Posted on 09/07/2004 8:23:43 AM PDT by SierraWasp
11:07am 09/07/04 Stocks seem to favor Pres. Bush: Smith Barney By Tomi Kilgore
NEW YORK (CBS.MW) -- Smith Barney equity strategist Tobias Levkovich said the stock market appears to be favoring President Bush due to concerns over challenger John Kerry's tax policies and a 'better off with the devil that you know' attitude. Therefore, he feels that any post-Republican National Convention boost in the polls for Bush could be seen as a near-term positive for stocks. Regarding the voting public, however, Levkovich believes that "roughly half the American public will be displeased" with the election outcome.
Back up that truck of yours to the stock fund loading dock!!!
A vote for Kerry/Edwards would be votes to raise taxes, tariffs and promote trial lawyers...the terrible "T's."
Investments in some simple index funds are simple and can back the businesses in America.
Of course the Girly Gloom and Doom Trolls on Free Republic will be trying to trash the good news your post represents.
Like their socialist brothers, the rats, good news for Americans is bad news for them.
Only "economic girly men" don't know this.....
Stocks seem to favor Pres. Bush: Smith Barney
This is strange as Democrats have been much better for stocks than Republicans over the last 120 or so years.
Right now, I've got a soon to be XXXX, trying to back her truck up to my loading dock, with a John Edwards style snake helping her. But this is good news.
Any new picks?
Nice day across the board with the indexes for America and around the world.
After Kerry won the rat race, the market indexes started to slide in anticipation of an elite Socialists in charge of America.
When the Swift Boat Vet ads started to hammer Spitball moi Kerri, the market indexes started moving up.
As I noted before, the only thing that can drive the indexes down will be acts and threats of terrorism.
Sure good to git a holler frum ya, however. I've missed seeing your brilliant replies. Shoot! Now ya gotta be concentratin on yer brilliant reTorts!!!
Give that sneaky snake of hers nuthin but GAS!!!(should,'t be hard for an ol gas well digger)
Right on! But be careful out there as sustained September rallies are a rare and beautiful thing!!!
By Tomi Kilgore, CBS.MarketWatch.com Last Update: 9:40 PM ET Sept. 7, 2004
NEW YORK (CBS.MW) -- Over the next two months, whoever wins November's presidential election may be less important to U.S. investors than the margin of victory come Election Day.
With the close of the Republican National convention in New York last week, the presidential race entered its final leg. And generally, that's a good time for the stock market.
Contrary to its standing as the worst month for stocks, September produced a positive average return for the S&P 500 Index in presidential-election years since 1952. Add in October, and the two-month return also beats the average September-October period.
Yet returns were vastly different based on the election results: Investors bid up stocks when they sensed a landslide, and shied away when the outcome appeared in doubt.
In the 13 presidential-election years since 1952, the S&P 500 rose an average 2.2 percent in the two months before the 10 elections where the winner reaped two-thirds or more of electoral votes. Prior to the three with narrower margins, the index fell 4 percent on average.
"The weakness likely reflects an undecided electorate, and a group of traders preoccupied with who will win the election," said Jeffrey Hirsch, editor of the Stock Trader's Almanac. "Markets don't like uncertainty."
Split decisions
September is historically the weakest month for stocks. The S&P 500 Index ($SPX: news, chart, profile) fell an average of 0.8 percent in September since 1950, the Stock Traders Almanac said. Yet it gained an average of 0.6 percent during the month in the presidential-election years.
If you add in October, the index rose a scant 0.1 percent on average in the September-October period. But it advanced an average of 0.8 percent in those two months prior to presidential elections.
The caveat is the September-October effect only produced gains as voters embraced a clear-cut favorite. That does not bode well for this year, since the Bush-Kerry race appears headed for a tight finish.
Consider the market's performance during the three hotly contested elections since 1952:
In the two months before the November 2000 election -- in which George W. Bush lost the popular vote to Al Gore while eking out 50.5 percent of electoral votes - the S&P 500 fell 5.8 percent.
When Jimmy Carter beat Gerald Ford in 1976 with 55 percent of electoral votes, the S&P 500 was virtually unchanged during the September-October period.
In 1960, when John F. Kennedy defeated Richard Nixon with 58 percent of the electoral votes, the S&P 500 fell 6.3 percent in the two months prior to the election. Voting with their pocketbook
The Stock Trader's Almanac, which analyzed presidential-election results and stock-market performance back to 1900, says the direction of stocks may reveal more about who wins the election than the other way around.
Of the 16 times since 1900 when the incumbent beat the challenger, the Dow Jones Industrials Average ($INDU: news, chart, profile) rose 14 times for an 8.6 percent average gain in the last convention-to-election period. Of the 10 times the incumbent failed to retain power, however, the Dow fell seven times.
The Almanac also said the Dow rose 16 percent on average for the calendar year when the incumbent retained power, vs. a 1.4 percent average loss when they were ousted.
"Presidential elections every four years have a profound impact on the economy and the stock market," the Almanac says. "Wars, recessions and bear markets tend to start or occur in the first half of the term; prosperous times and bull markets, in the latter half."
A twist on what Kennedy said in his 1961 inaugural address might go: "Ask not what the election outcome might do for stocks, but what stocks' performance might say about the election."
If that's that case, forget party politics and focus on the prospect of a clear and convincing winner emerging. For unless President George Bush or Sen. John Kerry seizes a commanding lead and holds it through the polling, odds favor an overcast two-month stretch ahead.
My sympathies, I've been thru that drill!
The Street.com is saying stay away from the Tech stocks.
So far Kilgore has been way off target with his dour September results.
What kindofa guy has a name like Tomi, anyways? Phhhhht!!!
Maybe Tomi isn't a guy!
Dave,
Sorry for the late reply, and not a whole lot of time to write right now (a houseful of company for another twenty-four hours yet), but in a nutshell:
I am still confidently invested in WHT. Unless I begin to sense that the Coeur offer involves some kind of backroom dealings to which the average investor hasn’t been privy, I'm assuming Coeur will disappear come mid-October, and that particular (ludicrous, deceptive) albatross will be gone – which should allow WHT to rise to her fair value (right now, about $6-$6.50).
Am also heavily into TVIN (made my first purchases back in late 2002, and she has done really well since then, but I'm convinced that her future will be even rosier than her recent past). She’s experienced an explosive upward move over the last week or so, on huge relative volume (that's not sustainable, but a portent of things to come). She was just moved from over-the-counter to the NASDAQ last week, which could account for some, but not all, of the rise. Do some of your own DD on this stock. She's in just the right sector, and has stellar fundamentals (and new contracts coming in all the time, with the prospects of many more, sadly … what with the geopolitical situation being what it is).
Just a cursory overview of two good ones, IMO. :)
~ joanie
p.s. In defense of my own comments, per yours of last week (I forgot to ping you :(
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1204721/posts?page=120#120
You have Freepmail.
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