Posted on 08/07/2004 6:13:34 PM PDT by NormsRevenge
SAN DIEGO - With new storm clouds over job growth, a weakened stock market and growing public unease over Iraq, California Republicans appear divided over whether President George Bush will win a second term Nov. 2. Though a new poll shows Bush running 11 points behind Democratic nominee John Kerry in California, some GOP members meeting here for a three-day state convention predicted a tight race would widen in Bush's favor after the national GOP convention this month in New York City.
Other members of the state's minority party members say the contest may be "nip and tuck" nationally, but that California and it's 55 electoral votes - the most in the nation - is probably a lost cause for the GOP's presidential ticket.
Bush failed to carry California in 2000
Those who remain optimistic about Bush's November prospects cited Kerry's lack of a post-convention "bounce" this month, the customary lift candidates get in polls after their national nominating gathering.
"You haven't had that since George McGovern in 1972," Orange County delegate Steve Becker said.
Becker, 37, a party recruiter and candidate for the Lake Forest City Council, said he can't fathom how Kerry, a "northeastern liberal," can carry the South, which has been key to the strides the GOP has made in recent elections. Kerry, he said, lacks the populist touch that Southern voters associated with former President Bill Clinton.
"Bush may not be the sharpest stick out there, but he can connect with people," Becker said.
But party veteran Janine Blum, 81, said she's fielded many calls from fellow Republicans in Santa Barbara County who don't like Bush, but don't want to vote for Kerry.
"I tell them, 'Wait until the convention and see if you think differently,'" she said.
While the official party line predicts a Bush victory in California, Blum said, "I don't think so." She said the president needs to make more personal visits to the state, and called the national outcome with 87 days remaining until the election "nip and tuck."
Likewise, GOP pollster Steve Kinney of Hermosa Beach, wouldn't guess when delegates asked about November's most likely outcome. Citing the race's extreme polarization, Kinney said, "I'll be happy to come out of the national convention with what we have now."
Republican congressional candidate Doug McNea, of Santa Clara, agreed that Bush will likely lose California. But McNea, 57, a Vietnam veteran running against Rep. Zoe Lofgren, D-San Jose, said he thinks Bush will defeat Kerry nationally.
State Democratic leaders scoff at Republican claims that Bush will carry California in November. They expect a 70 percent turnout dominated by Democratic, young and minority voters who will reject Bush, U.S. Senate candidate Bill Jones and many Republican legislative candidates.
As Republicans met for a second day of their weekend convention in this Republican-dominated corner of California, Jones, who is trailing in polls and fund-raising in his effort to unseat U.S. Sen. Barbara Boxer, assured delegates, "This race is clearly winnable."
Jones cited his record as a co-writer of the state's "Three Strikes and You're Out" law and said Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger needs Republican help in Washington, D.C. The candidate also attacked Boxer for a liberal voting record and Kerry for being "on both sides of every war in the last generation."
Afterward, he said he still has not delivered to his campaign the $2 million in personal funds he promised last month.
"When we require the resources, we will have them" he said.
Veterans held their own news conference at the state convention, criticizing fellow veteran Kerry for protesting the Vietnam war after his return from service.
"I was tortured to write letters to John Kerry and others at the time," said former U.S. Navy Vice Admiral Ed Martin of San Diego, who was a prisoner of war in North Vietnam for six years. "Our tormentors used him against us.
African-American conservatives also praised the Bush-Cheney ticket on Saturday, calling the president a "moral man" in tune with many black Americans' attitudes against gay marriage.
Roxanne Petteway, of Temecula, said Bush has delivered more small business loans for black entrepreneurs than Clinton and opened the way for more home ownership.
"For the first time in American history," she said, "the majority of African-Americans own homes...That's the American dream."
Delegates are scheduled Sunday to vote the party's position on November ballot measures. They are expected to oppose changing "Three Strikes and You're Out" criminal penalties and expanding gambling to race tracks and urban areas.
Preliminary meetings here also showed the party opposing Proposition 71, a $3 billion bond for stem cell research in California, and Proposition 62, a business-backed November ballot measure to bring a Louisiana-style open primary system to California.
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On the Net:
California Republican Party: http://www.cagop.org
California Democratic Party: http://ca-dem.org
Too many girlie men, and manly girls in California. The place is a wreck.
"I was tortured to write letters to John Kerry and others at the time," said former U.S. Navy Vice Admiral Ed Martin of San Diego, who was a prisoner of war in North Vietnam for six years. "Our tormentors used him against us."
