Posted on 11/01/2004 5:53:07 PM PST by delapaz
I inputted the numbers into my spreadsheet.
In a perfect replay of 2000,
If Each county in Ohio voted according to the same percentages Republican and Democrat
With the same turnout figures
Bush gets 157,431 more votes
Kerry gets 120,780 more votes than Kerry did.
That makes for a 37,000 vote advantage which would increase Bush’s margin of 166,000 to over 200,000.
source: http://www.sos.state.oh.us/sos/news/mediaguide.htm
Keep in mind that I did not factor out the huge 163,000 Franklin increase which was due almost entirely to their not purging any inactive voters. Franklin was almost half/half so it did not matter that much in the final tally. I left it in.
Here are the top counties that lost voters
Hamilton -12,373
Urban Cincinnati mainly, 54% Bush but main declines are in City of Cincinnati, Democrat areas.
Belmont -7,052
Appalachian down near WV. Hard times and hard population loss. County went 54% for Gore in 2000.
Jefferson -5,623
Another Appalachian county. Bush/Gore 43/50
Cuyahoga -4,919
The Democratic Home base of Ohio. Lost much more than this but were replaced by 160,000 newly registered voters that historically vote at a 47% turnout. ouch.
Ashtabula -3,464
Far NE corner. Apparently in severe decline.
Bush/Gore 45/50
Athens -3,256
Home of Ohio University in a rural county. So much for getting the students energized. P. Diddy washed out here. Bush/Gore 38/52
Now for the top growing counties:
County - % voted for Bush in 2000 - New Registered Voters in 2004
Franklin 48% 163,771 - no inactive voter purge + lots of registration activity = 277,000 inactive voters on rolls unable to vote.
With a few exceptions these are all Suburban counties experiencing high to normal population growth.
Warren 70% 29,383
Stark 49% 27,145
Butler 63% 21,842
Delaware 66% 20,544
Montgomery 48% 20,124
Medina 56% 15,795
Mahoning 35% 15,128
Summit 43% 14,669
Richland 57% 13,300
Licking 60% 12,600
Clermont 67% 11,637
Lorain 43% 10,619
Fairfield 62% 9,954
Conclusions: If the Bush campaign can get his people turned out, he wins Ohio handily.
Source: http://www.sos.state.oh.us/sos/news/mediaguide.htm
I agree and I believe this will happen.
Nice analysis.
Great analysis backed up by a lot of spadework. Bravo!
Fox News Channel just reported that the Federal 6th Circuit Court of Appeals over-turned the lower court ruling about letting Republican Election observers monitor Franklin County and other rat areas in the state where the voter registration is higher than the population.
don't forget that more people registered to vote in franklin county that LIVE in franklin county.
Thanks let's hope they turn out for Bush.
This looks like good work to me and I appreciate your doing it.
Question: What are the chances that the Dem vote will increase in terms of percentage in areas which have seen economic decline? Or do you think the Gore vote represents the top even in those areas?
You have Warren listed as the top growing county (in registrations). Warren will go 80-20 for Kerry, unfortunately. I'm not pleased, but I grew up there; it's a rathole and not coincidentally it's democratic.
CT-- take a look and let us what you think about this and how strong you think we are in Ohio.
Isn't this implying that the Democrats did NOT, in fact, register "three times" or "six times" the number of new voters as Republicans?
Yep, it puts that lie to rest. The registration activity done by the Democrats was running in place merely to keep from losing more registered voters due to population loss.
uh don't misplace Warren the county with Warren the City in Ohio.
Warren the City is quite Dem like you said
But Warren County in SW Ohio is the super conservative suburban county NE of Cincinnati. Trust me, that's where I live ;-)
Oh yeah. Oddly enough, I lived in the city of Warren for 17 years, and then Montgomery County right next to Warren county for six more years. Stupid error.
Thanks!
Any chance "delapaz" is in honor of Prof. Bernardo DeLaPaz?
You may prove me wrong, but I believe the allegation is that there are more registered voters in Franklin County than there are person of age to vote. Since they did not purge any of the 163,771 who have been inactive, those registrants are counted in the total registered voters.
This is only a big deal if bodies show up to vote in those names - which is why we want poll watchers.
Yes, one of my favorite characters from one of my favorite books.
According to the dispatch there are 277,000 inactive voters now in Franklin County, you are absolutely right that they have not done a voter purge since before the 2000 election, hence the high total.
However, according to Ohio election law, an inactive voter can not just show up and vote. If they do, they must prove their residence and identify themselves. I'm not too worried about the fraud angle with the inactives.
here is the story on Franklin County
http://www.nixguy.com/index.php?p=160
The democrats have pissed off the Republican base with their fraud, lies, and evil minded behavior.
The mean spirited and vindictive tactics are going to come home to roost. I personally am taking 5 voters to the polls tomorrow, all Bush.
If it aint close - they can't cheat.
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