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Buffett: Billionaire Warns That U.S. Trade Gap Undermines Dollar
Forbes ^ | 20JAN05 | Greg Levine

Posted on 01/21/2005 5:17:57 PM PST by familyop

NEW YORK - Doers and doings in business, entertainment and technology:

Heed the Sage of Omaha. Warren Buffett, whose investment acumen seems unerring, had a caveat for America: Barring "a major change" in policies, the trade deficit will further undermine the U.S. dollar. The billionaire spoke in a Wednesday interview with CNBC, the cable TV news channel owned by General Electric (nyse: GE - news - people ). Without shifting current trade policy, "I don't see how the dollar avoids going down," he mused, warning of inflation risks posed by an anemic Yankee currency. The prairie-born genius also confessed he's having a "hard time" identifying stocks to buy, and isn't purchasing commodities. His cash swelled to $43 billion in the third quarter, by one account, because he couldn't find many investment opportunities. Buffett, 74, is chairman of Berkshire Hathaway (nyse: BRKa - news - people ), the immensely successful investment vehicle that acquired a new--and immensely successful--board member in December: Microsoft (nasdaq: MSFT - news - people ) Chairman Bill Gates. The latter also enjoys a personal friendship with Buffett, and takes part in his bridge games. (see: "Gates: Buffett's Pal Bill Elected To Berkshire's Board")


TOPICS: Business/Economy
KEYWORDS: buffett; currency; dollar; falling; now; trade; usd
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1 posted on 01/21/2005 5:17:58 PM PST by familyop
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To: familyop

The trade gap/deficit may be the one statistic in all the world that is more meaningless than the Game Winning RBI.

Germany is currently running a trade surplus. Checked out their economy lately, Warren?


2 posted on 01/21/2005 5:22:52 PM PST by Zhangliqun (What are intellectuals for but to complexify the obvious?)
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To: Zhangliqun

He shouldn't be looking at the trade deficit. What he should be looking at is the money supply, and national output.


3 posted on 01/21/2005 5:25:31 PM PST by Betaille (Harry Potter is a Right-Winger)
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To: familyop

Is anyone else worried about the falling stock market or am I alone in this?


4 posted on 01/21/2005 5:26:48 PM PST by durasell (Friends are so alarming, My lover's never charming...)
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To: Zhangliqun

...maybe true, and thanks, but have a look at this one from a little over an hour ago.

Canada Dollar Ends Losing Streak, Bonds Mixed [U.S. Dollar falling?]
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1325838/posts

And I have no investment interest in the matter, BTW. ...only historical
interest.


5 posted on 01/21/2005 5:27:54 PM PST by familyop
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To: familyop

the u.s. trade gap is over stated.

u.s. owned companies abroad return products to the states and these are included in the gap.


6 posted on 01/21/2005 5:30:38 PM PST by ken21 (4 as much time as u spend on the internet, u cd have several college degrees--daisy noonan)
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To: Zhangliqun
Frankly the game winning RBI is one of the most meaningful stats in all sports. But what the trade/gap deficit really means is that capital (and with it jobs) is flowing out of the U.S. Now you may call that meaningless but no sane person would.
7 posted on 01/21/2005 5:38:23 PM PST by hubbubhubbub
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.

To Warren Buffett

What are you up to, Warren? I bet I can guess. You are trying to manipulate the market. You'd like to see the dollar undermined, wouldn't you, because it would look bad for G.W. You dirtball!

.

8 posted on 01/21/2005 5:39:45 PM PST by Jackie
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To: Zhangliqun
"I don't see how the dollar avoids going down," he mused...
I guess Buffett isn't on the board of J&J...
US Firms Begin Repatriating Dollars
The US dollar continues to firm against the Euro, trading as low as 1.2921 during the European trading session. The markets remained focused on President Bush's Inauguration and have found respite in the lack of any geopolitical risks. News that Johnson and Johnson will be repatriating $11 billion of its past earnings from foreign activities back into the US in an attempt to take advantage of the reduced taxes offered under Bush's American Jobs Creation Act of 2004 has spurred continued optimism for the dollar. Pfizer may also be following suit, as they are considering repatriating $38 billion in past earnings. These firms will enjoy a reduced tax rate of 5.25% on these earnings, compared to the normal 35%. It is estimated that US corporations are holding $500billion of foreign earnings abroad, of which 30% could be repatriated this year.
Uh, ya think they'd rather wait for a weaker dollar before converting those billyuns to greenbacks, or do ya think they think that Warren Baby has it backwards?

