Kerry: GOP 'turned the corner' going wrong way (Edwards: newborns out pace jobs)

Daily News ^ | 8/06/04 | Katharine Q. Seelye

[Libloather]

Kerry: GOP 'turned the corner' going wrong way
By Katharine Q. Seelye
The New York Times

WASHINGTON -- All week long, President George W. Bush traveled the country, cheerfully telling audiences that "we've turned the corner" on the economy. But on Friday, in the face of the government's paltry new numbers on job growth, the president's new slogan suddenly sounded premature at best.

By now, Republicans had hoped that the early indications this year that the economy was indeed turning the corner would have allowed them to neutralize, or even turn to their advantage, the issue that John Kerry had once considered central to his White House hopes. Instead, the new numbers, coming just three weeks before the Republican convention, leave little doubt that the economy could still be a potent issue for the Democrats.

Rather than address his vulnerability head-on Friday, Bush delivered an upbeat assessment of the economy, saying it was getting stronger and lauding the American entrepreneurial spirit. "There's more work to do to make this economy stronger," he said at a rally at a farm in Stratham, N.H. "We've been through a recession. We've been through corporate scandals. We've been through a terrorist attack. But we've overcome these obstacles because our workers are great, because our farmers are really good at what they do. We've overcome these obstacles because the entrepreneurial spirit is strong."

This prompted cheers of "four more years."

In contrast, Kerry seized on the numbers with relish. At a farm in Smithville, Mo., outside Kansas City, Kerry made fun of Bush, though not by name. "In the last few days you've heard people in positions of leadership on the other side saying America has turned the corner," he said. "Well it must have been a U-turn, or else they're continually turning and they're going around in circles and ending up right back where they started from."

The timing of the new economic numbers is particularly perilous for Bush because he is trying to build momentum in the run-up to his convention. It is also the period in the presidential campaign when voters' perceptions begin to harden.

After a sweep of encouraging economic news through the spring, the disappointing numbers in the past two months -- capped by the ones Friday -- gives weight to the Democrats' argument that while the economy might not be terrible, things are not going so well. The next set of jobless numbers is to be issued Sept. 3, the day after Bush accepts his party's nomination. After that, the October numbers will be the last before the Nov. 2 election.

That means the president has just two more chances for an improved outlook.

Analysts said Friday's news would make it hard for the Bush campaign to change the subject from the economy.

"The economy doesn't go away as a campaign issue," said Andrew Kohut, the director of the Pew Research Center for the People and the Press. "And with no sign of progress, it really puts the Republicans on the defensive."

This could be particularly true in states such as Ohio, Michigan and Missouri, which have lost the most jobs since Bush became president. They are also among the states where polls show the election to be neck and neck.

Even before the latest numbers, polls showed that the public has more faith in Bush as commander in chief -- and less faith in him to manage the economy -- than in Kerry. To that end, in a hint of how Bush is approaching the issue, on Friday he went from playing down the numbers to quickly turning his rhetoric back to Topic A, terror. The endless stream of e-mails from his campaign to reporters focused on terror, not the economy. Similarly, the subject of his radio address today was terror, not the economy.

The campaigns dispute the effect that the jobs numbers will have on voters. David Winston, a Republican pollster, said the numbers were disappointing, but insisted that voters should not judge the president on them. "It's (as) if you have a baseball player like Barry Bonds and he goes 0 for 4 one day and you decide to trade him, as opposed to looking at the totality of his performance for the entire season," he said.

Rep. Tom DeLay, R-Texas, who is the House majority leader, lauded the dip in the unemployment rate. "These statistics show that our economy is moving in the right direction," he said in a printed statement, "but also that there is more work to be done." He has been seeking to make the Bush tax cuts permanent.

But Tad Devine, a senior strategist for the Kerry campaign, said voters' perceptions were solidifying and any suggestion that they should wait until Election Day to assess Bush and the economy was "ludicrous."

"The American people are looking for solutions," he said. "What they want to hear is what Kerry and Edwards are going to do about jobs. That will be our focus, not the shortcomings of this administration."

Devine said voters do not want to hear Kerry denigrate Bush, but they want to hear how Kerry will make things better, which means the Kerry economic plan will come under new scrutiny.

But just in case the Kerry team dwells on what some Democrats are calling the jobless economy, Devine added: "Of course, it will be referenced in the normal course of political dialogue, but it will not be our focus."

