Posted on 11/07/2004 10:50:29 AM PST by Mountain Dewd
Maybe you've had your fill of politics for a while, but take a peek at 2006:
Ben Nelson, 41 percent Mike Johanns, 38 percent
Those are the findings of a World-Herald Poll on a possible U.S. Senate showdown that Nebraskans could see in two years.
As the numbers suggest - within the poll's margin of error of plus or minus 3.1 percentage points - the potential race pitting two political powerhouses already is shaping up as a titanic struggle.
Johanns, the state's two-term Republican governor, and Nelson, the Democratic U.S. senator and former two-term governor, both say they don't make too much of the numbers. Each said he is focused on doing his current job.
"It's statistically even, and at this point, no one cares," Johanns said. "It's so far away. People are so tired of races and politics."
"I'm just focused on doing what's right for Nebraska," Nelson said. "If I do that, the politics will take care of itself."
But the numbers sent Democratic and Republican partisans into the spin cycle.
David Kramer, chairman of the Nebraska Republican Party, said the poll shows that Nelson's days are numbered as the only Democrat holding major office in a predominantly Republican state. World-Herald Poll© U.S. senator in 2006: If the race was between Ben Nelson (D) and Mike Johanns (R), for whom would you vote?
Nelson 41% Johanns 38% Other/unsure 21% Statistical margin of error: ±3.1 percentage points
Source: Poll of likely voters by RKM Research and Communications
"Basically the race is a dead heat, and those are numbers I would take in a heartbeat," Kramer said. "Given the demographics of the state and the fact that Ben Nelson is an island in the Democratic Party, he's got to be sitting there thinking, 'I'm in big trouble.' "
Barry Rubin, executive director of the Nebraska Democratic Party, said he liked the numbers, particularly those indicating Nelson had the support of one in four Republicans and led Johanns in Lincoln, where Johanns was twice elected mayor.
"Those show you just how strong Ben Nelson is," Rubin said. "Mike Johanns will have an uphill fight, and we'll be waiting to join that fight."
Johanns has not said yet whether he would seek to knock Nelson out of the Senate seat he won in 2000. Johanns said last week he won't make a decision until sometime next year.
But Johanns has given strong indications he is likely to challenge the Democrat.
He said last summer he would be excited by the chance to work with U.S. Sen. Chuck Hagel, R-Neb., in Washington. Hagel hosted a reception during the Republican National Convention in New York, where he introduced Johanns to influential friends who could assist him in a Senate bid.
Nelson suggested in an interview that he thinks Johanns is running. "I'm somewhat confused, because I thought he announced his candidacy in New York," Nelson said. "It sounded like an announcement."
For his part, Nelson has made it clear he is running, already having amassed a campaign bankroll exceeding $1 million two years before the election.
The potential match is filled with political intrigue.
Nelson will be trying to hold on as the lone Democrat in Congress representing a state that Tuesday's election showed is trending increasingly Republican.
Hagel, the senior senator from Nebraska, has made it clear he will openly work against his Senate colleague.
With Hagel and others, including perhaps President Bush, urging Republicans to stick with their party, the matchup would be a real test of Nebraska voters' historical independence. That's something that successful Democrats such as Nelson, J.J. Exon and Bob Kerrey have come to rely on.
And if you think there were a lot of television ads during this past election cycle, you haven't seen anything yet, said Loree Bykerk, a political science professor at the University of Nebraska at Omaha. Any tossup Senate seat is a prize both national parties would fight hard for.
"The ads would start early, and probably pretty quickly get negative," Bykerk said. "It will give us a sense of what it's like to be in a presidential battleground state."
The World-Herald poll of the Senate matchup was conducted by RKM Research and Communications from Oct. 15 to 20.
The survey of 1,007 likely Nebraska voters indicated Nelson led Johanns 46 percent to 33 percent in Omaha, and 43 percent to 33 percent in Lincoln. Johanns led outside those cities 40 percent to 39 percent.
Nelson led 68 percent to 15 percent among Democrats and 39 percent to 32 percent among independents. Johanns led among GOP voters 56 percent to 24 percent.
