Posted on 10/22/2004 8:35:42 PM PDT by Hermann the Cherusker
Andrea Mitchell on the replay of MSNBC's Hardball just now - "Rendell says he hopes that Democrats can come out of Philadelphia with a 335 to 350,000 margin."
There are 40,000 more Democrats registered this time, and 20,000 fewer Republicans. A 50% turnout should mean a 30,000 vote higher margin for Kerry than Gore.
Yet, their highest anticipation and instructions from Democrat numero uno in PA is not to even top their 2000 margin despite an anticipation of higher turnout.
Philadelphia has lost population from 2004 to 2000.
20-25% of white Philadelphia Democrats in South Philly and Northeast Philly voted for Bush in 2000. He will do even better this year if Democrats are expecting their margin to shrink with such advantages.
Bush areas like Lancaster, York, Altoona, and Butler have gained significant population.
I smell nothing but trouble for Kerry in Pennsylvania now. No wonder Clintoon is coming to Philadelphia on Monday.
Ping
I don't get it. What is Rendell admitting?
Or did I mis-read?
I wonder if any conservatives in PA are still angry with Bush supporting Specter in the PA Senate race?
Philly is only part of the problem. The significant problem for Bush are Bucks, Mongtomery, Delaware counties. Republicans are losing ground in these vote rich areas.
Maybe Rendell and OBL operate using the same playbook,,,they get on the TV and send secret coded "messages" to their minions and operatives about what to do next.....
Hmmm...?
Hey, he's a DEM, it's NOT that far-fetched!
My aunt and uncle, now both deceased, were well-connected in Republican circles in Montgomery county forty years ago - maybe it's good they're not still around to see how badly the 'pubs have deteriorated there of late......
Rendell is predicting 335-350, when he has a voter registration advantage that should give him another 30, and when Dems are predicting a higher overall turnout in a city that should heavily favor Kerry.
This isn't about the whole state, but Philly, which is where Democrats generate their victories in the vote tally.
Oh, and that'll certainly help... :D
Altoona has gained population?
I wonder if there are any of us who aren't. Log into the PA message board sometime for an eye full. But conservatives aren't the problem. Country club "Republicans" in the Philly suburbs are.
What exactly is he admitting?
Who the hell, is Rendell?
the RATS are VERY worried about black turnout..they should be
Blair County has I believe.
If the Dems are treading water, while the Republicans are making gains, the margin narrows.
Population, 2003 estimate 127,175
Population, percent change, April 1, 2000 to July 1, 2003 -1.5%
Population, 2000 129,144
Altoona is in the boonies. Of course it is losing population.
Thanks for filling me in on who Rendell is. I'm in Florida.
Hey, remember that slang/slogan....."Are we having fun, yet?"
Maybe I'm getting confused with Centre County. I know I've seen new houses going up in big numbers somewhere out there.
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