Posted on 09/09/2004 8:55:25 AM PDT by crushelits
THE TEA-LEAVES OF AD BUYS
Every campaign season, one hears of mysterious and almost-never-leaked "internal polls" by campaigns. Sometimes these etherial, mysterious forces are cited as a cause for optimism... "Yes, forty-nine percent of respondents say they would rather elect a cabbage than our candidate, but our internal polls show this number much lower."
Here's a great example from Sid Blumenthal today:
Both John Kerry's and Bush's internal polls gave Bush only a four-point lead.
(Quick observation: Uh-huh. One is supposed to believe that while Kerry Spot has to pull teeth to get stuff out of the Kerry campaign, in spite of efforts at fairness so Herculean, that numerous readers e-mail in to declare the coverage wimpy and insufficiently tough on the Democratic candidate, Sid Blumenthal, the Voldemort of the Democratic Party, a spin doctor so ruthless he makes James Carville look like a Care Bear, can get access to the Bush campaign’s internal polls? What, did he install a spy camera above Karl Rove’s desk?)
But while polls conducted by a campaign tend to show good news for the candidate whose campaign paid for it, sometimes they show bad things, and they're a trigger of panic. "There is a rumor floating around that an internal poll shows eighty percent of voters cannot tell the difference between the candidate and the cabbage."
One way that the public can get some sense of what the mood is within a campaign, and what, perhaps, those mysterious internal polls say, is to look where a campaign is spending its money.
And how is the Kerry campaign spending its money lately?
Sen. John Kerry and the Democratic Party are limiting television advertising to just 14 states as the fall campaign opens, curbing their ambitions for a broader playing field against President Bush. The shift reduces Missouri, Colorado, Arizona and four Southern states to second-tier status…
The Kerry team sought to put off the day of reckoning by reserving $50 million worth of advertising time in 20 states through Election Day, declaring themselves in charge of a larger-than-usual playing field. But a close look at the advertising plans reveals a more modest set of priorities, centered on 14 states in which the Kerry campaign or the Democratic Party will air ads this month:
* The Kerry campaign has bought time in Florida, Ohio, Iowa, New Mexico, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, West Virginia, New Hampshire, Michigan and Oregon. Those are the campaign's 10 most competitive states, ranking at the top of Bush's advertising priorities as well.
* The Democratic National Committee is airing commercials in most of those states to keep Kerry competitive with Bush's large ad budgets. In addition, the DNC is on the air in Nevada, Maine, Washington state, and Minnesota. Nevada is a GOP-leaning state Kerry would like to win. The other three voted Democratic in 2000, and Kerry can't afford to lose them. The DNC has only a mid-sized buy in dead-even Minnesota.
* Kerry strategist Tad Devine said the campaign had several million dollars in advertising time reserved for Missouri, Colorado, Arizona, North Carolina, Louisiana and Arkansas, which he called a sign of commitment to those battlegrounds. But the ads aren't scheduled to air until October, if then. No money has been given to TV stations for the October buys.
"We're at the point of the campaign where we had to make an honest first cut, but our options are still open in all these states," Devine said.
Virginia wasn't included at all.
Let’s look over this list again, and remember that to win, Kerry needs all of the Gore states, plus another seven votes because of reallocation of electoral votes after the census. Kerry is spending money in six Gore states: Iowa, New Mexico, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Michigan and Oregon, as well as four Bush states he hopes to pick up, Florida, Ohio, West Virginia, New Hampshire. West Virginia has five electoral votes, New Hampshire has four. Neither one alone is enough to put Kerry over the top (presuming he carries all of Gore’s states.)
The DNC is spending in three Gore states - Maine, Washington state, and Minnesota, as well as Bush state Nevada. Nevada has five. Again, if Kerry were to carry all of the Gore states, and Nevada, he still would only have 265 electoral votes to Bush’s 273. (How furious will the Democrats be if their man wins more states than Gore did four years ago, and still ends up with fewer electoral votes?)
But all of this assumes Kerry carries all of Gore’s states, and right now, at least four - Iowa, Minnesota, Wisconsin and New Mexico - look shaky.
It’s still a bit early to write off some of these states, but right now, it appears the map of competitive states is shrinking in an ominous way for the Kerry camp.
[Posted 09/09 10:35 AM]
If Kerry is truly up by only 4 pts in Jersey...he'd better spend some money there...Also, my sister in Connecticut tells me Kerry may be in trouble in Connecticut.
At this rate, CBiaS news will start reporting about how well Kerry is doing in the Battleground states of Massachusetts and Hawaii.
We haven't seen a poll from CA recently. Between losses in NJ and possibly CA, Kerry wil be like a wishbone. Something's got to break.
I wonder if some of John Kerrys big money supporters are starting to withdraw their money. After all they didn't get rich by betting on losing horses.
I'm starting to think the most likely outcome is NH flips from Bush to Kerry, but Bush gains WI and NM. Everything else stays the same, and W earns 289 - 249 electoral college victory.
LOL!
Not to slam your sister, but I'll believe it when I see it.
Bush will win Minnesota. I know Minnesota has the liberal history, but the democrats have been losing for several election cycles and will continue to do so. The last statewide Democrat victory was Mark Dayton, who only beat Rod Grams because of relentless attacking of Grams screw up kid by the Star Tribune. Hubert Humphrey's kid lost, Mondale lost, Mondale's kid lost. People are trending away from the old Democrat party.
I find it difficult to believe...but Connecticut has elected Repubs as gov. and also in the congress. Connecticut was hit hard on 9-11. Many people there work in Finance. Plenty died in the Twin Towers. Almost everyone knows someone who died.
I think if Arnold could be convinced to campaign in California...we might even put California in Bush's column.
Methinks the Kerry staff want to save $$ for six-month transition payments for themselves after Frenchy gets stomped...
You're missing the manic subtlety of the Kerry campaign. Tey expect that the voters in Missouri, Colordo, et al will vote overwhelming for Kerry in joyous thanks at being spared two more months of endless political ads...
and de-fang Boxer?...
Isn't Sid's guy pal David Brock another loser?
Absolutely true....get rid of that harridan
---I'm starting to think the most likely outcome is NH flips from Bush to Kerry---
I can't even imagine that NH would be a Kerry state. No income tax, no sales tax, the selection for the Free State Movement. Live Free or Die as the state motto. I know it was close in 2000, but it was the only New England State to vote for Bush. New Hampshire will still be in the Bush column.
I also think that Maine has a chance to go for the President. We have a tax-cap initiative on the ballot as well as an anti-hunting initiative. Both will bring out conservative voters. We also have a dim governor and very dim House and Senate. I sense cahnge in the air.
They need a new ticket.
Good idea...Jersey people would be fools to elect Kerry. They are in the direct line of fire from terrorists.
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