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Bobby Scott is in a district that winds around our district like a snake. It was jerry-rigged years ago to assure a majority of minorities voters a Representative in Congress. The only way she can win is to appeal to the 47% of the non-minority voters in the district and if the minority voters in the district do not go to the poles and if Scott feels himself so secure he does not put up much of a fight. Scott has a lot of money and support...from where I don't know but a lot of military families in the district do not appreciate his stance on the war.

Winsome as been knocking on doors, and going to black churches to spread the word. The reaction so far has been VERY positive.

His positions on Gay Marriage and partial birth abortions to NOT sit well with the black community. We need to raise money by Labor Day for advertising. I hope you can help. Please spread the word throughout Virginia by forwarding this post to everyone on your mailing list!!

"The only way she can win is to appeal to the 47% of the non-minority voters in the district and if the minority voters in the district do not go to the poles and if Scott feels himself so secure he does not put up much of a fight."

Not necessarily; there might be other ways for her Winsome Sears to win. A conservative Republican, she was able to defeat an incumbent black Democrat for the State Assembly from an overwhelmingly black (and Democrat) district in Norfolk. Now, she is challenging Congressman Bobby Scott in a heavily-Democrat (and 56% black) district that stretches from black neighborhoods in Norfolk and Portsmouth all the way up to black neighborhoods in Richmond. The district only gave Bush 31.6% in 2000, and the odds of winning would be insurmountable for anyone other than Winsome Sears. Assuming that approximately 52% of general-election voters are black, I estimate that Bush received around 55% of the non-black vote in the CD (which is pretty much the white Anglo vote, since the Hispanic, Asian and Native American population in the district is only 6%). Sears would need to receive 35% of the black vote and over 65% of the non-black vote in order to defeat Bobby Scott. Getting over 65% of the non-black vote may not be all that difficult, since Scott is one of the most liberal members of Congress (his 2002 ACU rating was 4, and his lifetime rating is 8) and Bush would have received well over 55% of the non-black vote had his opponent been someone like Scott instead of the (allegedly) more moderate Al Gore. The big question, of course, is whether Sears can get 35% of the black vote. She has exceeded that number before, but that was in her hometown of Norfolk. I wish Winsome Sears Godspeed, since a victory for her over Bobby Scott would be the political upset of the year, much more so than the defeat of Dennis Kucinich in his Cleveland House seat or Barbara Boxer in California.