THE RISE OF AUTHORITARIANISM IN GEORGIA

RIA Novosti ^ | 2005-02-08

[jb6]

Zurab Zhvania is dead. What caused this tragedy is not completely clear. However, the most important question that remains unanswered is how Zhvania's death will affect the line-up of the Georgian leadership and the country's policy in general.

It is no secret that Zhvania acted as a brake on President Saakashvili's radicalism. For example, Vyacheslav Igrunov, the director of the Moscow-based International Institute for Humanitarian and Political Studies, believes that Mr. Zvania, who was an extremely strong politician, disapproved of the "cavalry charge" policy in relation to South Ossetia.

"Saakashvili and Zhvania disagreed on many issues," the expert says. "The former sought destabilization, revolution, and the latter preferred stability. That is why certain tension always existed between the premier and the president. And this is why at a certain point Mr. Saakashvili started to remove people loyal to Zhvania from power and appoint his close supporters instead. The most striking example is the appointment of [Irakli] Okruashvili as defense minister in place of [Georgi] Baramidze."

Meanwhile, Russian political experts believe that if Mr. Okruashvili is appointed prime minister, both domestic and foreign policy may become more radical. An expert at the Institute of Political and Military Analysis, Alexander Khramchikhin, calls this scenario "inertia." "Mr. Okruashvili can be much tougher than Zhvania," says the expert. "Moreover, his appointment might lead to a war, which will be bad for Georgia."

That a year after the victory of a "democratic revolution" Georgia is gradually moving towards authoritarianism does not auger well for the country. "Any revolutionary government has this potential," says Anatoly Belyayev, an expert with the Center for Current Political Studies. "And in the current situation in Georgia, when the country does not have a political figure capable of acting asa counterweight to Mr. Saakashvili, the incumbent president will inevitably try to seize all the levers of power."

Mr. Igrunov calls Mr. Saakashvili's decision to assume the responsibilities of both the president and premier "symptomatic." "We are witnessing a clear attempt to consolidate power and further abandon democratic principles, because the executive branch is becoming omnipotent," he says. "And even if a new premier is appointed in the near future, he will not be as an effective counterweight to Mr. Saakashvili as Zhvania was. The latter was a clever politician with a lot of influential friends and enormous experience in politics." The expert continues that Georgia does not have any politicians of his caliber. "Nino Burdzhanadze is simply unable to withstand political pressure from Mr. Saakashvili," he says. "In addition, the current parliament has fewer powers than it did when she was a leader of the Rose Revolution."

It is doubtful that America will remain indifferent to this apparent shift towards authoritarianism in a Caucasus republic. After all, the current Republican administration has clearly stated its position on supporting and developing democracy throughout the world. Europe, represented by PACE, has already expressed its dissatisfaction with the way the political situation in Georgia is developing. This means that Mr. Saakashvili risks losing the West's support by pursuing his political ambitions.

Nevertheless, it could be that the Georgian leader had already started to entertain doubts about the unambiguous nature of the West's support during Mr. Zhvania's prolonged tour of the United States. Rumors suggest that Washington officials sized up the moderate Zhvania as a possible alternative to his more radical president.

Although there is currently no real alternative to Mr. Saakashvili, an imminent growth of opposition in Georgian society can be expected in the near future. "Zhvania's moderation kept many Georgian politicians around the revolutionary troika," Mr. Igrunov says. "After his death, these politicians will gradually reveal their oppositionist views."

Sergei Kazennov, the head of the geopolitics department at the Institute of World Economy and International Relations, goes even further. He assumes that the current trend toward a "Pinochet-like" regime in Georgia will be followed by another revolution. "Another reshuffle in the upper echelons of power is looming on the Georgian horizon, and the West will be certainly involved in it," the expert believes.

However, this is all in the future. Today, we have a more authoritarian Georgia, one that exhibits a growing inclination towards impulsive reactions. The latter circumstance will only help fan tension both within the country and in Russian-Georgian relations.

[Tailgunner Joe]

What a surprise. Russians condemn Saakashvili as a "Pinochet-like authoritarian" but defend Putin when he does the same things.

[jb6]

Gee, what a surprise, you're here. Oh and by the way, we're all still waiting with baited breath about how you're going to explain to us how a "honest" civil servant, oh say like Tomoshenko, could make $11 billion in 5 years. Still waiting.

[Terabitten]

Hehe... When I saw the headline, I thought, "Wait, Sonny Perdue isn't that bad!"