Angolan Optimistic About Containing Marburg Virus Outbreak

United States Department of State ^ | 2005-04-19 | Jim Fisher-Thompson

[rustbucket]

I doubt if one exponential curve would fit all the data, particularly as people change their behavior in response to the disease (i.e., reducing contacts with others) or if efforts at containment by medical staff or government were even partially successful. Changes like those would affect the number of transmissions to others and slow the growth of cases.

Still, the modeling you are doing is very useful, incomplete data or not. Thank you.

[Judith Anne]

What is disturbing is that nowhere that I can remember did they ever indicate there were even 277 active cases.

Me neither--I have to think that this is accurate information.

[Judith Anne]

I found this on recominomics.com commentary:

In spite of removal of cases outside of Uige, the total number of reported Marburg cases to date continues to rise. The number of reported cases remaining on the official tally has risen to 264, which is 16 shy of the record death toll for Ebola in Republic of Congo in 1976. Since the beginning of the outbreak last fall, the number of monthly cases has doubled each month. Last month there were approximately 70 cases that have remained on the official list. Since there have been approximately 130 new cases this month that have not been discarded, it seems likely that the number of cases in April will be more than double the number of cases in March.

http://www.recombinomics.com/News/04200503/Marburg_Toll_264.html

[2ndreconmarine]

The number of reported cases remaining on the official tally has risen to 264

Fascinating post.

The total number of "official" cases is 13 less than the death toll for Uigi alone. So, 13 people just magically disappeared?

It is interesting that they talk about the number of cases doubling each month. That is clearly exponential.

[Judith Anne]

It is interesting that they talk about the number of cases doubling each month. That is clearly exponential.

I see we noticed the same thing. I'm getting ready to post another article from South Africa...

[2ndreconmarine]

I doubt if one exponential curve would fit all the data, particularly as people change their behavior in response to the disease

I completely agree.

Indeed, my last plot showed this effect: the curves change because behavior changes.

The intent of the modeling is just as you suggest: it is a guideline, something to give us a feel for the implications of what is happening. Since there is a parametric change, I cannot model this analytically. It has to be done on a computer. However, I don't want to be accused of being one of those "global warming" scientists who create elaborate computer models with little or no data. As you, Eternal Hope, and others have pointed out, I am probably pushing the limit on this given the quality of the data. :-}

[txhurl]

bttt