Posted on 08/09/2004 6:14:08 PM PDT by wagglebee
Amid a flurry of increasingly strident warnings from China over the fate of Taiwan, the commander of US military forces in Asia and the Pacific has quietly cautioned the Chinese not to miscalculate American capabilities and intentions.
During a visit to Beijing, Admiral Thomas Fargo told Chinese political and military leaders that US Pacific sea and air forces maintain a high state of readiness, in contrast to the drain on ground troops from deployments to Iraq and Afghanistan. Soldiers and Marines from the West Coast, Hawaii, South Korea and Okinawa are either already stationed in Asia or on the way.
The admiral, according to US officials, repeated President W. George Bush's admonition that the US expects neither China nor Taiwan to change the status quo either by force or unilaterally. In private but not in public, Fargo told the Chinese his command was prepared to use armed force to help defend Taiwan if the president so ordered.
In the last few months, Chinese leaders have repeatedly warned that they would launch an attack on Taiwan if President Chen Shui-bian declared his nation's formal independence from China. The Chinese have asserted that their "one China" policy, with Taiwan submitting to Beijing, is the only solution to the issue.
Knowledgeable American officials said Chen has no intention of declaring independence. He realizes it would trigger a Chinese assault that could devastate Taiwan. Polls in Taiwan show that a solid majority prefers the status quo. And Chen has accepted cautions from Washington that he not push across a "red line" that would cause war.
Amid this tension, Bush administration officials have not countered the Chinese in public, evidently because they are so preoccupied with Iraq.
The immediate cause for Chinese belligerence is negotiations between Washington and Taipei over US$18 billion worth of advanced weapons and diesel-electric submarines for use in the 190km-wide Taiwan Strait.
Bush has approved the sale but Taiwan's legislature has yet to appropriate funds and has been haggling over costs. US officials warn privately that Taiwan must do more to help itself if it is to retain American support and should not leave its defense to the US.
Beijing's protests escalated last week when President Hu Jintao (JÀAÀÜ) telephoned Bush to demand that the sale of advanced weapons to Taiwan cease. Hu told Bush the Taiwan issue was "very sensitive" and China would "absolutely not tolerate Taiwan independence."
Earlier last month, Bush's national security adviser, Condoleeza Rice, got the same message when she visited Beijing. Fargo heard similar lectures.
In addition, the government-controlled Chinese press has said that the Taiwan Relations Act under which the arms sales will be made was a "ridiculous law" that allows the US to interfere with China's internal affairs.
In hostilities over Taiwan, the brunt of US engagement would be borne by air and sea power, some based on Guam. Fargo pointedly stopped there on his way to China. Air power would be projected by Navy carriers, of which six are in the Pacific fleet, and from Guam and possibly the Japanese island of Okinawa.
The US frequently flies B-1 and B-52 bombers to Guam from the US and, in a change from its previous secrecy, makes sure the Chinese and the world know. In addition, Fargo has asked for another carrier to be shifted to the Pacific.
At sea, the US has moved two nuclear-powered attack submarines to Guam from Hawaii to put them closer to areas of possible operation. A third submarine is due to the assigned there shortly.
In the last few months, Chinese leaders have repeatedly warned that they would launch an attack on Taiwan if President Chen Shui-bian declared his nation's formal independence from China.
I don't think this is a war that the US or China wants, it would be potentially devestating for both of us. But I am happy that we are prepared to defend Taiwan if necessary.
It's also important to remember that it would never have come to this if Comrade Carter hadn't betrayed Taiwan the way he did back in 1978. Additionally, the billions of dollars that we pour into the Chinese economy aren't exactly helping things.
The Brits gave Hong Kong to the PRC and they weren't expecting it. Emboldened, they've painted themselves in a corner.
Some close second hand info; my son is a "nuke" on a sub in Guam. He is pushing 14 hour days constantly , their alert level is high. It is all business and few times of fun and games. He has expressed nothing but admiration for all his shipmates and their dedication. Their ship and others like it are ready willing and able!
I am afraid the only way we can avoid it is to right now economically treat the PRC like Reagan did the Soviets, and not back down.
It would mean terrible financial harship...but not as bad as war will be...but if pushed, we have to be prepared to fight as well, and the Chinese MUST know this, we have to make it very clear to them. Hopefully, that is what Admiral Fargo was about.
They've had it too good too long on the Japanese model - running trade surpluses with the US while under its protection.
They just need an unfriendly reminder from time to time.
Hats off to your son.
Let him know he is very much appreciated back here.
The Chinese don't want a war either. They are fully aware a 'Rat president will give them whatever they want!
Actually, the US consistently has had a trade surplus with Taiwan due in large part to their purchases of military hardware and aircraft. It may surprise you to know that Ford is the largest seller of automobiles in Taiwan as well.
Treat them as Reagan did the Soviets and they will either change, or implode from within...just like the Soviets did. Only it will take longer and be tougher on us economically since we have allowed the PRC to go so far already.
Otherwise, they will use our own monies to buy, develop, and deploy weapons we will have to fight.
They apparantly AREN'T serious about defending themselves. Nice knowin' ya, Taiwan.
GOD bless every one of them for it!!!!
LLS
Hi Jeff - I read some clips from your book but have not had time to pick them up. It's on my "someday" list when I am down to working 10 hours a day and can enjoy some good fiction.
I would think the Chinese would launch an invasion into the Middle East for an oil grab and simply use their navy and ballistic missles to slow our delivery of troop deployments and supplies. China's biggest problem seems to me energy, not Taiwan. Your thoughts?
Perhaps we should announce to China that we have 8000 mirvs pointed at China and we will "absolutely not tolerate Chinese independence."
After all, what is good for the goose is good for the gander.
As we try to respond to the second front, China makes its move at Taiwan, the South China Sea and into Burma.
When they come into it, an horrific attack is unleashed by tens of thousands of terrorists and sleeper cells (Islamic and Chinese, as well as others) within the CONUS.
World War.
China secures its energy needs through an exclusive agreement with Russia and India regarding Siberia. They also benefit from gains by their allies in the Middle East. Initially, Russia is nuetral in the war.
I would agree. I personally do everything I can not to buy Chinese-made goods.
I hope all goes well, i.e., nothing happens. The last thing China needs is a war that would cripple it's economic engine.
China depends on the developed nations for market and technology access to move into the 21st century.
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