NYT: White House May Go to U.N. Over North Korean Shipments

New York Times ^ | April 25, 2005 | DAVID E. SANGER

[West Coast Conservative]

The Bush administration, facing a series of recent provocations from North Korea, is debating a plan to seek a United Nations resolution empowering all nations to intercept shipments in or out of the country that may contain nuclear materials or components, say senior administration officials and diplomats who have been briefed on the proposal.

The resolution envisioned by a growing number of senior administration officials would amount to a quarantine of North Korea, though, so far at least, President Bush's aides are not using that word. It would enable the United States and other nations to intercept shipments in international waters off the Korean Peninsula and to force down aircraft for inspection.

But, said several American and Asian officials, the main purpose would be to give China political cover to police its border with North Korea, the country's lifeline for food and oil. That border is now largely open for shipments of arms, drugs and counterfeit currencies, North Korea's main source of hard currency.

Two years of six-nation negotiations with North Korea have proved fruitless so far. It is uncertain, however, that China and South Korea would go along with any plan to step up pressure. To ward off a confrontation with the North, the two nations have opposed taking the issue to the United Nations Security Council.

Until last week, the administration insisted it was committed to solving the North Korean crisis through six-nation negotiations. But the discovery this month that North Korea has shut down its main nuclear reactor - perhaps to harvest plutonium for more weapons - prompted Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice to raise publicly the possibility of seeking United Nations action, a route the Clinton administration took in 1994.

"We are willing - when the time is right, when we believe that we have exhausted the possibilities of the framework we are in - to go to the Security Council," Ms. Rice said on Thursday on Fox News.

But the administration has never said publicly what it would seek from the United Nations. Though Ms. Rice made no mention of it, American intelligence agencies were also trying to decipher the meaning of renewed activity at a suspected North Korean nuclear test site.

Activity at the site in October and again in January led to concerns that North Korea may be preparing for the first underground weapons test - which would end any ambiguity about whether it has the technology to build a warhead.

[In Seoul on Monday, South Korea's foreign minister, Ban Ki Moon, warned North Korea against conducting any nuclear tests, saying they would further isolate it, The Associated Press reported.]

"They are either heading toward a full nuclear breakout, so that we are forced to deal with them as an established nuclear power, or they are putting on quite a show for our satellites," said one senior administration official, who added that the quarantine option had not yet been formally presented to President Bush.

The White House has said little so far about North Korea's actions, following a strategy very different from the one it pursued two years ago with Iraq. Ms. Rice has repeatedly said that North Korea's pattern is to seek a public reaction from Washington, and she has made clear she does not intend to oblige.

But some experts say the statements and actions North Korea have taken recently could mark a significant shift in strategy: It may now see a chance to build a modest nuclear arsenal while the United States and Asian nations debate how to react. The C.I.A. estimates that North Korea already has enough plutonium for six or eight nuclear weapons.

"I'm afraid they are now more interested in getting away with it than getting a reaction out of the United States," South Korea's former foreign minister, Han Sung Joo, said in an interview last week.

Since February, when it declared itself a nuclear power, North Korea's public statements have changed. It appears to be attempting to establish itself as a nuclear power that, like Pakistan, is now considered a permanent member of the nuclear club.

North Korea's No. 2 official, Kim Yong Nam, said on Friday that America so threatens North Korea "it stands to reason" for it "to equip itself with a nuclear deterrent as a legitimate self-defensive means."

On Sunday, North Korea's army chief of staff, General Kim Yong Chun, opened a meeting of military officers with a warning that the country's nuclear program would speed ahead. North Korea often issues strident warnings, many of which Washington dismisses. But the combination of the statements and the satellite imagery have put the White House and Pentagon on edge.

Administration officials said that even if they go to the United Nations, the White House would not abandon the six-nation talks, which also include Japan, South Korea, Russia and China. They said a resolution could take several forms, including additional political and economic sanctions, all of which North Korea says it would regard as an act of war.

But the idea of a quarantine has attracted the most interest, especially among administration hawks who never liked the idea of negotiations with North Korea. The quarantine idea has been pressed by the Pentagon and members of Vice President Dick Cheney's staff.

