Posted on 08/06/2004 10:44:42 PM PDT by NormsRevenge
WASHINGTON, Aug. 6 - The idea of a United States independent of Middle East oil is a touchstone of Senator John Kerry's campaign and a huge crowd pleaser, but has divided and exasperated many of his most experienced energy advisers.
Some advisers say they worry that Mr. Kerry's focus on freeing the United States from reliance on oil from the Persian Gulf, the linchpin of the energy plan he released on Thursday, is unrealistic and misleading and that hammering away at it would erode Mr. Kerry's credibility with business, the news media and other countries.
The advisers, who include independent analysts, former staff members from Congress and the Clinton administration, and a few industry executives, contend that Mr. Kerry's regular jabs at Saudi Arabia in particular could be construed by many in the Middle East as anti-Arab, at a time when the United States may need the help of other Arab nations to improve the situation in Iraq.
"It goes down well in Omaha, so they use it," said one expert from the oil sector who advises the campaign and who, like other advisers, spoke on condition of anonymity. "Though there are people who say that this is irresponsible, asinine so don't use it."
He added: "I'm concerned and frustrated. It's been around for months."
Any energy plan in a campaign reads more like notes from a brainstorming session than a detailed blueprint for economic and social change. The ideas are diverse and often vague, in an effort to have as many people as possible sign on. The chances of an actual policy being passed by Congress are slim, said energy industry experts, some of whom contended that the country had not had a comprehensive energy policy since President Jimmy Carter.
The Bush campaign argues that the Kerry plan will lead to the opposite of all it trumpets: job losses, not gains; greater dependence on foreign oil, not less; and a weaker economy. They also said Mr. Kerry and his running mate, Senator John Edwards, did not vote for energy legislation supported by the administration that contained similar ideas to what is in Mr. Kerry's plan. The Republican energy plan, however, included a provision to allow drilling in the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge, which both men oppose.
Among Mr. Kerry's advisers and independent energy analysts, the reviews of the details of the plan were mixed, though most praised its focus on reducing energy demand.
"At least it's going in the right direction," said Roger Diwan, a managing director at PFC Energy, a Washington consulting firm. "The only thing that matters is increasing fuel efficiency because if you can't control demand, you will never have an energy policy."
Increasing fuel efficiency of American cars is a critical aspect of the 10-year, $30 billion plan, though Mr. Kerry has avoided setting target dates or mileage goals. He calls for establishing an Energy Security Trust Fund financed with royalties from federal leases for oil and gas drilling that would then bankroll research into improving fuel efficiency, and developing alternative fuels for automobiles and renewable energy sources for power production.
What discomfits some energy experts with the campaign, those outside it and some Saudis is Mr. Kerry's belief that the United States can achieve independence from Middle East oil and the rhetoric he uses to express that vision. Because many Arab governments are repressive, the logic of the campaign goes, they are ultimately vulnerable to upheaval and potentially volatile.
"We are going to reach for energy independence, we are going to create the jobs of the future because I want America's security to depend on Americas ingenuity and creativity, not the Saudi royal family," Mr. Kerry said at a rally in St. Louis this week. "That's where the future is."
The comment drew huge applause, as it almost always does. One Kerry adviser said the reaction of television viewers to a similar comment in Mr. Kerry's convention speech showed overwhelmingly favorable reaction from Democrats and Republicans.
The problem is that for the next 10 or 20 years, perhaps more, perhaps as long as the United States uses oil, it will be tied to the Middle East, which holds two-thirds of the world's oil reserves. Oil prices are global, determined by bidding for barrels mainly on exchange in New York and London. So even if the United States did not import any oil from the Middle East, a disruption of oil exports from there to Japan, for instance, would still result in a price shock in the United States as Japan's scramble for oil drive up prices everywhere, industry experts said.
Some advisers who squirm over the language maintain that the Saudis nevertheless understand that such categorical statements are campaign-year rallying cries. The Saudis point out that every president since Richard M. Nixon has called for the same thing, though one Saudi official who spoke on the condition of anonymity said the call was "more loud now."
"Things will be said in an election year, and we take it for what it is," said Nail al-Jubeir, spokesman for the Saudi Embassy in Washington. "These arguments tend to be what you find on a bumper sticker. People think Saudi-bashing is the answer to energy consumption, but we're not over here selling you S.U.V.'s or defeating fuel-efficiency standards."
Yet while the Saudi elite may understand the need for Mr. Kerry's rhetoric, others in the kingdom see a downside for both nations. "This is not good from the point of view of attacking another country or in the way the U.S. public sees us," said the Saudi official who insisted on anonymity. "And some people will use it against the U.S."
The Kerry campaign, however, did not see drawbacks to the message.
"John Kerry's diplomacy will be so far and away different from George Bush's," said Sarah Bianchi, Mr. Kerry's national policy director. "We aren't worried about anything he is saying on these issues."
David M. Halbfinger contributed reporting from St. Louis for this article.
I thought Kerry's idea of two yugos in every garage was brilliant
I don't think we could ever totally free ourselves of the need for foreign oil, but we certainly could, and should reduce our dependence on it. Bio-diesel is one place to start.
improving fuel efficiency is an underrated concept, but what the saudi ambassador said is right(for a change)... every candidate since nixon has made this promise... and nobody has ever even worked toward making it a reality.
Will Theresa and Hillary teach everyone how to fly brooms?
Everyone just wants a four cylinder Toyota Prius, right?
The quickest way to stop our dependence on foreign oil is to drill more. The Dumborats won't let us.
Furthermore, it is highly unlikely that we can turn off the spigots from the Middle East, where we get approximately 20% of our oil now. We don't have enough oil to fulfill our own domestic needs. There is only so much oil we can take from Mexico, Canada, and Venuzuela to make up the difference.
Surely Kerry wouldn't want to have energy prices increase because he's too stubborn to get oil from the Middle East, or is he?
If we are serious about oil independence we need to open up some public lands for exploration, and cut back on some of the ridiculous environmental laws That make fuel more expensive.
Agreed...but a Baghdad to Boston pipeline, and a "Free Gasoline day" on the anniversity of Saddam's capture, would go a long way in alleviating some of our dependence.
The government shouldn't try to suppress citizen's demands, it should instead facilitate increasing supply to meet those demands.
It's the difference between an expanding economy and a contracting one.
Don't kid yourself. Kerry's message is simply posturing. If he were elected, he would deal with OPEC just like everyone else.
Wait? Kerry lies? I am shocked. I thought only Bush lies. /sarcasm
Any guesses who this person is?
probably not a Halliburton fella, I reckun ;-)
And those continuous flip-flops.
As for the Yugo.....
Make that a Trabank to go
Why do Trabank's have heated rear windows? ...to keep your hands warm when pushing.
How do you double the value of a Trabank?....Fill it up with petrol
This is nonsense on stilts. Only a small portion (something like 17%) of oil we import comes from Saudi Arabia. Most of our imported oil comes from Mexico and Canada.
Dennis Miller said it right tonight. When they make an electric or hybrid that looks like a Boxter, I'll buy one.
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