Posted on 10/11/2004 11:29:56 AM PDT by ambrose
Survey USA: Debate is a Draw
By First Coast News Staff
JACKSONVILLE, FL -- President Bush and Democratic presidential hopeful John Kerry sparred to a draw Friday night according to an exclusive Survey USA poll of 605 viewers in the Jacksonville area who watched the debate.
42% of those polled say Bush clearly won, and 42% say Kerry clearly won. 15% of those polled said there was no clear winner.
75% said the debate will not change how they will vote in November. 20% say the debate did change their vote.
Of the 124 people who are changing their vote, 47% plan to vote for President Bush, and 52% plan to vote for John Kerry.
Answer: None.
If this is even remotely accurate, Bush takes FL easily. Read carefully, that means Kerry picks up 5% of 20% or a net change in the overall poll of 1% (0.05 * 0.20). Bush is ahead anywhere from 4-8% in FL, and a 1% change for Kerry does not even remotely come close.
good stat work.
20% of the people didn't change their vote - that's just how many respondents lied in response to that question.
I don't know a lot about the Jacksonville area but if I'm correct, there is a sizable Dem vote there - mostly blacks and Hispanics. I have heard the suburbs are more Republican than the city.
Maybe Survey USA oversampled the inner city? Just a thought...
Anyone have any thoughts on this?
Who the hell could still be undecided in this election. I apologize but any undecided voters right now don't deserve to vote.
Oh, yes I agree. The 20% seems very high.
A five-point preference advantage is nothing with a sample of 124 people. Well within the margin of error for a sample size that small.
Here's an example of an undecided voter:
West Point graduate stationed in Iraq.
He's black.
His decision - based on importance. Is it:
-- my country first?
-- my party (DNC) first?
-- my race first?
" an exclusive Survey USA poll of 605 viewers in the Jacksonville area who watched the debate".
This appears to be a snap poll taken Friday night of viewers (notice not registered or likely voters) who watched the debate. Secondly, it was of viewers in the Jacksonville area ONLY.
Snap polls are useless, and this one is not even a "good" snap poll.
LLS
when the mainstream media claims that Kerry won the first debate, that means it was a draw (especially with pro-Kerry Lehrer running things).
when the mainstream media claims that the VP debate and the second debate were draws, it means that Cheney and Bush cleaned their clocks.
Read that as "Bush won."
Another example of the MSM trying to influence people!!!! When will they learn that their influence is gone? WHo needs them? Good stat work to show the MSM that their numbers just don't matter. Bush is going to win FL, OH and PA is still in play.
"The 20% who would change their votes this late in the game are total morons!"
Thank gord Karl Rove is running the campaign and not you. Lets be honest up until now most voters will have only heard and seen the political propaganda from both sides (yes both sides)- nothing will focus the mind of a voter better than seeing them in the flesh- which is why these debates are so crucial. You can hardly blame voters for being undecided. Calling 20% of the electorate "morons" will hardly help our case.
Yup.
The truth is the truth. Only a political moron is undecided at this point and if truth be known I would prefer they stay home and watch the Survivors or whatnot.
I don't know a lot about the Jacksonville area but if I'm correct, there is a sizable Dem vote there - mostly blacks and Hispanics. I have heard the suburbs are more Republican than the city.
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