Posted on 10/27/2004 8:26:01 AM PDT by Mount Athos
The US island state of Hawaii has been hit by a political earthquake, turning the tropical paradise into a new battleground just days ahead of the country's presidential election.
Two polls this week showed that President George W. Bush (news - web sites) has suddenly caught up with Democrat John Kerry (news - web sites) in the traditionally Democratic bastion, putting him in a position to become the first Republican presidential candidate to take Hawaii in 20 years.
The news that the two are in a dead heat here has badly shaken Democratic voters who until this week had taken it for granted that the tropical paradise would back Kerry in one of the tightest elections in years.
"I am astonished, truly astonished," said Democratic supporter Jerry Comcowich, as he stood under the palm trees at the Hawaii Kai Golf Course, overlooking surfers slamming through the shore break on nearby Sandy Beach.
"At first I was amused by the thought that after all these years of abject neglect (by) the national party leadership, the voters in Hawaii may actually decide the outcome of a presidential election.
"That thought lasted about five seconds, then I became horrified. What if Bush takes the Hawaii vote?" said the dismayed specialist in ocean and earth studies at the University of Hawaii.
A Honolulu Advertiser survey of 600 likely voters on Saturday put the two candidates almost even in Hawaii, with 43.3 percent backing Bush against 42.6 percent for Kerry, with 12 percent undecided.
The poll was conducted between October 13-18 and had a margin of error of around four percentage points.
The shock to Democratic party faithful here only worsened Sunday when a Honolulu Star-Bulletin and KITK-TV survey showed Bush ahead by 46 percent to 45 for Kerry, compared to August when Kerry had a seven point lead.
That poll of 612 likely voters was carried out between October 17-20 and had a margin of error of around four points.
In the 2000 election, Bush also appeared to surge in Hawaii in the closing days of the campaign, but ended up with only 37 percent of the vote -- a local landslide for Democratic candidate Al Gore.
"How can we elect a congressional delegation that rivals that of Massachusetts as far as being liberal, and at the same time vote for Bush?" asked businessman Garry Francell, disbelievingly.
A shell-shocked Comcowich believes that some Hawaiian voters are suddenly reluctant to change presidents because Bush has succeeded in making them feel fearful and uncertain amid the war on terror and in Iraq.
The state's Republican governor Linda Lingle, who campaigned on the US campaign with Bush, says the president's leadership is the key, and that the strong economy here and Bush's attention to the state are helping him.
And experts said that while most of Hawaii's population remained of Asian origin, more caucasian Americans had retired here, possibly swaying the voting demographic.
Since achieving statehood in 1959, the Democratic bastion of Hawaii has only gone Republican only twice in a presidential election, with Richard Nixon in 1972 and Ronald Reagan (news - web sites) in 1984.
While the state only has four electoral college votes, they could prove critical if the vote goes down to the wire on November 2 as widely expected.
Reeling Kerry campaign officials have raced to but last-minute television time for commercials that could begin appearing as early as Tuesday evening, marking the first surge in political advertising here in 20 years.
Hawaii, the newest state in the union, "has always felt like the poor stepchild of the United States, a mere tropical playground," said Mark Stitham, a psychiatrist who lives on the waterfront in Kailua.
"With less than one percent of the US population, Hawaii's importance in presidential elections has been less than insignificant," Stitham said.
"And being several time zones away (from most states), the election is virtually over before the Hawaii voter has even gone to the polls."
Stitham, a Republican, said Kerry's "patrician attitude" may be hurting him in the easy-going Hawaiian islands, where a "hang loose" local style is more the norm. "But I'd still bet on Kerry taking Hawaii," he said.
While supporters of both Kerry and Bush were stunned by Bush's last-minute spurt, many Hawaiians were thrilled by the possibility that their state could at last play a role in choosing the leader of the free world.
"It turns our perspectives upside down," said Doug Carlson, a public relations counsellor in Honolulu. "It will be the joke of all jokes if it comes down to the wire and Hawaii makes the difference," he said.
"Maybe now Hawaii residents will get to know how it feels" to be in a battleground state, Carlson said.
If Kerry's record didn't give a reason for people to be afraid then this election would be over.....
Maybe Laura can go to there and do a day's worth of stumping???? Might even tip a % or two in the President's favor.
The most unreported story before the election is the fact that Kerry has NEVER polled above Bush on leadership and Iraq in state or national polls.
This is a war-time election and the United States knows it.
The ghost of Naval Air Station Barbers Point rises from the grave...BOO!
Contrast that with the President's theme that every person longs for and deserves freedom... His warm smile... His genuine belief in God... His obvious love for his wife and family... His ability to laugh at himself... His love for our troops...
All these things are intangibles that polls are not good at tracking. I fear a Kerry presidency, but I am becoming more certain of a Bush win.
A_R
I am beginning to feel like this could be another Republican landslide victory. I will still keep my fingers crossed and visit the local GOP County headquarters, like I did this past weekend, but I am beginning to think that short of wholesale and massive voter fraud, this could be a Bush landslide (at least from the perspective of the electoral college).
I think the twins and Grandma Barb would be a great trio to send to Hawaii. They represent, IMHO, Hawaii's being our youngest State with the wisdom of an older generation.
Calling Karl Rove.....PLEASE?
I am thrilled for Hawaii. My parents are part-time residents, thought they don't vote there. They will be heading there on the 4th.
ALOHA, W!!!
THis may be a replay of CA from 2000. Polls late showed a close race and the Dem base came out in droves on election day and Gore had an easy victory.
If the Democrats were as smart as some people on Free Republic give them credit for they would in the majority party, not the minority one.
Hawaii is a double-digit Democrat stronghold.
Even with low Democrat turnout it still should be strong Democrat.
Now, combined with the tie in NJ and the fact that the Democrats are spending money in Hawaii shows that it is truly in play.
No kidding. I have a neighbor that is a democrat operative, and very active in state campaigns (Washington). They left for Hawaii last week, and for some reason made a point to tell me the trip was "planned months ago". Go figure.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.