Posted on 10/23/2004 8:24:20 AM PDT by Theodore R.
GOP Could Pick Up 5 House Seats by John Gizzi Posted Oct 22, 2004
With a week to go before Americans vote in all 435 congressional districts, Republicans look poised to expand their majority in the U.S. House of Representatives, based largely on favorable redistricting since the 2000 census.
In the swing states of Michigan, Ohio and Pennsylvania, Republicans managed to dominate the redistricting process after the census, raising the number of safe Republican seats there.
In Texas, a masterful (if controversial and belated) redistricting is now almost certain to yield the bulk of national Republican gains in this election cycle.
In California, New Jersey, and Virginia, Democratic and Republican state legislators joined together to craft “incumbent protection plans” that made current House members of both parties invulnerable.
Because of this post-2000 redistricting process, the 2004 election cycle is likely to see fewer competitive House races than any in recent memory. Currently in the House, there are 227 Republicans, 205 Democrats, and 1 Independent (Bernie Sanders of Vermont) who votes with Democrats. There are also two vacant GOP seats that were created when Republican Rep. Porter Goss of Florida resigned to become CIA director and Doug Bereuter (Neb.) resigned to take a private sector job.
In Texas, Republicans are likely to pick up six Democratic seats and hold two others in incumbent vs. incumbent races. In other states, three districts currently held by Democrats are now leaning toward the GOP candidate.
On the other side of the ledger, two districts now held by Republican are likely to fall to the Democrats, while two other Republican-controlled districts are leaning Democratic.
Overall, I predict a net gain of five seats for the Republicans. Furthermore, Republican Connie Mack IV will hold onto Goss’s vacant seat for the GOP. That means the next House of Representatives will have 234 Republicans, 197 Democrats, and 1 Independent. In the chart below, incumbents are in bold type.
Texas Seats Likely To Go Republican
DISTRICT REPUBLICAN DEMOCRAT ANALYSIS
Texas-1 Louis Gohmert Max Sandlin Former State District Judge Gohmert got big edge over Sandlin in redistricting process.
Texas-2 Ted Poe Nick Lampson Tough-talking former State District Judge Poe took perhaps biggest advantage from redistricting in any competitive Texas district.
Texas-10 Mike McCaul Lorenzo Sadun Ex-Asst. U.S. Atty. McCaul is running in perhaps the safest new GOP district in the state.
Texas-11 Mike Conaway Wayne Raasch CPA Conaway is a sure thing in this Midland-based district.
Texas-17 Arlene Wohlgemuth Chet Edwards Although Edwards has survived relocating to run on new turf before, this district is home to the Bush ranch and State Rep. Wohlgemuth will be strong.
Texas-19 Randy Neugebauer Charlie Stenholm One-termer Neugebauer has strong lead in most polls over 26-year Rep. Stenholm.
Texas-24 Kenny Marchant Gary Page 18-year State Rep. Kenny Marchant's nomination in the primary was tantamount to election
Texas-32 Pete Sessions Martin Frost Sessions is believed to leading former DCCC head Frost in what is likely to become most expensive House race in history.
Democratic Seats Leaning Republican
DISTRICT REPUBLICAN DEMOCRAT ANALYSIS
Kansas-3 Kris Kobach Dennis Moore A united GOP and enthusiastic organization should put law Prof. Kobach, a former aide to John Ashcroft, over three-termer Moore, who has barely won his last two races.
Kentucky-4 Geoff Davis Nick Clooney Former American Movie Channel host Clooney probably has 100% name ID., GOP history favors 2002 near-winner Davis. Pennsylvania-13 Dr. Melissa Brown State Sen. Allyson Schwartz With Democratic Rep. Joe Hoeffel running for the Senate, the 2002 GOP nominee, moderate Brown should edge out far-left Demo Schwartz.
GOP Seats Likely To Go Democratic
DISTRICT REPUBLICAN DEMOCRAT ANALYSIS New York-27 Erie County Comptroller Nancy Naples State Assemblyman Dennis Higgins Although 12-year Rep. Jack Quinn was able to keep Buffalo-area district in GOP hands, his retirement is likely to restore its former tendencies with organization Democrat Higgins.
Georgia-12 Max Burns Athens-Clarke County Commissioner John Barrow Burns won upset in district that is 40% black when Democrats put up tainted opponent in 2002. Barrow is scandal-free and thus, the front-runner.
GOP Seats Leaning Democratic
DISTRICT REPUBLICAN DEMOCRAT ANALYSIS New Mexico-1 Heather Wilson State Senate President Richard Romero Wilson won her biggest-ever (55%) margin over Romero in 2002, but now he's back with better campaign and more money.
Washington State-8 King County Sheriff Dave Reichert Dave Ross With Republican Rep. Jennifer Dunn retiring, conservatives are still suspicious of primary winner Reichert. Popular radio commentator Ross has widespread following.
John Gizzi is Political Editor of HUMAN EVENTS.
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Now we have learned that KY Republican Sen. Jim Bunning is suddenly vulnerable to the Democrat candidate. Months ago Bunning shot off the ill-regarded remark that his opponent, who has an Arabic name, looked like one of the two sons of Saddam Hussein who were killed last year in Iraq. Bunning is said to have a bad case of foot-in-mouth disease, like Clayton W. Williams, Jr., Republican for governor of TX, 1990.
I'd expect five seats to be the low end of the range.
If Bush maintains his lead, it should be much larger.
Great news. A bigger concern, how does the Senate look now?
Not necessarily, House seats are now mostly uncontested. The party that will hold a seat is now usually determined at the time the lines are drawn. Really, the politicians are now picking their own voters, instead of voters choosing the politicians. It has become a ratification process of well-known names, more than an election. Voters seem content with their own lack of input into the process. Some people just don't like to make their own political decisions: it frightens them.
Senate should be R + 2, I think.
A much, much bigger concern. A larger majority in the House doesn't do too much for you, but getting closer to 60 in the Senate would be a big advantage.
Best case scenario for GOP-- lose IL, hold AK, CO, OK, gain NC, FL, SC, GA, SD, LA for a gain of 5, going from 51 to 56, still short of the Democrat filibuster margin
Worst case for GOP -- lose IL, AK, CO, OK, gain only GA. Drop from 51 to 48 seats, return Daschle to majority leadership in name
It's anyone's guess -- between 48 and 56 seats then.
What we really need is seven or eight senate seats!
That would be a gain of six if the GOP took LA, FL, GA, SC, NC, and SD. Or 57 seats, absolute best hope
There is a good conservative candidate for the Senate in AR, Jim Holt, but he has not "clicked" with that states' liberal-leaning voters.
TradeSports.com currently has the 'Icans favored in 17 Senate races and tied in one. Two more are are only slightly in favor of the 'Rats (Dasshole is one of these two; AK is the other).
SD was "pie-in-the-sky" from the start. There is no way that those stubborn Dakotans are going to replace the Senate minority leader with a former congressman who lost two years ago. They want the federal gravy for SD from Daschle and the national security from GW Bush. Who says, SD does not want its cake and eat it too? Up to 25 percent of Bush supporters in SD will vote for Daschle.
Murkowski's problem is that she has alienated conservatives in AK. Is there a third independent or conservative candidate there for the Senate? Plus she has the problem of nepotism from her father. AK people do not understand that Knowles will vote to the left of Murkowski in the Senate.
Jon Corzine thinks he will take IL, OK, AK, and CO and hold on to NC, SC, FL, LA, lose only GA. That would give the Democrats 52, with Jeffords their 53rd vote. And he hopes for an upset in KY for a 54th Democrat Senate vote.
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