Posted on 09/27/2004 6:31:18 PM PDT by fight_truth_decay
So where does the electoral college stand right now? Given how the 2000 election turned out, and that there is still a good chance this race will be close, it is a crucial question.
First, based on state polls, it is possible to determine which states are solid for Bush and which for Kerry. For Bush it is Alabama, Alaska, Arizona, Georgia, Idaho, Indiana, Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Mississippi, Missouri, Montana, Nebraska, North Carolina, North Dakota, Oklahoma, South Carolina, South Dakota, Texas, Utah, Virginia, and Wyoming for a total of 191 electoral votes. Kerry has 171 with California, Connecticut, Delaware, D.C., Hawaii, Illinois, Massachusetts, Michigan, New York, Rhode Island, Vermont, and Washington.
The remaining seventeen states are in the analysis below because either (1) one of the opponents either had a lead or was tied in one of the last five polls, or (2) the last five polls have shown an average lead for one of the candidates of 5 points or less. Let's see how they line up:
Arkansas (6 electoral votes): Bush doesn't lead by much, but Kerry has only led in a few polls here, and hasn't led in any since mid-August. Even though this is a not a "Deep South" state, it probably won't vote for a Massachusetts liberal. LEANS BUSH.
Colorado (9): This is one of the biggest surprises of this election season. Although two recent polls have shown Bush up by 12 points and 8 points, it's not yet clear if this is a trend. The three previous polls showed Bush up by only one, and the two before that showed a tie. Rich Lowryhas attributed this to an increased Hispanic presence in Colorado. Whatever the reason, I'm putting this one down as TOSS-UP.
Florida (27): The Sunshine State is probably the toughest to call right now. Bush has led in three of the last five polls, Kerry in the other two. Bush's margins in the polls have ranged from 3 to 8 points, while Kerry has never led by more than one. One more poll showing Bush with a lead, and it will be in the LEAN BUSH category. Until then, TOSS-UP.
Iowa (7): Iowa is also a bit of a surprise. Bush has led in the last eight polls (although never by more than 6 points.) Could the Hawkeye state be poised to go GOP for the first time since 1984? LEANS BUSH.
Maryland (10): The only reason Maryland is in this list is that the latest poll, from SurveyUSA, showed a 48-48% tie. Of the previous four, the smallest lead Kerry had was nine points. LEANS HEAVILY KERRY.
Maine (4): One recent poll showed a tie, another showed Bush with a 1-point lead. Kerry has led in all of the other polls, but those showed his lead shrinking. TOSS-UP.
Minnesota (10): The Land of 10,000 Lakes has drifted Republican more than any other state since 2000. Will it be enough to put Bush over the top? The last three polls showed a tie, Kerry up by 2, and Bush by 2. TOSS-UP.
Nevada (5): Kerry led here in August, but it started to swing toward Bush in September. Bush has led in the last five polls, with one at 9 points. LEANS BUSH.
New Hampshire (4): This one is also very tough to call. Kerry led here most of the summer. Of the three polls conducted in the Granite State in September two have shown Bush with a lead, one with Kerry. TOSS-UP.
New Jersey (15): The last poll showed a tie, the one before that showed Kerry with an 8 point lead, the one before that Bush by 4. As tempting as it is to put this down as TOSS-UP, Kerry has led in too many polls here, and, besides, it's Jersey! LEANS KERRY.
New Mexico (5): The Land of the Rising Sun is also the Land of Big Polling Disparity. Two recent polls showed Bush up by 3 and 4, while three others showed Kerry up by 5, 9, and 5.6. Have to put this down as TOSS-UP.
Ohio (20): This actually violates my rules: Bush has led the last five polls here (last eleven to be exact) and that lead has averaged more than five points. It caught my eye because the last two showed a possible shrinking of Bush's lead. A trend? Maybe. But for now, Ohio LEANS BUSH.
Oregon (7): This is a bit of surprise too. Kerry led here throughout the summer, but he has slipped as of late, with the last two polls showing slight Bush leads. TOSS-UP.
Pennsylvania (21): Bush led in a poll here in mid-September, but the last four show Kerry opening up a small lead. LEANS KERRY.
Tennessee (11): This one should barely be in here, except that Kerry led in one poll back in August. The last four show Bush with a lead ranging from 7 to 16 points. LEANS HEAVILY BUSH.