The Kerry plan to reverse what Democrats called the anemic job growth also involves controlling health care costs and energy costs. Kerry would also refund the payroll taxes for companies that hire new employees, cut taxes for businesses that create jobs in the United States and eliminate tax breaks for American companies that move their jobs overseas. He also speaks frequently of restoring the fiscal discipline of the Clinton administration. During his acceptance speech at the Democratic convention, he underscored the point by having Robert Rubin, Clinton's treasury secretary who is well-respected on Wall Street, sit next to Kerry's wife.

Kerry's running mate, John Edwards, gently put the numbers in perspective. He noted that more than 300,000 children were born in the United States last month, suggesting that only 32,000 new jobs showed "we're not quite keeping up."

But the bad jobs news holds perils for the Democrats as well, largely under the category of the old political advice against celebrating misery.

Kohut said the economy, the War on Terror and the war in Iraq are "a triumvirate" of issues important to voters this year. But the economy, he said, "is a persistent source of discontent," unlike the other two, which can ebb and flow depending on daily events. He said the numbers gave the Democrats the ability to keep hammering the idea that the president's policies are taking the country in the wrong direction.

"This is a real difficult thing for Bush," he said.

Even so, the president made clear he would not be giving the Democrats any sound bites of him admitting to a faltering economy.

Campaigning in New Hampshire, he said his "well-timed tax cuts" had produced a strong economy despite setbacks. "We've been through a lot -- a recession, corporate scandals, the terrorist attacks -- but we've overcome these obstacles because our workers are great," he said.

He left it to others to discuss how the economy might be improved -- but, again, without admitting a problem. Donald L. Evans, the secretary of commerce, released a statement finding hope in the dip in unemployment, to 5.5 percent from 5.6 percent, and saying "the American economy is moving in the right direction."

Still, the Democrats were determine to emphasize the figures as affirmation that Bush is taking the country in the wrong direction -- and they have no plans to let up before November.

[Cboldt]

Kerry's running mate, John Edwards, gently put the numbers in perspective. He noted that more than 300,000 children were born in the United States last month, suggesting that only 32,000 new jobs showed "we're not quite keeping up."

Yeah, and if we put them (the children) to work, he'd be decrying it as a return to the days of child labor.

Whadda maroon. (tip o' the hat to Bugs Bunny)

[sully777]

How did this goofball ever get to be a lawyer?

---

Wonder if he and Kerry were bullied for being wussy-boys/know-it-alls in grade school to high school? Just a hunch I have by observation of others of like-kind.

[Libloather]

Please, please, please tell me that the quote by Edwards is a spoof.

I heard him say it on the radio. Damn near fell out of my chair...

[visagoth]

I think kEdwards should do a bit of demographic study before they start making blanket statements: A quick Google search for "the coming job crisis" will bring you to an interesting .PDF from Ken Blanchard, that speaks to the changing demographic study that refutes kEdwards claims.

Even better yet, see Impending Crisis: Too Many Jobs, Too Few People, by Roger Herman:

There’s a dangerously growing shortage of skilled workers to fill jobs. Projections from the Bureau of Labor Statistics forecast a shortage of skilled 10,033,000 workers by 2010. And this shortage is simply raw numbers; it doesn’t fully address the growing skills gap. The numbers also don’t take into account the changing attitudes in the workforce.

This crisis is just around the corner. Trends are converging to create an unprecedented dilemma for employers throughout the free world. Because so few corporate leaders are fully aware of their predicament, executives who do prepare for the new operating environment will lead their organizations to a bright future; those who ignore the threat risk dangerous vulnerability.

Even Monster.com has a nice report on the same 'problem'

[DustyMoment]

Good point.

[sully777]

IF Skerry-Backwards do get elected, God forbid, Two Year Olds will be forced to work...

---

I had a 13 year Olds that was on its last leg literally. The tie rod was broken and dragging on the ground. You're saying THEY CAN FORCE YOU TO WORK IN A TWO YEAR OLDS. What kind of country have we become? I tell you, before God Almighty, we are not a nation of Starfires, 98's, Delta 88s, Broughams, and Omegas alone. We are diverse. And by God's will, I will be forced to work in any vehicle I choose!

What's that? Two year old children forced to work not two year Olds forced to work? Nevermind.

