[Theodore R.]

I think Gizzi is a little optimistic but in line with possibile election outcomes on Nov. 2. I am skeptical about his belief that David Vitter will win in LA though it is nearly certain that Vitter will poll more than 40 percent in the Nov. 2 senatorial "primary" in LA. I still think Breaux-Landrieu-Blanco will put Chris John over the top in the Dec. 4 "general election."

[Theodore R.]

I was not even aware that Bayh, Mikulski, Leahy, and some of the others were even on the ballot this year. The GOP gave many a free pass, but the Democrats contest most offices that they can.

[zbigreddogz]

We're gonna pick up 4 then, because we arn't going to lose Colorado.

[TJC]

I would switch LA and CO. I think Coors will win but Vitter will not get 50%+ and will not win the special election. Too bad.

[Timeout]

I think there's still a chance for Coors to pull it out. Would require good GOP turnout, but I wouldn't be surprised if he wins.

[Redmen4ever]

The Democrat in this race is, of course, trying to take advantage of the Republican on the gay issue. They are shameless. The Democrat's strategy may be working with Gizzi; but, voters warm up to quasi-libertarian Republicans. The overwhelmingly majority of Americans actually think it is possible to treat all people with dignity AND uphold the family. Remember, Coors did unexpectedly well in the Republican primary, even compared to the last minute polls. He's already even with the Democrat in the polls, and can carry this state if we stand together. Don't let the Democrats split us up by playing the gay card

[RightWhale]

In Alaska both parties are accusing the other of failure in ANWR. Gov Murkowski is taking govern type action to get the state into ownership of the TransAlaska Natural Gas Pipeline, which may encourage building it, and to allow slant drilling under ANWR. This may make the points moot although gov't ownership of the projects are questionable on ideological grounds. Sen Murkowski and Tony Knowles are dead even, not a trend for the Rs.

[ride the whirlwind]

It would be nice if GWB had a nice big fat lead right now so that he could more vigouously offer his coat tails to the struggling senatorial candidates........when he campaigned for them in 2002, my gosh, it was a beautiful sight!

[Snardius]

Washington Rep. George Nethercutt Patty Murray Murray favored despite of hard-hitting ads featuring her praising Osama Bin Laden.

My prediction is Nethercutt (who debates Murray tonight for the first time) wins a squeaker 50.5% to 49.5% Murray sues...election fraud by WA Dems is uncovered and we have the first WA senator from east of the Cascade Mtns in 84 years.

[curmudgeonII]

Who is John Gizzi?
What is his track record on predictions?

[SoDak]

South Dakota John Thune Tom Daschle Former Rep. Thune has given Daschle horserace, but lacks Daschle's endgame resources.

Wrong

[Ciexyz]

Keeping fingers crossed.

[So Cal Rocket]

Likely Republican Pick-Ups

STATE	REPUBLICAN	DEMOCRAT	ANALYSIS
Florida	Mel Martinez	Betty Castor	Former HUD Secretary leads in recent polls for seat of retiring Democrat Bob Graham
Georgia	Rep. Johnny Isakson	Rep. Denise Majette	Isakson is slam-dunk over Majette to succeed retiring Sen. Zell Miller (D).
Louisiana*	Rep. David Vitter	Chris John, John Kennedy, others*	Vitter could win 50% and avoid run-off to replace retiring Sen. John Breaux (D).
North Carolina	Rep. Richard Burr	Erskine Bowles	Burr has momentum over former Clinton chief of staff to replace John Edwards.
South Carolina	Rep. Jim DeMint	Inez Tannenbaum	DeMint holds constant lead to succeed retiring Sen. Ernest Hollings (D).

Leaning Republican Holds

STATE	REPUBLICAN	DEMOCRAT	ANALYSIS
Alaska	Sen. Lisa Murkowski	Tony Knowles	Murkowski is over bad press for being appointed by her father, the governor.
Oklahoma	Tom Coburn	Rep. Brad Carson	Big Bush margin in Oklahoma should help Coburn edge Carson.

