Rejected N.M. Provisional Ballots Top Estimates

The Albuquerque Journal ^ | November 10, 2004 | Lloyd Jojola And Rene Romo

[CedarDave]

Santa Fe and Taos are where the snarly liberals are (70+% voted for Kerry). Down here in the SE, it's Bush country -- you hardly pass a store front or go into an industrial shop here and NOT find Bush/Cheney stickers. In our county the President got 79% of the ballots cast. As far as Hispanics go, it appears that a lot of them voted for Bush also.

[truthandlife]

I hope they think it was stolen because that means they will not change and they will continue their radical leftist ways.

If they don't change they will get beat in '06 and '08 and the Democrat Party will be known as the Dinosaur Party.

[gopheraj]

A lot of them thought that they could go vote anywhere." The primary reason for rejecting the ballots was that the people who cast them were not registered to vote, she said. How stoopit are they? You have to be a total idiot to think you can vote without registering, but I tihnk they knew it and tried it anyway.

[DBeers]

"Just what does Bush material look like?"

-look for people that do not carry "we are sorry" placards..

[DBeers]

"I hope they think it was stolen because that means they will not change and they will continue their radical leftist ways."

-as long as the liberal elite hold with clenched fists the gay plank & abortion plank they will only be relevant in thier own 'enlightened' minds and political history books

[Tennessean4Bush]

Okay, so if 4000 out of 9000 have been rejected thus far, then we can reasonably assume that when the remaining 4000 of the 13,000 are reviewed that approximately 1777 will be thrown out and 1333 will be placed in the "good" pile, while 1000 will be placed in the "questionable" pile. That leaves a total of:

• 3000 good ballots out of the first 9000
• 1333 good ballots out of the last 4000
• 2000 questionable ballots out of the first 9000
• 1000 questionable ballots out of the last 4000

This means that 7333 possible ballots left to count --maximum. Really much less since most of the questionable ballots will not be counted either. Since Bush's lead is greater than the number of good provisional ballots to count, then there is no way for Kerry to overtake him.

[CedarDave]

Got to add in the provisionals from other counties (4,500+). Click on the article for the gritty details. But I agree with your conclusion.

[Tennessean4Bush]

Didn't I read somewhere that the "questionable" ballots were really not questionable, as they (the ballot counters) were trying to set them aside to open to find further identification for the voter because the voter had not really filled out the outside of the ballot as he were instructed?

[expatpat]

A lot of them thought that they could go vote anywhere

It needs to be said again:"Anyone who isn't smart enough to be able to vote, isn't smart enough to make an informed choice"

[Tennessean4Bush]

"he were instructed" should read "he was instructed". Yikes!

[MizSterious]

" The primary reason for rejecting the ballots was that the people who cast them were not registered to vote, she said. "

Well, doesn't that say it all?

[naturalized]

Your math is right for Bernalillo County, but in the other counties there are over 4,500 additional ballots being examined for counting.

Well, ok let's do that.

There are 8273 votes to overcome.

We know that for every 3 ballots they are keeping, they are tossing 4. Two thousand times 3 divided by 7 equals 857 votes. So best case from Bernallilo is 5857 - assuming JF'nK does really well.

Now do the math on your 4500 remaining. After separating the wheat from the chaff, we get 4500 x 3 / 7 = 1929 (rounding up to the nearest whole).

Tell me if I'm wrong, but isn't 7786 (5857+1929) still less than 8273?

[CedarDave]

Tell me if I'm wrong, but isn't 7786 (5857+1929) still less than 8273?

Yep, but still closer than I'd like.