> It was 255 on the 17th. So it is 277 three days later.
No. Almost certainly more.
Parse the Clintonish language:
"... the northern province of Uige, where 277 people have died ..."
That 277 may be just in Uige.
Who knows what's happening in the slums of Luanda,
and elsewhere.
Wow!
Excellent point.
Well, one way or another, we are back on an exponential growth curve of something between 9 and 36 days.
Indeed, many of us hypothesized that the data were being "administratively" modified. However, ultimately, they cannot "administratively" change the data forever. Eventually, if this thing is not contained, it is going to grow to a level that they cannot conceal.
OK, I have re-run the data using your correction.
It was 237 deaths in Uigi 3 days ago and 277 today. (If I have that wrong still, someone correct me).
That corresponds to exponential growth and an e-folding time of 19 days.
We are seeing data that range from 9 days to 108 days.
However, we can conclude the following:
1. It is still growing exponentially.
2. It is obviously not contained.
3. The exponential time constant is probably not as fast as 9 days, nor as slow as 100, and is beginning to converge to a nominal number of roughly 20 days.
The approximate growth (I'll wait before I replot) is:
May 1: 550 cumulative cases
June 1: 2,605 cumulative cases
July 1: 12,272 cumulative cases