictitorial, truth twisting unions vs. The People of California, and one out-numbered, out-spent, totally surrounded moderate Republican Governor.

I'd like to hope the best one wins, but I put the odds at 60/40 that the people lose this one.

[goldstategop]

The Governator has all summer and most of the fall to restore trust with the voters. He needs to demonstrate this is a continuation of the recall election's premise: to sweep Sacramento with a broom and to do three things: 1) hold legislators accountable; 2) limit spending and 3) put kids first instead of the teachers' unions. Big goals and I have no doubt the fight's going to get ugly. These measures all strike at the heart of the Democrats' power in this state.

(Denny Crane: "Sometimes you can only look for answers from God and failing that... and Fox News".)