I know we were at 237 yesterday, with 500+ under observation...when did it jump to 277!
We know their hiding people and numbers, how does that affect the curve? 40 more people died or 40 more people were finally accounted for?
We know their hiding people and numbers, how does that affect the curve? 40 more people died or 40 more people were finally accounted for?
See the posted article. It was reported as 277 effective today.
As to your second question... I don't know, but we can all speculate. I suspect that they have been hiding the numbers, however, they cannot effectively hide the number of deaths. So, they "administratively re-classify" the data and it looks like the growth has stopped. But eventually, the death rate catches up with them and it continues to grow.
To me, the significant aspect of this posted article is the data that are missing, namely the number of cumulative cases. It should nominally be well over 300 now, considering the .92 factor and also that the 277 deaths was in Uigi exclusively.
IMHO, the way to do the analysis now is to use the available data and model to bound the possible solutions for the growth curve. Namely, the growth is exponential, but not as fast as a 9 day e-folding time, but faster than the 108 day efolding time. As the data continue, we will be able to tighten the bounding values toward a reasonable answer.