Posted on 11/02/2004 9:29:08 PM PST by FreedomNotSafety
Ed Bradley just said 2/3 of the counties around Cinci are slow. They will go overwhelmingly Bush. It is classic Ohio Jim Rhodes politics. Cleveland heavy demo, Columbus near equal, Cinci slight GOP, The rest heavy GOP. Team Bush followed it, they turned out the vote in the counties except the cities.
Fox is saying that there probably aren't alternative paths to victory. It is win Ohio, or lose. Happily, it looks like Bush will pull out Ohio, as there are only about 800k votes yet to be counted, and Bush has a 130k lead.
Slow?
That is an extremely accurate Ohio politics analysis.
The problem here is that it is looking like Bush's final lead will definitely be under about 150,000... this will result in days and maybe weeks of litigation over provisional ballots, etc. Argh. (This would not be a problem if Bush also carries Wisconsin, but that is not looking good now).
I just spent about 20 minutes analyzing Ohio county by county.
My conclusion is that Kerry could only gain on Bush by about 50 thousand votes or so of the 130k or so he is behind. And that is BEST case scenario for Kerry.
Looks more like he'll only make up around another 20k if that when the county the Cleveland is in finishes up. (Cuyahoga)
Bones
Yeah, Me and My wife helped turne out the vote hear near Dayton. Together we reached perhaps about 500 voters...Thank_you for saving the nation from Lurch...
Kristol says Kerry would need to get 60 % or so of the remianing votes.
Only viable alt path is NV - 5, NM - 5, WI - 10, AK - 3. That gets us to 269. HI or NH with 4 don't help.
Carry Me Ohio...
http://www.puremusic.com/clips11/20skmcarr.ram
(a little musical interlude)
What a day! From what I have heard, W seems very likely to nab Ohio and, of course, that would be it.
As an aside, the MSM fell hook, line and sinker for the bogus exit polls. Especially on MSNBC, they were all smiles until about 8:10pm when the frowns started to appear.
Now, if they had read some threads on FR around 3:00 to 3:30pm this afternoon, they would have known that the exit polls were crap. (Just icing on the cake).
Cheers.
You'd better be right. I want this to be over!
While he did lose Cuyahoga by 167,814 that year, his current lead plus the outstanding votes from Hamilton County should be enough to put him over the top!
Bush should win Ohio. 80% precincts are now closed. He's looking pretty good.
It just may be a 269-269 tie. I hope not. I would hate to hear another 4 years of 'HE STOLE THE ELECTION'!!
If the margin is +100K, I don't think the public will stand for it.
Kerry will have to concede and even if he doesn't, the public will consider that President Bush won and proceed accordingly.
Big difference between 150,000 and 537 votes in 2000 Florida. No way Kerry can make that up post election.
As a proud Buckeye, nothing would make me feel better than our great state putting President Bush over the edge!!
Mike Allen a popular prosecutor was running un-opposed, but he couldn't keep his pants up. That created a need for a write race for both the Dems and the Pubs.
That is slowing down the process. Cincinnati may go Kerry, but the county will go Bush.
It's my county and on behalf of the citizens of Hamilton County, We're sorry to keep America up so late.
I wouldn't bet on Bush winning anything other than New Mexico.
I'm with you! C'mon Buckeyes! Let's do it!
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