Posted on 10/19/2004 9:00:13 AM PDT by Mike Fieschko
Two weeks before Election Day, the odds that President Bush will pull an upset and grab New Jersey's 15 electoral votes are growing slimmer, a Star-Ledger/Eagleton-Rutgers poll shows.Massachusetts Sen. John Kerry leads Bush by 10 points, 48 percent to 38 percent, among registered voters and by 13 percentage points, 51-38, among likely voters, according to the survey of 805 registered voters conducted by telephone Oct. 14 to 17.
[snip]
Among New Jersey voters, Bush polls best with those who feel terrorism is the most important issue in the race, Murray said, "but the terrorism issue is saturated, and I don't think he can pick up any more voters than he already has."
[snip]
Now, about half of the state residents who plan on voting for Kerry say the senator deserves to be elected on his own merits.
Bush supporters are still far more enthusiastic about their candidate -- 83 percent of them are more pro-Bush than anti-Kerry --
[snip]
During a campaign stop in South Jersey yesterday, the president emphasized the war on terror and domestic security issues. The message is sure to resonate with his supporters in the state, the poll indicates: 38 percent of likely Bush voters in New Jersey said terrorism and security was their most important issue, while another 17 percent said the war in Iraq was most important.
[snip]
Kerry appears to be increasing his lead among various portions of the New Jersey electorate. He is 15 points ahead in North Jersey, 10 points ahead in the south, and four points in front in the middle of the state.
The candidates are nearly dead-even among whites, but Kerry holds a 50-point advantage among blacks and Hispanics. The margin is 17 points among those under 30 and 11 points among senior citizens.
(Excerpt) Read more at nj.com ...
NRO concluded that this Star Ledger poll was probably an outlier.
I highly doubt his lead is that great in New Jersey. If it were, the President would not have made a stop to campaign there.
If Bush was down by 10-15 why was he there yesterday? I totally disagree with this analysis. IMO
Didn't Algore have an 80 point advantage?
It's much closer than that.
total lie
Bush is wasting his time in NJ. He needs to be in FL 24/7.
Quinnipac had them 4 points apart.
I sure hope after the election that somebody figures out what was with all the polls being up and down, and the huge differences in polls of supposedly the same electorate.
I think this may be the year that the polls become obsolete.
My guess is that it includes Somerset and Hunterdon, but may not include Union. I don't know where you'd put Union.
What is with Kerry polling higher in Likely voters versus registered? Hasn't the conventional wisdom always been that LV usually vote Republican? I'm seeing this phenomonon in almost every poll that breaks the two down.
It's like deja-vu...anyone else remeber Bush campaigning in California in 2000?
Quinnipiac just did a poll and Kerry is only up by 4. This poll might be way off! 49 Kerry 45 Bush!
Well, if this is accurate, I'd say it's time for Bush to pull the plug on this one and write it off. If Kerry's lead in NJ is blowing open like this, there's no sense wasting any more time on it. Focus on keeping FL and OH, and maybe nipping Kerry at the post in IA and WI.
The Star Ledger has been shilling for Kerry since he got the nomination. They will undoubtedly endorse him. Quinnapiac is calling it a 4 point race.
Amen. If not Florida, at least real swing states that he has a better chance of winning. He wasted a lot of time and money in California 4 years ago. I wish I could believe that he has a chance in NJ, but I just don't.
Of course, he may be trying to pump up his vote total in NY/NJ, in an attempt to not be a two term president that never won the popular vote. As long as the campaign is correct in thinking he has other swing states locked up, then go for it. But don't be wrong.
REal Clear Politics has this: BEFORE Bush's visit yesterday!
New Jersey ( 15 Electoral Votes)
>>Results from 2000 Election: Bush 40.3, Gore 56.2, Nader 3 (Gore +15.9)
Poll | Date Sample MoE Bush Kerry Nader Spread
RCP Average | 10/8-10/17 - - 43.0 48.7 1.5 Kerry +5.7
Quinnipiac | 10/14-10/17 786 LV 3.5 45 49 1 Kerry +4
Star-Ledger | 10/14-10/17 663 LV n/a 38 51 - Kerry +13
FDU Public Mind | 10/8-10/14 508 LV 4.5 46 46 2 TIE
I don't buy this poll.
The President's internal polling must have shown a closer contest for him to have spent so much time there.
Amen! Forget Jersey and concentrate on Florida and Ohio. He wins these and he is reelected!
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