Snapshot of Bush/Kerry visits, polls, ads (Bush/RNC getting outspent $22.2 to $15.5)

ABC News, RealClearPolitics, CNN/TNS Media Intelligence/CMAG | 10/26/04 | Cableguy

[Cableguy]

			Bush					Kerry
		Poll	Bush	GOP	Bush	RNC	Rep	Kerry	Dem	Kerry	DNC	Dem
	EV	Margin	Visit	Visit	Ads	Ads	527s	Visit	Visit	Ads	Ads	527s
Tier I: Heavy advertising, true battleground states									10	States
FL	27	1.0	10/23	10/26 C	2,687	X	466	10/29	10/27 E	3,491	1,906	1,284
PA	21	3.3	10/27	10/26 Z	1,700	X	336	10/25	10/28 D	2,100	718	1
OH	20	0.8	10/29	10/25 C	2,115	X	881	10/28	10/26 L	2,236	1,790	433
MI	17	3.9	10/27	10/20 C	592	X	0	10/25	10/26 L	1,150	32	0
MN	10	0.3	10/20	10/25 C	256	0	58	10/27	10/28 E	528	223	0
WI	10	1.8	10/26	10/22 L	1,160	X	324	10/28	10/27 L	1,359	676	140
IA	7	3.5	10/25	10/22 C	814	X	259	10/27	10/26 L	1,165	588	36
NM	5	3.6	10/24	10/23 C	605	X	221	10/26	10/22 C	941	267	34
NV	5	5.8	10/14	10/14 L	390	X	59	10/26	10/14 T	433	313	48
NH	4	2.4	10/1	10/26 Z	542	0	0	10/25	10/22 A	274	327	0
Tier II: No/some advertising, conceded or likely Bush/Kerry states									14	States
NJ	15	8.2	10/18	10/18 L	0	0	0	6/14	10/7 E	0	0	0
WA	11	7.5		7/30 C	12	0	0	8/28	10/8 A	132	0	0
NC	15	6.3	9/17		0	0	0	9/7	10/6 E	0	0	0
VA	13	4.0	8/9		0	0	0	7/27		0	0	0
MO	11	5.3	10/9	10/21 E	0	0	192	10/8	10/11 E	0	0	0
TN	11	20.0	8/31		0	0	0	9/1		0	0	0
AZ	10	9.0	10/13		0	0	0	10/13		0	0	0
CO	9	4.8	10/25	10/23 C	605	X	100	10/23	10/18 L	910	185	149
LA	9	9.0		7/1 C	0	0	0	9/9		0	0	0
OR	7	4.5	10/15	10/18 J	154	0	0	8/13	10/13 E	389	0	0
AR	6	2.0		8/3 C	0	0	0	5/13		0	0	0
WV	5	4.0	9/10	10/18 C	350	X	0	9/6	9/29 E	122	207	10
ME	4	8.5	9/23	9/29 J	192	0	0		10/23 L	276	214	15
HI	4	0.9			0	0	0			0	0	0
Notes:	1. State colors: red = Bush leading in polls, blue = Kerry leading, black = tied
	2. Visit = last vist to state (red=last 4 days, blue = last 8 days, green = future events)
	3. Number of ads shown during the week (red=more, blue=less, black=same). Ads exclude nationwide cable buys
	4. Visits (L=Laura, C=Cheney, J=Jenna/Barbara, E=Edwards, T= Teresa, L=Liz Edwards A=Andrew Heinz)
	(B=Barbara Bush, E=Liz Cheney, D=Liz Dole, C=Chris Heinz, Z=Zell, H=Hillary, D=Dean)
	5. WV ads are aimed at rural PA, OH voters per Matthew Dowd, Kerry pulled ads in WV
	6. RNC (2 are independent of Bush campaign) ads not showing up in this report
	According to Chicago Tribune, RNC running ads in 10 states as shown above for $4.7 million
	7. Kerry pulled ads in CO, canceled trip to Denver
Source: ABC News, RealClearPolitics, CNN/TNS Media Intelligence/CMAG (ads: 10/17-10/23)

[Cableguy]

Ads (doesn't include nationwide cable)
- Bush/RNC spent $15.5, Kerry/DNC $22.2 last week, and this week spending is expected to be $18 for Bush/RNC and $21 Kerry DNC
- Rep 527s spent $6.2 and Dem 527s $2.8 last week, and this week spending is expected to be $12 for pro-Bush and $3 for anti-Bush
- Kerry dropped ads in CO and cancelled a planned visit
- Both are now airing ads in Hawaii
- Bush ran the largest share of his ads in the Tampa market, followed by Miami and Orlando, while Kerry focused the greatest intensity on Orlando, followed by Tampa and Miami

Visits
- Kerry is concentrating on 10 states
- Kerry is visiting NM for 2nd time in 4 days
- Bush hasn't visited NH for a while and MN for nearly a week (RNC isn't airing ads in those 2 states either)
- Bush hasn't visited NV since 10/14 (has it locked?)
- Bush is concentrating on OH this week (at least 3 visits), especially with Schwarzenegger on Friday

For last week's Snapshot, here is the Link

[Cableguy]

ping

[Josh in PA]

Looks like Dems smell blood in Colorado.

[SuperSonic]

[DonnDe]

See footnote 7.

[Cableguy]

Dems are pulling out of Colorado. This was last week. Since then, Kerry has cancelled all of his ads, although DNC ads are still running at a lower level.

[WCoastRepublican]

I dont get it... where is the RNC money going??

[WoodstockCat]

I'm guessing but I think the RNC found a line in the CFR that said if they used "John Kerry and his liberal allies in Congress" that RNC ads could in effect be Bush ads but I'm just guessing.

[tellw]

Bush would be outspent this week except that the Pro-Bush 527's are outspending anti-Bush 527s by $9M.

[TNCMAXQ]

Interesting that the good 527s are spending more this week. Have Soros and the other scumbags given up, or run out of $$? ;)

[B Knotts]

So, all together that's:

Bush: $30 mil
Kerry: $24 mil

[Tuxedo]

Good question... where are the ads from the RNC? The Unions have fired up their ad campaign here in Ohio. Many are airing on WTAM during the Rush Limbaugh show, which to me is them wasting their money. No ads though from the RNC in Ohio. Some good 527 ads from a group called Let Freedom Ring.

[dalight]

I live in Ohio and I am seeing RNC ads. Something about this chart is screwy.

[Cableguy]

My chart says RNC is airing ads in OH. But I don't know how many aired last week.