N.Y. may lose two seats in House (2010 reapportionment)

This was the line that ran in today's Courier-Journal:

But that would be meager growth compared with projections for such fast-growing states as Florida, which would gain nine congressional seats, and Texas, which is projected to gain eight.

http://www.courier-journal.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20050421/NEWS0104/504210447/1008/NEWS01

Texas and Florida are supposed to be the big gainers. I think it said each would gain about 8 or 9 seats. Can we say emerging Hispanic influence in Congress?

I think the +8 or 9 seats for Texas and Florida are using the 2030 projections. If you run the 2030 projection numbers, Florida would go from 25 to 34 and Texas would go from 32 to 40.

Using the 2030 projections, New York would drop from 29 to 23 and California would only rise from 53 to 55.

True. It always mystified me that politicians have successfully managed to keep the idea of a fairer system off the agenda there, ie a simple rule along the lines that congressional constituencies must resemble a circle or square to the maximum degree poswible and then have an algorhythm (Sic) to enforce it.

If it could be done on a federal basis, at least you wouldn't get some of these weird constituencies that make no secret of having been designed by someone channeling the greaty Gerrymander himself!

Democrats are gaining steadily in the New York State Senate, and may well have the majority by or before the 2010 election. If there's a two-house plus Governor Democratic regime in Albany, expect the delegation to drop by at least 5 Republicans ... while we'll likely pick up 2 of them where they're reapportioned, the other 3 will be a straight-ahead loss.

Unfortunately, some of the states losing 1 or 2 seats have maps drawn by Republicans last time and it will be almost impossible to squeeze more Democrat casualties out. I'm thinking of Pennsylvania, Ohio, and Michigan, which have a lot of RAT-heavy districts and Republican-leaning districts since '02. It will be tough to eliminate the former without turning the latter blue. Also, Iowa has 4 Republicans and 1 Democrat, and the Democrat represents Des Moines, so odds are that a Republican will lose his seat unless it's won by a Democrat as an open seat before 2012. Illinois will be terrible for Republicans no matter what because the Democrats will likely control redistricting.

The good news: Massachusetts will lose a Democrat seat. Minnesota's Democrats represent the slow-growth areas so they'll probably cut loose either Peterson or Oberstar. Missouri's maps were drawn by Democrats so they will eliminate one of the two St. Louis seats--probably the one held by baby Carnahan. New York will probably lose on upstate Republican, one downstate/Island Democrat. If we're lucky, Hinchey will lose his seat upstate. I'm counting on Republicans holding on to the State Senate long enough to have a seat at the table.

Republicans will be drawing the maps in Utah, Georgia, Texas, and Florida. We may not pick up all three seats in the latter two states, but we're guaranteed 2 out of 3. Arizona's growth is suburban; count that seat for us. Ditto Nevada.

California's new seat will have to go somewhere in the Inland Empire or the Central Valley. The 'RATs would have to gerrymander the heck out of the map to get that seat for themselves.

I think the Democrats have done so well in Congressional elections in New York that they can't do much more harm through remapping. Look at Long Island--three seats held by Democrats could be won by Republicans, and Peter King's district is pretty safe, so any change there can only hurt Democrats.

Vito Fossella is safe because there will always be a Republican constituency in Staten Island and SW Brooklyn.

Sue Kelly is safe because there is a Republican suburban belt in the Lower Hudson Valley.

If you try to get rid of King, Fossella, or Kelly, you end up only getting rid of the Democrat they're paired with!

Get beyond that, and there is potential for significant losses, but not five seats. They could redistrict up north to gain one Democratic seat and lose three Republicans, but I think that's ambitious.

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