BULLETINHURRICANE IVAN ADVISORY NUMBER 11 IVAN BECOMES THE FIFTH HURRICANE OF THE 2004 SEASON

NOAA National Hurricane Center ^ | September 5, 2004 | NOAA National Hurricane Center

[bd476]

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000 WTNT34 KNHC 050837 TCPAT4 BULLETIN HURRICANE IVAN ADVISORY NUMBER 11 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 AM AST SUN SEP 05 2004

...IVAN BECOMES THE FIFTH HURRICANE OF THE 2004 SEASON...

INTERESTS IN THE LESSER ANTILLES SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF IVAN.

AT 5 AM AST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IVAN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 9.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 44.3 WEST OR ABOUT 1210 MILES... 1950 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES.

IVAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 21 MPH...33 KM/HR. A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES... 35 KM... FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 987 MB...29.15 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 5 AM AST POSITION... 9.7 N... 44.3 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST NEAR 21 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 75 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 987 MB.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 11 AM AST.

FORECASTER BEVEN

$$

[bd476]

Good link, Dog Gone. Ivan's looking pretty grim.

[bd476]

Maybe I'm too optimistic, but I'm still hoping it'll go due West, and dissipate on some vacant land mass South of the US.

[bd476]

Probability list for Hurricane Ivan Ping: Optimistic look from now until this Saturday 2 AM.

[bd476]

Probability list for Hurricane Ivan: Optimistic Ping

[Dog Gone]

Yeah, but what are the odds for Monday and Tuesday?

[Sam Cree]

Thanks for the ping. Well, I see that there are 2 more areas of disturbed weather to the east, one off Cape Verde Islands, for us to worry about, once this thing has made up its mind what it's going to do.

[alancarp]

Well that link kinda sucks... (nothing personal, of course). Here we go again...

[Brytani]

I don't like this model - can I have another one please?

[bd476]

Updated Hurricane Ivan Advisory 08 Sept 2004 Ping

[weatherFrEaK]

From http://www.stormcarib.com

Based on an interview with someone in Grenada last night via cell phone, she said that very few trees are still standing, very few if any houses still have roofs on them and people got trapped in their own homes as their houses collapsed during the hurricane. I was told that the islands is completely flatened. There are people still missing. The city is in complete ruins and the whole island has suffered catastrophic destruction. They said that they will need all the help that they can possibly get.

Tens of thoudands of persons have been made homeless by this hurricane which is already described as the worst the country has ever witnessed even without any damage assessments carried out as yet. There are no communication networks available except maybe cells phone service in certain areas. All the radio stations are off air because their buildings suffered severe to complete damage. The island has been turned upside-down.

All of the Caribbean Islands including St. Lucia has been through a destructive hurricane or a deadly volcanic eruption in the past and we have all been able to pick up the pieces and start our lives all over again so together we will stand and offer all the to assistance our neighbouring islands need so that they can put their nations back in order where it belongs. I would like to tell anyone in the path of or within 200miles of the path of this dangerous hurricane, especially Jamaicans, to take this system VERY seriously.

[browardchad]

I'm telling my mother-in-law in Ft Lauderdale area to get stocked up now as best she can. People in FL should keep their gas tanks topped off starting now, if possible (I realize that many gas stations are still out).

My husband's on the road all day in the Fort Lauderdale area, and there's no problem finding gas right now. The biggest problem, as of yesterday, was non-functioning traffic lights due to lingering power outages in some neighborhoods in both east and west Broward.

Tell your mother-in-law to be careful on the roads; we had two fatalities not far from where I live, before the worst of the storm even hit.

[bd476]

BTTT. Beyond words here. God Bless them and anyone in the path.

[Dog Gone]

You can try the Canadian model, but that's not going to please the residents of New Orleans or Mobile.

[bd476]

It's terribly unsettling watching this hurricane gaining even more strength while it moves along. The other weather systems in development need to stay small.

[bd476]

Well from an optimistic viewpoint, if the odds are miniscule through Saturday, how's about a 1% increase for the following week? That's the best case scenario and the only one I want.

[bd476]

Ping.

[Gabz]

Good grief..........that's all I can say.

[bd476]

It's tragedy beyond comprehension.

[Sam Cree]

Yeah, agreed.
I'm about ready to skip town for a week or two. We were in So Dade for Andrew, going through that once is more than enough.
The only problem is what to do with my dogs.

[bd476]

It is looking that bad, isn't it.

Devastation on Grenada