Posted on 12/23/2004 8:30:22 PM PST by nickcarraway
GOP-leaning states in line for more Congress seats Arizona, Florida, Texas and Utah would each gain one seat in the U.S. House of Representatives if districts were reapportioned today, according to an analysis by American City Business Journals.
Iowa, New York, Ohio and Pennsylvania, on the other hand, would each lose a seat.
The U.S. Census Bureau released new state-by-state population estimates for 2004 Wednesday. ACBJ used those figures to hypothetically reapportion House seats today, six years in advance of the next scheduled reapportionment in 2010. (Click here for a downloadable Microsoft Excel spreadsheet showing population and Congressional seat projections.)
The four states that would pick up House seats have experienced substantial population growth since 2000, when the last federal census was conducted. Arizona's population has increased by 12 percent since 2000, Florida's has grown by 8.9 percent, Texas' by 7.9 percent and Utah's by 7.0 percent, based on the latest Census Bureau estimates.
The four states that would lose House districts are growing at a snail's pace by comparison. New York has posted the largest population increase in the group since 2000, just 1.3 percent.
All 435 House seats are redistributed among the 50 states after each federal census, reflecting the latest state-by-state population counts.
The hypothetical reapportionment would result in a continuing flow of congressional power to the Sunbelt. All four states that would gain House seats are in the South or West, while all four that would lose are in the East or Midwest.
The balance of power in the Electoral College would tip slightly, as well, since each state's number of electoral votes is determined by the sum of its House seats and its two Senate seats.
President Bush last month won all four states that would pick up electoral votes under ACBJ's scenario. He and Democrat John Kerry split the four states that would slip in the Electoral College: Bush won Iowa and Ohio, while Kerry won New York and Pennsylvania.
Bush's victory in a reapportioned Electoral College would be 288-250, as opposed to his actual margin of 286-252 over Kerry.
Texas would climb to 33 seats in the House of Representatives under the hypothetical reapportionment. Florida would have 26 seats, Arizona nine and Utah four.
The new totals for the losing states would be 28 seats for New York, 18 for Pennsylvania, 17 for Ohio and four for Iowa.
Representation levels for the other 42 states would be unchanged.
California would remain the dominant force in the House under ACBJ's scenario, retaining 53 seats. The only other states with more than 20 seats as of today would be Texas with 33, New York with 28 and Florida with 26.
The ACBJ analysis also projected current population trends forward to 2010, seeking to identify states that might gain or lose congressional seats between now and then.
Five states would add House districts during the coming six years, provided that the population-growth rates for all states remained constant. Texas would tack on two additional seats, reaching a total of 35 after the 2010 census. California, Florida, Georgia and Nevada would add one seat each.
New York and Ohio would each lose another House seat by 2010 if current population trends continued, dropping to totals of 27 and 16 seats, respectively.
Illinois, Louisiana, Massachusetts and Missouri would also be in line to lose a single seat apiece after the next census.
This is for your poli-sci folder.
Not only would it tend to shift more House seats our way, it would also increase the number of electoral votes in red states.
All the more reason for Hillary to take her shot in 2008. After the 2010 census, the electoral math just keeps getting worse and worse for the Dims...
We should try to dominate at the state level the states that will be redrawing their congressional maps in '10.
The fewer electoral votes New York has, the better it is for the rest of the nation.
Note that under this projection, the GOP candidate in 2008 could lose Ohio and still would have 271 electoral votes.
This is good news. Of course, we need also to pick up some House seats that we by all rights should be able to win -- like those in ND and SD. It will take some national help in GOP GOTV.
A modest increase in the size of the House might be looked at. It hasn't kept pace with the increase in population since 1910. Right now the average congressional district has over half a million people whose interests have to be looked after. That's too many to represent effectively.
I think the 2008 election is going to be even more crucial, and even harder-fought, than this last one. I don't think the Demonrats can recover from a defeat in 2008 of the sort we dealt them in 2004.
Too bad California isn't losing any electoral points.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.