Posted on 10/12/2004 1:28:15 PM PDT by delapaz
New Voter Registration: Not Enough for Kerry
There have been a lot of stories pushing the idea that a whole bunch of new voters are being registered in Ohio. What is underreported is that there are huge increases in Republican counties as well. Especially read the Enquirer article below.
Sources: Columbus Dispatch, Cincinnati Enquirer, Cleveland PD
What I've done is scour through these newspaper articles trying to figure out how many new registrations there are and in what counties. I then extrapolate from 2000 election results how many of these registrations are new Bush voters and new Kerry votes. what I have so far is 100,000 new votes for Kerry, if the turnout and county breakdown's are as follows. In this analysis I am being extremely generous to Democrats. Giving 95% of Cuyahoga's new registrations to Kerry and assuming an 80% turnout model for these new votes, which is extremely high historically.
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||||||
| vote % | Turnout | new votes | ||||
| County | new reg | % Bush | %Dem | Bush | Kerry | |
| NW | ||||||
| Lucas | 25000 | 50% | 50% | 80% | 10000 | 10000 |
| 0 | 0 | |||||
| Central | 0 | 0 | ||||
| Delaware | 14000 | 70% | 30% | 80% | 7840 | 3360 |
| Franklin | 200000 | 40% | 60% | 80% | 64000 | 96000 |
| SW | 0 | 0 | ||||
| Hamilton | 64000 | 54% | 42% | 80% | 27648 | 21504 |
| Warren | 17000 | 70% | 28% | 80% | 9520 | 3808 |
| Butler | 25000 | 63% | 34% | 80% | 12600 | 6800 |
| Clermont | 12000 | 68% | 30% | 80% | 6528 | 2880 |
| NE | 0 | 0 | ||||
| Cuyahoga | 133000 | 5% | 95% | 80% | 5320 | 101080 |
| Geauga | 15000 | 60% | 36% | 80% | 7200 | 4320 |
| Lake | 15000 | 50% | 50% | 80% | 6000 | 6000 |
| Total new | 146656 | 245752 | ||||
| Net for Bush | -99096 | |||||
| < ![if supportMisalignedColumns]> | ||||||
Conclusion: increased voter registration in Republican counties are offsetting Cuyahoga and Franklin counties. Watch for updates. Gore lost by 166,000 votes in 2000. It could be close but even giving Kerry benefit of the doubt on these new registrations Ohio still looks very tough for him to win. I feel good.
I am a newly registered Democrat in Ohio and I am voting for Bush, so part affiliation is not always a good indicator.
So why did you register as Democrat?
I heard Michael Medved state the other day that in at least 5 "battleground" states (Ohio, Oregon, can't remember the others)Republicans are registering more than the democrats. I do believe that the Republicans will be the ones more likely to vote. The dumbocrats will either forget it is election day, or be to drunk or stoned to go to the polls.
I have always been a Democrat. More in the John Kennedy, Scoop Jackson, Sam Nunn tradition.
I'm concerned about Ohio. Florida is a lock, so are most of the rest of the 2000 Bush states, except New Hampshire which we can win without, especially with Wisconsin apparently solid for the President.
But the Democrats of those days no longer exist-except for Zell Miller.
can anyone point me to raw county data for Ohio for the 2000 election. I'm especially interested in registration vs actual turnout by county.
Thanks very much for your useful analysis. Please keep us posted!
Who are today's equivalents to Kennedy, Jackson, and Nunn?
Well, I hope there's more of them like you (voting for Bush, that is).
Your party has left you. Much like Reagan said, "I haven't left the Democrat party, the Democrat party has left me."
I don't think there really could be a 20:1 ratio of new Kerry voters to Bush voters in that one county.
Is this what you're looking for:
http://www.sos.state.oh.us/sos/results/index.html
> I do believe that the Republicans will be the
> ones more likely to vote.
If they really are registered. Republican-staffed regs
drives can probably be trusted, but if anyone "registered"
lately via a third party, as anything other than a Dem,
they need to assume their paperwork will be lost, altered
or used to create fake voters.
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1242846/posts
_________________________
Subject: Will you be turned away on November 2nd?
This email is unfortunately not a hoax or urban legend.
Share it with any people whose votes you care about.
This is particularly important in "battleground" states.
1. Register in person
Unless you registered to vote in person at an official
location, you may not be registered, or you may have a
defective registration. You need to verify your voter
registration status in person with your local elections
office.
2. Verify it
There is some chance that even if you were properly
registered, and even voted in the primaries, someone
has since tampered with (filed a change on) your
registration, either to enable someone else to vote
as you, or just to deny your vote. Verify your
registration. Do this as late as possible (still
with time to fix it)
3. Look for abuse
If you gave personal information to a door-to-door,
telephone or web "get-out-the-vote" operation, there
may be fictional voters signed up as members of your
family or as unrelated people living at your address.
When you verify, ask who else is registered at your
address, or with your same name.
4. Vote as early as possible
If your locale allows it, you need to consider voting
absentee, and as early as possible, to forestall the
ability of someone else to impersonate you and steal
your vote.
In Kansas, you can register up to 15 days before the
election, but vote as early as 20 days before. So
register NOW, and then you can complete steps 2/3/4
on October 13.
Although the legacy media is not eager to report it, the
2004 election promises to include significant levels of
vote fraud. Ineligible voters, multiple voters, voter
impersonation (vote theft) and registration interference
have all been reported.
3rd-party registration drives cannot be trusted with
something as important as your vote.
Innocent error is possible with any group, but the more
radical organizations are actually invalidating or simply
not filing the registrations of voters not sympathetic
to their candidate. They are also creating additional
fictional registrations based on real addresses, names
and other personal info.
You need to take steps to ensure that your vote counts,
and that information about you is not being used to
enable fraudulent votes.
Zell Miller. Most of the South and West... and me
Also, in 2000, Bush led Gore by 8 points going into the DUI weekend, winning by only 3.8%.
thats it, thanks man your awesome!
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