Posted on 10/21/2004 1:29:10 PM PDT by avg_freeper
A widely watched barometer of future economic activity edged lower in September for the fourth month in a row, suggesting a slowing in economic growth, a private research group reported Thursday.
The Conference Board said that its Index of Leading Economic Indicators fell 0.1 percent last month, following declines of 0.3 percent in August and 0.3 percent in July.
The group said that while the weakness over the last several months in the economy has become more widespread, the declines in the leading indicator index are not yet large enough nor have they lasted long enough to suggest that the current economic expansion is ending.
The index is closely followed because it is designed to forecast the economy's health over the coming three to six months.
Conference Board economist Ken Goldstein called the September decline a "clear signal that the economy is losing momentum heading into 2005."
Goldstein said that after growing at an annual pace of nearly 4 percent in the third quarter, the economy is likely to expand at a slower pace in the fourth quarter of this year and the first quarter of next year. He said the hurricanes in September and rising energy prices may have held back some sectors in the economy such as home building.
The decline in the index was slightly less than the decline of 0.2 percent that some analysts were expecting. The 10-year Treasury bond, which tends to rise on indications that the economy is cooling, edged up 1/16 point to yield 3.98 percent, down from 3.99 percent late Wednesday. Stock market indicators were mixed.
Josh Feinman, chief economist at Deutsche Asset Management, called the decline in the leading indicators index consistent with other recent signs of slight deceleration on the economy, but he cautioned that signals remained mixed, making predictions difficult.
However, he noted a separate report from the Labor Department on Thursday showed a slight decline in the total number of people receiving unemployment benefits, which he called an indication that the labor market has been "plodding toward improvement."
The Labor Department also reported that the number of new people signing up for jobless benefits fell sharply last week, by a seasonally adjusted 25,000 to 329,000, marking the lowest level since early September and coming in slightly ahead of economists' expectations. Claims had risen by 16,000 in the previous week.
Thursday's report also showed that the number of people continuing to collect unemployment benefits fell by 8,000 to nearly 2.8 million for the week ending Oct. 9, the most recent period for which that information is available. That's an improvement from a year ago, when this figure stood at 3.5 million.
Despite the decline in the forward-looking indicator of economic activity, the Conference Board reported that its index of current economic conditions increased again in September, and that the signals for current growth are widespread in the economy.
All four parts of the current growth indicator increased last month, the group reported, including personal income, non-farm payrolls, manufacturing and trade sales and industrial production. The growth of 0.2 percent in that indicator followed growth of 0.1 percent in August.
Be aware that this is going to be on the front page of every major newspaper, the lead in report for TV national news, and at the top of peoples home page web news feeds. MSM is going to hit us over the head with this repeatedly for the next week and a half
Regardless of how we think the economy is doing or our opinion of the relevancy of this private research group this is what Americans will be told. An October surprise by stealth maybe.
It's too late for the economy to go south and affect the election, barring a stock market collapse.
But if you notice the slide was less last month than the month before (0.1% vs. 0.3%).
Once W wins, oil prices will slide. That'll help.
Over a one-tenth of one percent decline?
You're nuts.
No, the MSM (and its audience) are nuts. It's not the magnitude but the direction. Perception is everything.
The economy expanded 4% in the third quarter. Then it went down .01%. Does this mean that if it went up only 3.9%, that's bad?
Time for more tax cuts.
The direction is positive. The loss was three tenths of one percent in August.
Things are really falling apart aren't they? Man, these slimeballs will do anything to paint a bad picture.
Of course I'm not saying it's rational. Truth and rational thought has little to do with "sound-bite" driven news reporting.
I'm sure that once the Kerry machine is done attacking the current administration's family members they're going to grab on to this and not let go.
Sadly, that's true.
Hope Rove has a fast kick-butt response for this.
That means that the trend is good.
That should be the response to this non-news. Inventories are decreasing and orders should be picking up to a positive figure for October or November.
Cycles, cycles, cycles!
Yes, I understand your point. The growth is still positive. But the whole point of the article is that the RATE of growth has declined -- which is what will be spun by MSM as negative. - can't win with them.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.