Posted on 10/17/2004 2:42:10 PM PDT by raccoonradio
If Bush had not nipped Gore in the Granite State by 7,211 votes, the words "hanging chad" might never have been uttered. But Bush took it, Gore didn't, and just like that, this small state, once a Republican gimme, is now something else entirely: a battleground.
The post-mortem on the 2000 presidential election is ongoing; in fact, it can be argued that the most extensive element of that post-mortem is the 2004 presidential election. There are the eternal arguments about hanging chads and voter fraud in Florida and the endless, bitter recriminations over why Bill Clinton was left off the bus in vital states like Arkansas and Tennessee. Withal, the fact remains that, had George Bush not edged Al Gore in New Hampshire by a thin 7,211 votes (out of more than a half-million votes cast), none of the rest of it would have mattered. New Hampshire's paltry four electoral votes would have swung the election to the Democrats and rendered irrelevant all the other states entangled in that ungodly snarl, including Florida, Arkansas, and the bedraggled state of political journalism. The question that was fought out in Miami would have been settled in Manchester.
And that's where it may well be settled this year. "The country is very much divided, and it hasn't changed much in the last four years," says Jayne Millerick, the chairwoman of the New Hampshire Republican State Committee. "We're looking at a situation that could be as close as it was last time."
"They lean, in presidential races, one way or the other," explains (Deborah) "Arnie" Arnesen, a former gubernatorial candidate and now a popular radio talk-show host. "Because taxes are off the table, as long as you sound like a Democrat and fiscally act like a Republican, you're simply smashing to us."
(Excerpt) Read more at boston.com ...
But I thought that the black vote, the hispanic vote, the womans vote, the Catholic vote, the veterans vote , the youth vote, the Vietnamese vote, the Arab vote, the Jewish vote, the single woman vote, etc. was the key to this election.
You have to read beyond the first page of the article to discover the author's real purpose. It's a bait-and-switch sort of article. You think you're going to be reading about changes in voter demographics, and how voters think about the candidates.
However, the article is really a critique of the "nasty" NH Republican Party and Governor Benson. Not until you get to the last paragraph at the bottom of page 2 do you get to the author's real thesis:
"If the Republican governor is in trouble, which he is, it has to be seen in the light of its effect at the very top of the ballot. If there's a bizarre court case involving dirty tricks at a get-out-the-vote phone bank, which there is, that becomes a national story."
That's what the remaining 6 pages are all about.
I'm sure the Boston Globe would love to get GW or Dick up to NH to waste their time up there. This is pure disinformation, or idiocy, which given the paper it came out of, is entirely possible.
GW looks likely to take 291 EVs, WITHOUT NH. If Bush loses Florida's 27 EVs, he loses the election, and that's where he should be campaigning hardest. GW can even lose OH's 20 EVs and win, WITHOUT NH. New Hampshire is nowhere insofar as this election is concerned.
Sheesh. I believe we've hashed out the various scenarios for four years now. If....Gore had won his home state. If...the media hadn't called Florida an hour early. If...New Mexico. If...if...if. Bottom line is that each state that went to Bush last time is just as crucial this time, regardless of the margin.
This is of course a silly argument. Had Bush lost N.H. but won the cloest of all states, N.M. he would have gotten one extra electoral vote. There were lots of close states in 2000. Oregon, Florida, New Mexico, Iowa and Wisconsin were all closer in both total votes and and percentage vote than N.H. And Bush lost four of the five.
If Algore had taken his home state of Tennessee, he would have been elected. He's a loser.
It was the good people of Tennessee and Arkansas, who, by NOT voting for Gore, elected W as ou president..
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.