If approved, several officials said, it would be loosely modeled on the one President John F. Kennedy ordered against Cuba four decades ago. But in North Korea's case, the operation would be far more complicated - both because of the weapons that the North may already possess, and because the entire effort will fail if China is not a full partner.

[MJY1288]

We either confront the proliferation of Nuclear Weapons or we don't. Considering that N. Korea has nothing to export but what its Military produces, it makes sense to isolate them before they sell more of their long range missile capability to Regimes like Iran.

I sure hope Madeline Albright is sleeping well tonight, because most of the world isn't sleeping well because of her and Slick Willy's gross negligence e in dealing with Kim Jong Ill

[blogbat]

An arguably necessary political perfunctoriness at present, but of course China sits on the security council grinning like the Cheshire cat, so I'm sure we have little in way of expectation of success there.

[CBart95]

Nice try at humor. "Go to the UN?" For what?
To visit our money?
To learn of the Genocide they have been running in the Sudan?...over more than two decades.
To hear about their traffic in worldwide Child sex?
To learn about thier fully equipped field hospitals in Iraq for the "insurgents"?
To get a first hand look at unmitigated hatred for the USA?
To see the derision when we inquire about the "Oil for Food scandal?

[Southack]

This entire article is devoid of sources and evidence, while filled with idle speculation.

The NY Times now gossips more than a ladies' tea room.

For the adults, however, everyone knows that the Big Picture is that North Korea is China's problem so long as China is involved in the 6-Way Talks. No serious diplomat is going to jeopardize that status by unilaterally running to the UN or clamping down an embargo, either. Such nonsense is liberal fantasy material, as those sorts of actions would give China the excuse that it needed to leave the 6-Way Talks without also losing face.

Focusing in on the slightly narrower picture, the imposition of a quarantine would force NK to do something provocative such as a nuclear test (presuming that it's gotten taht far technically), or a series of dangerous long-range missile launches, perhaps even an outright invasion.

Little else would be gained from such a quarantine (which is why it hasn't been done up to this point).

In short, the NY Times is attempting to give bad advice to the Bush Administration through a warped method of reporting "news."

[piasa]

JULY 29, 2004 : (BOLTON'S PSI ALLIANCE IS WORKING AGAINST PROLIFERATION)... thanks to the media and Democrats who insist on portraying the Bush administration as "unilateral," you have probably never heard of it.
Called the Proliferation Security Initiative, this results-oriented alliance is now just over a year old. The work of the much maligned Under Secretary of State for Arms Proliferation and International Security John Bolton, PSI is already a great success in bringing nations that disagreed bitterly over the Iraq war together under one flag to deal with larger weapons proliferation issues, especially those relating to the Korean Peninsula.
How It Works: The PSI is a bit of a strange bird, neither pure military alliance nor economic consortium nor intelligence agency, though it bears some of the features of all three. There is no guarantee among PSI members to come to the defense of any other member attacked by another party, for instance, such as exists in the NATO charter. It has no operating budget or swank headquarters building, and no jet-setting General Secretary or Supreme Commander. But most of the world's great navies -- America's, the UK's, Japan's, Australia's, and Russia's all play key roles. Many of the world's best intelligence assets, from spy satellites to human intelligence sources to financial investigators, are devoted to working with the PSI at some level.
What those navies do under the PSI is track and board ships suspected of trafficking in weapons of mass destruction, the components or systems to build such weapons, and any parts or materials associated with such weapons, with a focus on nuclear weapons in particular.
The PSI's naval power may also have played a key role in the mass defection last fall of a swath of North Korean nuclear scientists who abandoned Pyongyang's backward Stalinist regime and have been providing the West with details of Kim's nuclear programs since. The details of that maneuver, dubbed Operation Weasel, have been understandably kept closely guarded for nearly a year.---- "Dubya: Mr. Multilateral," by Bryan Preston, Tech Central Station, July 29, 2004

[Cindy]

THANKS piasa.

[Nathan Zachary]

" In short, the NY Times is attempting to give bad advice to the Bush Administration through a warped method of reporting "news." I tend to agree. The left is just guessing. As usual, they don't have a clue what's going on.

[nw_arizona_granny]

Ping

[Alamo-Girl]

Thanks for the ping!

[bert]

Perhaps China will not make so direct an effort.

Perhaps a bluff is being called.

[blogbat]

Still tighter than teeth and gums.