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To: TigerLikesRooster
I have to question some of your thinking there. The vast majority of protesters in TS were students. Students are the least likely to give a rats ass about recessions. Maybe you heard of theat little Anti-USSR stuff going on in Easern Europe at the time?

Also, China has historically been in it for the long haul. As others have pointed out, if they can get the expertise and the facilities for free(heck, even making money along the way) and suffer a slowdown for a couple years as the economies of the world dive, they would be happy. Because they have a HUGE built in market and then they would swoop in to capture a big % of the world market during the next upswing.

12 posted on 10/01/2004 6:57:41 PM PDT by SengirV
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To: SengirV
Re #12

Students were indeed drawing from popular resentment. There were many laid-off workers at the time, they joined the protest. One guy was even interviewed by ABC News at the time, bitterly complaining of Chinese government. Students were just most visible articulate symbols. This one was originally triggered by the death of Hu Yao-bang, the sacked General Secretary, who was thought to be too liberal by communist establishment.

China indeed tries to plan for the long haul. However, whatever long-range plan they have, the popping of big Chinese bubble could derail their wonderful plans. I think that they do not fully grasp the potential impact of such event. After all, they are still new to market economy and run-away-boom-cycle has been always the last to be understood, usually only after the economy suffering a financial debacle. Even U.S. with its long experience has trouble addressing financial problems in time. Chinese inexperience(ignorance) with the boom cycle may blur their vision. Currently, they believe that the economy will continue to grow unabated. They do have all kinds of grand plans to carry out.

When the down cycle comes, which could be big, I think that Chinese people are psychologically ill-prepared to handle it. Chinese mass are not the push-overs in such a situation. The final years of Ming Dynasty was one example. Massive peasant riots everywhere. Tienanmen Uprising was really puny in comparison, triggered by ordinary recession. Central government could put riots down eventually, but at a great cost. Things won't be the same again.

I outline this kind of scenario, because current Chinese boom is over the top, while many structural problems of the economy(finance) are being overlooked. Both Chinese and foreigners investing in China were buying a huge China myth. This myth is bigger than Japan myth of late 80's. The bigger the myth, the more willing they are to ignore problem, and stay focused on the myth. The size of the myth worries me.

21 posted on 10/01/2004 7:53:24 PM PDT by TigerLikesRooster
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