Nelson did not want to go into a detailed discussion of the poll's numbers. But he said he has always relied on support from Democrats, independents and what he called "enlightened Republicans."
The poll indicates such a coalition could again be built against Johanns.
"I have clearly reflected Nebraska values and always put Nebraska ahead of any party," Nelson said. "That's what Nebraskans want."
Johanns and Kramer said they thought Nelson was "maxed out" in the poll, particularly in support from Republicans.
They questioned where the Democrat would find the votes needed to push his support over 50 percent. Kramer noted Nelson barely hit the 50 percent figure in his 2000 Senate race against Don Stenberg.
"That is going to be difficult," Johanns said. "Whoever would look at these numbers would say that's a problem for him."
is Johanns pro-life? I don't know much about his positions. Also, Nelson was rumored to do a party switch a few years back but didn't, obviously.
Nelson will vote with Bush on nearly everything. Along with Bayh, Lieberman, pryor, and a couple others, he is one of only a few conservative D's left.
Nelson could protect his seat with a party switch.
I believe so.
Of course, democrats with "moral values" are in high demand right now.
This is good. For filibuster purposes this gets us one closer to 60. Although that won't matter if Frist goes w/ the "nuclear option."
I have heard conflicting reports re: filibuster breaking. Trent Lott alluded to the nuclear option, and then others have spoke of coming up w/ the required 60 votes.
Just MHO
He is ideologically closer to the GOP, and there is virtually no way he loses in Nebraska as a Republican. On the other hand, as a RAT, he will be one of our top targets every single election.
Make the switch Ben.
I think Ben Nelson will switch to the GOP early in 2004. It would give him better committee assignments, more influence in the Senate, and would assure his reelection in 2006 (the RNC would certainly talk Johanns out of challenging Nelson in a primary, since the party wants to encourage conservative Democrats to switch to the GOP).
early in 2004 = early in 2005
Hey Ben switch now or be defeated. Come on overm the water is fine.
Switch or be Daschled, the choice is yours Senator Nelson!
If he's smart he'll decide to become a republican.
You some it up in 4 words. I love it. Extra points for making Daschle into a verb.
This is the time to hold Nelson's feet to the fire, Nebraskans. With Nebraska voting overwhelmingly for Pres. Bush, he needs to be reminded that his votes will be very closely watched to see if he is truly representing Nebraskans in the US Senate in the coming term. If not, he should expect to be replaced.
thank you! Actually I think there's a chance BOTH Nelsons will be Daschled in '06 becauase either Jeb Bush or Katherine Harris can run against Bill Nelson!
I don't want to here the people here talk about how conservative Ben Nelson is. HE IS NOT!
He is a politician, first, last, and everything inbetween. He has been forced to side with the President from time to time to give him a chance at re-election in two years. However, whenever and wherever he can, he votes with the liberal Demoncrats.
He was Governor here for 8 long years. He jump started the anti-gunowners movement in this state, brought in outsiders (like Sarah Brady), and signed every bill that the rest of the legislature was able to push through. He is NOT pro-life, he is NOT anti-tax. He left this state (Nebraska) with an approximately $300 million dollar bill for incompetent administration when a nuclear storage place was being planned.
Unfortunately, he got where he is because Republicans ran strong conservatives against him that were seen as too extreme. Johanns is not seen as too extreme, but he is MUCH better than Nelson. I hope, hope, hope that Johanns will win.
Good point. I personally don't expect to see a party switch out of him.
All Johanns has to do to win is prove Nelson less conservative than he says he is. BTW, Nelson would claim to be pro-life (scores a 7% by NARAL on pro-choice voting record).
Exposing the Nelson failure on the nuclear storage location to average Nebraskans may be all it takes.
Ben doesn't have to switch to stay everyone i know likes him. He stands for the greatness of the Democratic party and Sometimes goes the other way. I would love to see a bipartison ticket for president in 2008 with Nelson president and Hagel vp or visa-versa
Impossible. They are both residents of the same state so that would be constitutionally prohibited.
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