We'll see.
The thing I think you're missing from your equation is the fact that there are many blacks of faith who at some point are going to tire of the Dem plantation, where gay marriage and abortion (of a huge number of blacks) is the order of the day, and where school choice is a distant dream.
Again, I could be wrong.....but after years of trying to run black conservatives and appeal to these conservative instincts without making any headway, you have to start wondering.
As you say, however, Keyes will have a chance to prove me wrong. I hope he does!