West Virginia (5): Bush led by wide margins here in late August. It slipped some in September, but has recovered with the last two polls showing Bush leading by 6. LEANS BUSH.
Wisconsin (10): This is also a bit of surprise. Kerry hasn't led here since early September. Aside from one tie, Bush has led in all of the recent polls, with the latest showing a 14-point lead. LEANS BUSH.
If all of the states vote the way they are currently leaning, then Bush will have 255 electoral votes and Kerry 217, with 66 in the TOSS-UP category. Bush is clearly in the driver's seat, and of those states in the TOSS-UP category would only need to pick up Colorado and Oregon to climb over the top. It seems that he doesn't even need Florida.
However, that is no reason for complacency. Kerry would only need Colorado, Oregon, Minnesota and Florida, and he would hit the magic number of 270 exactly. Furthermore, there are far more LEAN BUSH states than there are LEAN KERRY states, meaning that there is more room for Kerry to cut into Bush's electoral vote totals.
And there's still five long weeks.
(Editor's note: This article is slightly changed from this morning as the author made a small error in the mathematical calculation of the electoral vote totals. David Hogberg and we apologize for the error -- which in good faith was done to Sen. Kerry's advantage.)
2004 Electoral Vote Animation
May 24 - Present
All in all very good news. Especially in Kerry has to spend bucks in NJ, MD and other states that should be a lock for him.
My independent count coincides w Realclearpolitics.com at 291 for Bush.
It's obvious David Hogberg hasn't done his homework when it comes to the Centennial State. Colorado will go for Bush-Cheney. No doubt about it. Colorado is not a toss up state and never has been. Since the GOP convention, the President has pulled ahead of Kerry and these increases for Bush in Colorado have mirrored the national polls. At the same time, GOP Senate candidate Pete Coors has pulled ahead of Democrat Ken Salazar in the race to replace Senator Ben Nighthorse Campbell.
I get 295, my guess is our difference is New Hampshire, which I have in the Bush column.
David Hogberg needs to lay off the (Zog)sauce when analyzing polls.
Be Useful in Illonis and Michigan
Tennessee is BUSH country. We know gun grabbers when we see them. We know tax and spend liberals when we hear them.
I don't know what this guy is talking about. Kerry doesn't stand a chance in Arkansas. I think he just stopped advertising there.
Actually as of today no state allocates electors proportionately, but Colorado may for this election if an ammendment passes.
Maine and Nebraska allocate their electors by the winner of each congressional district and the state winner getting the two senatorial electors.
Maine and Nebraska give the overall winning candidate two votes, then the rest according to who wins each congressional district.
Agree with your note about Arkansas. Since when is Arkansas "Not a Deep South state"? That would be news to everyone else in the South. Florida qualifies as "not Deep South" -- but Arkansas?
Agree with your note about Arkansas. Since when is Arkansas "Not a Deep South state"? That would be news to everyone else in the South. Florida qualifies as "not Deep South" -- but Arkansas?
At the Tennessee -- La-Tech football game the stickers on clothes were easily 8-10 to 1 for Bush. Later found out that some UT trademark person forced the Bushies to stop handing out the stickers which had the orange and white checkerboard endzone across the middle.
Easy to feel good about Tennessee being Bush Country.
Don't forget it was Tennessee not Florida who cost Gore the 2000 election. We knew him, you see.
The last poll in Tennessee (reported a week ago) showed Bush up by 13 points. That confirmed a couple of other smaller polls that had leads of ten points or so.
I don't know where that goofy August poll came from, but there's never been a significant chance of TN going for Kerry. Heck, Gore couldn't win here even though he came from Tennessee! The idea that TN would go for a northeastern liberal when we didn't go for Gore is plain silly. Any realistic analysis should put Tennessee firmly in the group of Bush states.
Bush is clearly on the offensive, consistently visiting states Gore won while making a few appearances in "swing" states he won. Kerry on the other hand is spending all his money and all his time, defending states Gore won, and many that Gore won easily.
Well over 300 to W by my book. How about a betting pool?
I tend to agree with you. I just don't see this election being a nailbiter like 2000. Not saying it will be a landslide, but I think Bush will take a number of the Gore states to win handily.
Maine and Nebraska give the overall winning candidate two votes, then the rest according to who wins each congressional district.
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That is what I said and that is not proportional allocations which is what you said in your first post. Proportional allocation is what Colorado would be instituted this election IF the voters of CO pass an ammendment.
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