Certain Republican Holds

STATE	REPUBLICAN	DEMOCRAT	ANALYSIS
Alabama	Richard Shelby	Wayne Sowell	Shelby has $11 million in campaign kitty and is the most popular politician in Alabama
Arizona	John McCain	Stu Starky	McCain is an institution in Arizona after 22 years in Congress.
Idaho	Mike Crapo	Scott McClure	Former Republican McClure is write-in candidate.
Iowa	Charles Grassley	Art Small	Since he entered state legislature in 1958, Grassley has never lost an election.
Kansas	Sam Brownback	Lee Jones	After two tough campaigns, Brownback will slam-dunk unknown Jones.
Kentucky	Jim Bunning	State Sen. Daniel Mongiardo	Bunning should roll to landslide over physician Mongiardo
Missouri	Kit Bond	State Treasurer Nancy Farmer	Bond coasting to third Senate term from Show-Me state.
New Hampshire	Judd Gregg	Doris "Granny D" Haddock	Gregg has no trouble in third-term bid against 90-something "Granny D".
Ohio	George Voinovich	State Sen. Eric Fingerhut	Voinovich leads 58% to 32% in Cleveland Plain Dealer poll.
Pennsylvania	Arlen Specter	Rep. Joseph Hoeffel	After near-defeat in primary, Specter now strong favorite for fifth term.
Utah	Robert Bennett	Paul Van Dam	Bennett will win third term in seat his father held for four terms.

Likely Democratic Pick-Ups

STATE	REPUBLICAN	DEMOCRAT	ANALYSIS
Colorado	Pete Coors	State Atty. Gen. Kenneth Salazar	Coors has been hurt by contrast between his conservative values and corporate practices.
Illinois	Alan Keyes	State Sen. Barack Obama	Convention keynoter Obama is already campaigning for candidates in other states

Leaning Democratic Holds

STATE	REPUBLICAN	DEMOCRAT	ANALYSIS
South Dakota	John Thune	Tom Daschle	Former Rep. Thune has given Daschle horserace, but lacks Daschle's endgame resources.
Washington	Rep. George Nethercutt	Patty Murray	Murray favored despite of hard-hitting ads featuring her praising Osama Bin Laden.

Certain Democratic Holds

STATE	REPUBLICAN	DEMOCRAT	ANALYSIS
Arkansas	State Sen. Jim Holt	Blanche Lincoln	Lincoln holds massive lead in most polls over one-term State Sen. Holt.
California	Bill Jones	Barbara Boxer	Ex-Secretary of State Jones could not raise money against two-termer Boxer.
Connecticut	Jack Orchulli	Christopher Dodd	Dodd is shoo-in over clothier Orchullli.
Hawaii	Kam Cavasso	Daniel Inouye	42-year incumbent Inouye has no trouble with GOP newcomer Cavasso.
Indiana	Marvin Scott	Evan Bayh	Bayh waltzing to second term over educator Scott.
Maryland	State Sen. E.J. Pipkin	Barbara Mikulski	Mikulski has 2-to-1 lead in most polls.
Nevada	Richard Ziser	Harry Reid	Reid so secure he has gotten Republicans to donate to him over businessman Ziser.
New York	Howard Mills	Charles Schumer	Schumer will beat Mills and Conservative nominee Marilyn O'Grady.
North Dakota	Mike Liffrig	Byron Dorgan	Dorgan looks like landslide winner against newcomer Liffrig.
Oregon	Al King	Ron Wyden	Wyden running far ahead of underfinanced ex-State GOP Vice Chairman King.
Vermont	Jack McMullen	Patrick Leahy	Leahy holds big lead for fifth term over businessman McMullen.
Wisconsin	Tim Michels	Russell Feingold	Former U.S. Army Ranger Michels waging a spirited race but Feingold will survive.

*Under Louisiana law, candidates, regardless of party, compete on the same ballot and, if no one has a majority on November 2nd, the top two vote-getters meet in a December run-off.

[bigeasy_70118]

There is a modest chance that Bush will carry Vitter over the 50% mark on Nov 2, thereby eliminating any need for our nonsensical runoff.

That being said, if there is a runoff, the pubbies can kiss any hope of taking the seat goodbye.

[isom35]

well, if john gizzy says so, it must be true. btw, who the heck is john gizzy?

[Pilsner]

Some years all the close races seem to go one way. '74, 80, '86, '94. Lets hope they all go the right way this year.