Rasmussen: Late deciding voters breaking for Bush

Rasmussen Reports ^

[MichaelTN04]

Survey of 1,000 Likely Voters

Oct 25, 2004

October 26, 2004--Seventy-one percent (71%) of voters made their final decision on their Presidential vote before the fall campaign season began. A Rasmussen Reports survey found that 12% decided about a month ago, 9% a week ago, and 5% in the past few days.

Those who made up their mind earlier in the process tend to be more supportive of Senator Kerry. Those who made up their mind later in the process are more supportive of the President. This is consistent with the fact that Senator Kerry led in most polls through mid-August and has generally trailed since Labor Day and the Republican National Convention.

Among voters who made up their minds in the Spring of 2004 or sooner, Kerry is favored by a 51% to 48% margin. This obviously includes some who decided to vote for anybody-but-Bush since 36% of voters made up their mind before the Democratic nominee was selected.

The candidates are essentially tied among those who made up their minds during the summer. However, those who decided in the past month favor President Bush by a 57% to 38% margin.

Our sample included 136 Likely Voters who made up their mind over the last week. These voters also appear to be breaking in the President's direction but the small sample size prevents any definitive assessment.

There are very few undecided voters today. Those who have recently made their final decision are most likely firming up a choice for the candidate they have been leaning towards for some period of time.

--------------------

I find it amazing. I think the reason the polls have gotten closer is not because undecideds are going for Kerry, but because he's getting a more solid base. For Kerry, he's going to have to ace his base, in order to win.

Bush on the other hand is performing really...well... with the last month of undecided voters. This leads me to believe that the "gut check" that people are making now and definitely will make next Tuesday, "when you're all alone in the voting booth" (Bush Campaign AD), are saying "I can't trust this Kerry guy."

If undecideds broke just EVEN between the two, Kerry is "toast," with some french butter on it. He needs at least a 2 to 1 break for him. Right now, Bush is almost getting that. And that's what Zogby is confirming as well, when he asked "are undecideds breaking for Bush?"

[Tom_Busch]

Yippeee!

[goldstategop]

Its over. The "undecideds" are breaking FOR the incumbent. Kerry would have needed to win all those left to have a chance and it isn't happening.

[Darkwolf377]

" However, those who decided in the past month favor President Bush by a 57% to 38% margin."

The single most encouraging thing I've read in the past month.

[skaterboy]

What will the result of the election be?
Bush wins by more than 5 percent 34%
Kerry wins by less than 5 percent 25%
Bush wins by less than 5 percent 24%
Kerry wins by more than 5 percent 17%
Total Votes: 516,598

[Lunkhead_01]

Pat Cadell did some research in the early 1980s and found undecides tend to break for the incumbent at almost a 3 to 2 rate, that's about what we are seeing.

If you go to electoral-vote.com and divide up the undecideds so Kerry comes out ahead in the states he is closest in, he needs them to break for him 2 to 1.

Kerry is French Indochinese toast.

[MichaelTN04]

" However, those who decided in the past month favor President Bush by a 57% to 38% margin."

The single most encouraging thing I've read in the past month.

----

No kidding. After the debates, after the surprises, after the "big mo," Kerry can't even muster over 40% of undecideds the past month? Dang.

Let's hope the trend continues. My biggest concern this whole election was Bush would go into election day +2 or 3 with 4% undecided and have them break heavily for Kerry.

Now I know that probably won't happen.

[zarf]

The single most encouraging thing I've read in the past month.

Word from Florida (from a well placed Jewish power player) is that many Democratic Jews are going for Bush. This leads me to believe Florida is probably well in Bush's grasp.

I still think that results from Florida will telegraph who becomes President.

[West Coast Conservative]

However, those who decided in the past month favor President Bush by a 57% to 38% margin.

That's the best news I've heard all day. If the undecideds don't break for Kerry, which it seems like they won't, Bush wins this election.

And, here are some quotes that should scare the DUmmies, who are counting on new voters and undecideds:

"If Kerry, as suggested, is looking to undecideds, look again -- there may not be enough left."
-John Zogby

"You know what they call a candidate who's counting on a lot of new voters? A loser."
-James Carville

[Darkwolf377]

"Pat Cadell did some research in the early 1980s and found undecides tend to break for the incumbent at almost a 3 to 2 rate, that's about what we are seeing."

He is one of the few--I have heard others, but not many--who debunk the myth of the late-breakers going for the challenger in the Prez race--they go for the challenger in the state-level races, perhaps, but not in the Prez.

[West Coast Conservative]

Luntz (a pollster) said on MSNBC tonight that he sees 40% of Jews in Florida voting Bush. That would over power any GOTV the Dems have in Florida.

[dead]

If undecideds broke just EVEN between the two, Kerry is "toast,"

[Lunkhead_01]

They apparently don't even go to the challenger in state and local races. That's a myth started by someone who wanted you to believe something that's not true. It's sort of like me saying, "Let's have lunch in Lexington, the beautiful capital of Kentucky." Yes, Lexington, Kentucky is a beautiful city, but Frankfort is the capital of Kentucky, not Lexington.

[Question Liberal Authority]

WHAT late deciding voters? IIRC, Rassmussen has had less than 7% undecideds in his survey every day basically forever.

If they're breaking for Bush, how come his crack monkey poll has him tied with Kerry at 48% each? If there's any kind of trend for Bush, why is his chart the most trendless chart in the history of charts?

[Darkwolf377]

Am I the only on here who can't keep this big grin off my face after reading this article?

[Darkwolf377]

I dunno, I think it's perfectly believable that people would vote for new blood in local races that don't matter much--I know that in the case of certain offices I always vote for the non-incumbent.

[Republic Rocker]

YEEEEEESSSSS!!!!!!!!!!! GOOD NIGHT ALL...SEEE U BRIGHT AND EARLY....!!!!!!

GWB04

[LegalEagle61]

"You know what they call a candidate who's counting on a lot of new voters? A loser."
-James Carville

You know, Carville, for once, is right-- Kerry IS a loser!

[Lunkhead_01]

You may believe people are looking for new blood in local and state races, but check the incumbent re-election rates after the election. You will see that on the state and local level we are more likely to return incumbents than to turn them out and are much more likely to turn out a president than a local or state political hack.

Since the 1976 election we turned out:
Ford in 1976
Carter in 1980
Bush 41 in 1992
and we had no incumbent in 1988 and 2000
So we had the following elections with incumbents running:
1976, 1980, 1984, 1992, and 1996.
We fired three and kept two. That means we are 50% more likely to fire and incumbent president than to return him to office! And our rate of re-electing an incumbent president since 1976 is only 40%! That's the number the state and local hacks have to beat.

[bethtopaz]

I think it was Cheney who said that when a Senator makes a decision, it's not "life or death", but when the President makes a decision, it can be, and people want someone they can trust. Nuf said.