Bush/Kerry visits to swing states (Bush offense, Kerry plays defense, gives up NV and NM?)

ABC News | 11/1/04 | Cableguy

[Cableguy]

		Bush		Kerry
		Bush	GOP	Kerry	Dem
	EV	Visit	Visit	Visit	Visit
Tier I: Heavy advertising
FL	27	10/31	11/1 R	11/1	11/1 E
PA	21	11/1	10/31 J	10/25	11/1 T
OH	20	11/1	11/1 L	11/1	11/1 E
MI	17	10/30	11/1 L	11/1	10/31 G
MN	10	10/30	11/1 N	10/27	11/1 E
WI	10	11/1	11/1 J	11/1	11/1 G
IA	7	11/1	10/31 C	10/30	11/1 E
NM	5	11/1	10/31 C	10/26	10/31 B
NV	5	10/14	11/1 C	10/26	10/31 C
NH	4	10/29	10/30 R	10/31	11/1 S
Tier II: No/some advertising
NJ	15	10/18	10/31 T	6/14	11/1 H
WA	11		7/30 C	8/28	10/8 A
NC	15	9/17		9/7	10/29 E
VA	13	8/9		7/27
MO	11	10/9	10/21 E	10/8	10/11 E
TN	11	8/31		9/1
AZ	10	10/13		10/13
CO	9	10/25	11/1 C	10/23	10/30 G
LA	9		7/1 C	9/9
OR	7	10/15	10/18 J	8/13	10/13 E
AR	6		8/3 C	5/13	10/31 B
WV	5	9/10	10/18 C	9/6	9/29 E
ME	4	9/23	10/31 T		10/30 E
HI	4		10/31 C		10/30 G
Notes:	1. State colors: red = Bush leading in polls, blue = Kerry leading, black = tied or likely to win
	2. Visit = last vist to state (red=last 4 days, blue = last 8 days, green = future events)
	4. L=Laura, C=Cheney, J=Jenna, E=Edwards, T= Teresa, L=Liz Edwards A=Heinz, E=Evans, B=Bill C, G=Gore, P=P Bush, R=Rudy, C=Clark, S=Shaheen
	B=B Bush, E=L Cheney, D=L Dole, C=C Heinz, Z=Zell, H=Hillary, D=Dean, G=Gonzalez, R=Romney, F=Franks, H=41,M=McCain, T=Pataki, N=Coleman

[Cableguy]

Bush has visited everyone of the key swing states in the last 4 days. Kerry thinks he has PA and MN in the bag. He has probably given up on NM and NV, since he hasn't gone back since 10/26. Bush does an incredible 6 state 7 event trip today. Kerry does 4 states and 5 events ending in Cleveland, which he thinks he can steal from Bush.

Tomorrow, Bush is supposed to go back to DC after voting. Kerry goes back to Boston. Both may do TV interviews throughout the day. Surprise visits to swing states tomorrow could happen also.

[Cableguy]

ping

[Alberta's Child]

I think it's the other way around. I believe Kerry may have quietly conceded MN without telling anyone. My prediction is that the Upper Midwest is going to be the biggest surprise of the night tomorrow.

[Cableguy]

Most of the polls show Kerry tied of ahead in MN. So why would you think that Kerry has given up the state? Kerry is still advertising heavily there, outspending Bush.

[Alberta's Child]

The Minnesota GOP may be the best-organized state group in the country. Word on the street is that the place has been flooded with hordes of campaign volunteers from safe GOP states in the last two weeks.

[The Shrew]

I LOVE being on your ping list. Thanks for the great info!

Regards,

TS

[LS]

I'm hearing that despite the volume of advertising, which you continually emphasize, it is the SPECIFICITY and quality of the advertising that is winning the game in MN, espec. a snowmobile/sugar beet ad that is really doing heavy damage to Kerry.

[Cableguy]

As a quant kind of guy, it is hard to quantify "quality." But you can measure #, $ of ads as well as polls.

But having worked with the management of Arctic Cat in Thief River Falls, MN in my former life, I can tell you that if Bushies can get their messages in that region about Kerry, Bush will sweep that area. But is it enough to overcome Kerry's support in the Twin cities? That will decide the race.