"For the first time in American history," she said, "the majority of African-Americans own homes...That's the American dream."
If true, Bush can't win California. He will need every Republican to vote for him, and either a bajillion Rats to stay home or cast a crossover vote.
The Republican party has the most registered Republicans in one state in our entire nation, and yet they can't come up with any leaders who people could want to follow.
That is the problem with why things don't progress toward the right in California and until the leadership finds some talent out there and has the guts to step aside and let them lead, we will go NOWHERE!
We have to be better than Democrats because they want to give away the state treasury and conservatives want to move away from that, which is not as popular as getting free stuff.
Sounds like progress. Last time it was simply hopeless to think a Republican could win anything in CA,
Good news if you ask me.
Outside of Arnold, what other great cards have we to play that are popular in your opinion?
The mere fact that only half the R's now think it's hopeless in CA is progress. One step at a time.
I'm all for the one step at a time and was saying just that during the governor's race.
My issue is I see no effective development of people from withing ranks that have the ability to be likable leaders.
Likability is key and we haven't many keys in California.
that was from within ranks, not withing.
Looks to me that is why the R's have Auhnold speaking at the convention. Issues like abortion are being neutralized by technology, so it's time to let this one go for another day. Putting aside some of these old divisive dim issues and starting anew is the answer to building a new majority R party with room for all.
You get zero if you are not driving. So let's drive.
I think Arnold was great for Republicans and California at this time. I support him, but the rest of the team here in CA is weak.
Where are the leaders that the party needs?
You would think we would have more, not less with all the growing population numbers.
Viva La Resistance... May California Be Free!!!
I suspect the old guard (those with current positions of power), don't want to let it go to better people who ARE NOT THEM.
If there is talent out there, not only do they need to defeat enemies of the left, but I suspect they have those in their own party who don't help them because that is contrary to their personal careers.
Level B politicians who have reached their peak won't let those who could DO IT, or we really lack talent.
It's one or the other, I suspect my first example is the way it is though.
Nice plan, but I'm not so sure Arnold wants that job.
Would be nice if he did, but I think he has the business and financial issues of the state first and perhaps developing the Republican party in CA much closer to the bottom.
Granted the Democrats have been pissing him off as of late, Arnold can do that and it would put in place the controls he needs to put this state into a more rational state of leadership.
Maybe some of those working for Arnold will read this and Arnold himself may come to learn the biggest mark and gift to this state he could make is who he could help create politically that will better care for this state.
He would have one great legacy for his personal life if he did that.
That is the way I feel about it.
Analyzing John Kerry we know that he may, or may not, had been a war hero in Viet Nam. He claims to be BUT will not release his military records and medical records to confirm that claim.
We also know that Kerry vehemently protested the Viet Nam war, along side Jane Fonda, after his return to the US by being a leader of the Viet Nam Veterans Against the War (VVAW). And we know that Kerry's VVAW voted to assassinate United States congressmen who were sympathetic to the Viet Nam war!
We know that John Kerry's performance as a United States Senator from Massachusetts was on the very far left of the political spectrum making him more liberal than Ted Kennedy. We also know from that senatorial performance that he offered very little as far as bills are concerned that would better this country.
We know that John Kerry has taken both sides of nearly every issue ultimately voting along liberal democrat party lines on each issue.
We know that John Heinz Kerry's run for the presidency would have died last November if it were not for his rich wife's 6.7 million dollar loan to him.
We know that John Kerry is an opportunist who would do almost anything to promote his own image. (Made home videos of the location of his killing an unarmed, wounded, fleeing Viet Cong enemy soldier, obviously to record his greatness for posterity).
Then we have GW Bush, who as the writer states may not be the sharpest stick in the pack, who has prevented another 9/11 for nearly three years.
Who has taken the terrorist game to the terrorist cave and not in Peoria, Illinois.
Who has improved on an economy that was handed to him. (I know, some will say BUT unemployment is still high? But for eight years of the Clinton administration I heard Robert Rubin, who some acclaim as an economy saint, say that jobs are a lagging indicator. Lagging sometimes by 6 months to a year after a slowdown.)
We know that GW Bush is basically an honest and decent guy (as much as a politician can be) and has strong convictions about life, liberty, and the pursuit of happiness for all in this country.
And we know that Mrs GW Bush is a hell of a lot more appealing to the American public than Mrs John Kerry (if that's what she is calling herself these days.)
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