The article says that this move is motivated by the US tax code. Sure, but the timing of it is not.

Either way, lowering taxes will increase the value of the dollar against currencies of other high tax economies. Bon appetit, Warren honey!

EUR to USD (YHO:EURUSD=X) Delayed quote data by Reuters
Last Trade: 1.2999
Trade Time: 6:12PM ET
Bid: 1.2999
Ask: 1.2999

Nicollo unmasked: Bromleyisms here

9 posted on 01/21/2005 5:43:37 PM PST by nicollo
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To: Jackie

Yes, Warren is a radical social lefty. So is Bill Gates.


10 posted on 01/21/2005 5:45:28 PM PST by familyop
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To: familyop
Buffett along with Soros and a couple of other Billionaires are shorting the dollar. It is in their interest for the dollar to go down. Buffett's financial interests may not be the same as your financial interests, therefore you should take his opinions with a grain of salt.
11 posted on 01/21/2005 5:45:51 PM PST by oldbrowser (You lost the election...........get over it)
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To: Jackie
What are you up to, Warren? I bet I can guess. You are trying to manipulate the market. You'd like to see the dollar undermined, wouldn't you, because it would look bad for G.W. You dirtball!
Dirtball, perhaps. Bush hater, probably. Manipulator, absolutely.

Warren baby shorted the dollar too late, and he's getting scared. I wonder where Soros is positioned now. Anyone know? My guess is that he's long on the dollar. He took his positions a while ago. If he's still short, I'll be amazed. I'd be glad for his suffering, but amazed, nonetheless.

12 posted on 01/21/2005 5:48:57 PM PST by nicollo
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To: durasell

You are alone...


13 posted on 01/21/2005 5:49:08 PM PST by dakine
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To: familyop

Duh. That is old news. The alternative press has been saying that since before NAFTA screwed the American worker. Tell us something we dont know.


14 posted on 01/21/2005 5:50:13 PM PST by Righter-than-Rush
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To: oldbrowser

You sure Soros is still short? I don't know. Just asking.


15 posted on 01/21/2005 5:50:44 PM PST by nicollo
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To: nicollo
You sure Soros is still short? I don't know. Just asking.

I haven't heard otherwise, and when one of these billionaires makes a change it usually moves the market.

16 posted on 01/21/2005 5:56:24 PM PST by oldbrowser (You lost the election...........get over it)
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To: nicollo
"News that Johnson and Johnson will be repatriating $11 billion of its past earnings from foreign activities back into the US in an attempt to take advantage of the reduced taxes offered under Bush's American Jobs Creation Act of 2004"

This is interesting. They are repatriating money but it doesn't mean they are creating new jobs. Another special interest giveaway? Nah.
17 posted on 01/21/2005 5:58:14 PM PST by OneTimeLurker
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To: familyop

What does Mr. Buffet recommend to stop the trade deficit?

The trade deficit is due to Americans buying foreign goods and not as many foreigners buying our goods. We don't make many of those goods in this country because of high labor costs - largely due to labor unions.

What's the solution? Trade barriers? Speak up Warren.


18 posted on 01/21/2005 6:00:22 PM PST by jackbill
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Comment #19 Removed by Moderator

To: jackbill

I can't speak for Warren, for sure, but two solutions to the trade deficit are a lower fed rate (more domestic competition) and a lower USD. Some people who are currently doing well in competition against their own countrymen here don't like it, but it appears that it's going to happen, anyway, IMO.


20 posted on 01/21/2005 6:10:41 PM PST by familyop
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