[visagoth]

I forgot the other part from The Houston Chronicle (Houston, TX), Dec 9, 2001 p1

Education crucial to coming job crisis.
(BUSINESS)(Column) Jim Barlow.

Openings to surge

In just eight years, by 2010, there will be 58 million job openings in this country, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. The bureau, part of the U.S. Labor Department, figures between now and 2010 some 22 million new jobs will be created. And 36 million more openings will result from retirements and others who drop out of the workforce.

Nearly all that job growth, incidentally, will come in the service sector. Manufacturing jobs will grow at only three-tenths of a percent annually. That's not because those jobs are going overseas, by the way. Blame the slow growth in manufacturing on the fast growth in manufacturing productivity.

The biggest growth in this decade - some 6.9 million new jobs - will come in professional speciality occupations. When you factor in retirements, we're going to need at least 12 million new professionals and more than 5 million managers.

Ed Potter, president of the Employment Policy Foundations in Washington, said the foundation's analysis of job growth and what's currently happening in education shows we could be as short as 3.5 million professionals at the end of this decade.

Despite the current recession and layoffs, a survey of employers by the National Association of Manufacturers found 80 percent of companies say a severe shortage of qualified job candidates already exists. And 60 percent of those companies said the lack of skilled workers is affecting their ability to produce goods and services they could sell.

More high-income positions

Even in the midst of a recession, high income jobs continue to grow. In October of this year, jobs paying $1,100 per week or more - the top 14 percent - had grown by 7.5 percent from the year before. Those high-paying jobs accounted for 60 percent of the 6.5 million net jobs created since 1996.

Who gets those jobs? People with post-secondary education. Sure, that means people with college degrees. But many of those jobs are also going to those completing vocational programs.

Job growth in the past decade came almost exclusively for those with some sort of post-high school education or training. During the past 13 months, the unemployment rate for persons with less than a high school diploma grew from 8.2 percent to 9.8 percent. For those with vocational training, unemployment is only 3.7 percent. For those with a college degree it's 2.1 percent.

[Reagan Man]

>>>Kerry's running mate, John Edwards, gently put the numbers in perspective. He noted that more than 300,000 children were born in the United States last month, suggesting that only 32,000 new jobs showed "we're not quite keeping up."

Typical comments from a pro-abortion candidate. The facts are clear. Abortions in July topped the 100,000 mark. How does Johnnie Edwards explain the death of so many unborn human lives to the abomination of abortion on demand?

[GailA]

The Kerry plan to reverse what Democrats called the anemic job growth also involves controlling health care costs and energy costs.

can you say price controls?

[GailA]

One of the sound bites out of NH said their unemployment rate was like 3.6 or 7, TN's 4.8. NH shouldn't be this low given how liberal the state is. TN shouldn't be this low given how high taxed we are. Note both have NO state income taxes.

[hershey]

It's embarrassing for Kerry to shout 'Raise taxes on the rich', when the billionaire dominatrix missus is standing beside him. Who'd believe him? He didn't marry TerAYsa Heinz for her good looks.

[hershey]

Yup, Bush said he didn't do nuance. Now's not the time to start. No more PC crap. Those who buy into that nonsense won't vote for him anyway.

[FairOpinion]

This is preposterous -- more of Edwards' "Junk science" and misdirections.

Teh babies born today won't be in the work force for at least 18 years, most likely 22 years (after college).

Does Edwards know how many jobs there will be available in 20 years?

The jobs created today are only relevant to people elegible for the workforce today.

They are really grasping at straws, and also counting on the stupidity of the people. I certainly hope the American people are smarter, than to fall for this utter nonsense.

[nmh]

"He noted that more than 300,000 children were born in the United States last month
This is a serious problem. Edwards should get his buddies at Planned Parenthood to kill more of these useless eaters."

Yup! You read my mind. Time to kill innocent babies again.

[Southack]

"In contrast, Kerry seized on the numbers with relish."

What does it say about a man's character and patriotism that he relishes bad news for his own country?

Also, Senator Kerry and Senator Edwards are in no position to criticize President Bush on the economy. If they have a better idea for our economy, they can submit a bill to the Senate with that idea in it.

They haven't. Senator Kerry has had 20 years in the Senate to submit a better idea. Instead, he's voted to raise taxes in more than 300 Senate bills.

5 Legislative Days Left Until The AWB Expires

[French-American Republican]

Gigolo John and his homosexual lover are getting desperate.