Kerry tries to reclaim New Jersey

Washington Times ^ | 6/16/04 | Charles Hurt

[kattracks]

ATLANTIC CITY, N.J. -- New Jersey -- one of the Democratic Party's most reliable states in national elections -- isn't lining up behind Sen. John Kerry quite the way he and the state's powerful union bosses would like.

President Bush lost New Jersey to former Vice President Al Gore by 15 percentage points, a landslide by the standards of the cliff-hanger 2000 election.

[Torie]

A rather renowned law professor of mine, once characterized in class New Jersey as where the garbage met the sea. He also wore orange ties on St. Patrick's Day. Interesting character.

[conservative in nyc]

IT'S THE ECONOMY, STUPID!!!!!!!!

It never was that bad in New Jersey. And New Jersey was a swing state before the last two elections.

[jocon307]

"Mr. Mullen replied, "Yeah, but he's our rich French guy and we got to stick with him."

That's about the most ringing endorsement Kerry's gotten.

[California Patriot]

Another Washington Times thumb-sucker. I'm surprised Don Lambro didn't write it. Or maybe he has already.

In some respects, the Times is a commendable paper. But they do have a bad habit of seeing Republican growth among Democratic constituencies (blacks, Jews, etc.) with little factual backup.

New Jersey is what it is, a sorry combination of union-brainwashed blue collars and upper-income suburban liberals. Remember when Bret Schundler was supposed to be a strong candidate for governor? The recent political history of the Garden State has simply been a nightmare. Bush will not win this state. He's better off focusing like a laser on Ohio, West Virginia, Missouri and Florida. These are the big four. New Jersey is a sinkhole.

[playball0]

I agree with you, but New Jersey would cinch the election for Bush.

[goldstategop]

I don't like President Bush's chances in New Jersey. He's got a better chance in Pennslyvania. Right now the polls put the President ahead in Ohio and Florida. If the President can get PA secured, he's won a second term in the White House.

[California Patriot]

Agreed. I'll accept that as a friendly amendment to my post. Pennsylvania is more middle-American than Joisey.

Bush must try hard to nail down all four of the states
I mentioned -- Florida can never be taken for granted,
and neither can any of the others. But the next large state after the four "light red" states is Pennsylvania. Another
place to target is New Mexico.

[Qwinn]

You'd be surprised.

I live in Jersey. I'm heavily conservative. So are most of the people I know.

You seem to me to be totally discounting the impact of 9/11 here, and assuming that NJ will continue voting the same way it always has.

You also fail to appreciate just how much Democrat corruption attributed to Governor McGreasy has alienated Jerseyians. You're about to see what drove Jerseyans to Democrats over the last decade (Governor Whitless) now played out in reverse.

When you include the 9/11 factor, think especially about this - historically, -South- Jersey has always been conservative, and -North- Jersey has always been liberal. But it was North Jersey that was hit hardest by 9/11. Bush's base in the southern half of the state was already secure. The effect of 9/11 went straight to the -core- of the concentration of liberals in NJ.

Most of the self-identified liberals I know in this state are actually utterly apathetic about politics and won't go anywhere near the voting booth come the election.

Don't count us out. We may just have a big surprise for you. At the very minimum, Kerry won't win by the margin you think he will.

I'm not saying Bush should necessarily -concentrate- here... but spending a -little- time wouldn't hurt at all. Also, if Bush could just -once- actually -solidly and undisputedly lead- Kerry in the polls in NJ, think of the effect that would have across the nation. Given most people's preconceptions (including yours), it would be shocking. The media would HAVE to acknowledge that Kerry was in serious trouble.

By the way, check the records. How many out of the last 9 presidential elections in NJ went to the Democrat? It's not as many as you think. You'll be quite surprised.

Qwinn

[conservative in nyc]

For all intents and purposes, South Jersey IS Pennsylvania. It's the same media market. All Bush would have to do is buy some cable plays in North Jersey to supplement the barrage that's likely going on down south. I doubt he'd want to bother buying expensive NYC ads. He'll never win New York.

But Jersey's more in play than you think.

[California Patriot]

Why hasn't 9-11 helped Bush in New York?

I think this poll might reflect griping about McGreevy
-- much as polls in Massachusetts have often reflected griping about Ted Kennedy.

I can certainly believe that there are many conservatives
in New Jersey (and indeed in every state) whose circles of acquaintances are also mainly conservative. It proves nothing. It is quite plausible that 9-11 has caused Jerseyites to look at Bush a bit differently than he is seen in New England, Seattle, or the Bay Area. I don't deny that something of the sort has happened.

I do deny that Bush will win New Jersey. Political fundamentals always reassert themselves at the end of the campaign, if not sooner. And the fundamentals in New Jersey are liberal, not conservative.

[Tennessean4Bush]

Political fundamentals always reassert themselves at the end of the campaign, if not sooner. And the fundamentals in New Jersey are liberal, not conservative.

I am inclined to agree. If Bush wins NJ, then he has won 48 states including CA.

[Huck]

I have to agree that New Jersey is not yet ready for prime time. Some of that is because GWB is what he is, but he ain't Ronald Reagan. Not by a long shot.

But it's also because of our screwed up political landscape. I can't help but say, though, that I don't see either Bret Schundler's primary victory or Doug Forrester's race against the Democratic Machine as disasters. We lost, but I see those two elections as signs of movement in the right direction.

We have some tough odds to deal with here in NJ, but I wouldn't say it's totally hopeless. If GWB can win a second term, maybe with a clear mandate, then maybe he can help us send a Republican to the Senate. And judging by recent elections, the voting GOP in NJ will deliver a conservative.

[jwalsh07]

If Kerry has to spend time and money in New Jersey, he's already lost.

[hobbes1]

NJ, May not go for Bush. That is hardly the point. This article, is an OPEN ADMISSION by Kerry that NJ has to be defensed, making it a Luxury for Bush, but a Battleground for Kerry.


If Kerry is forced to push for NJ that is MUCH LESS resources for OHIO,PA, and FLA. And NJ is THE MOST EXPENSIVE MEDIA MARKET TO DEFEND, because you have to use both Philly, and NYC media to defend it.


This article is important, bc it shows the battleground moving from Battleground states to states Gore won in 2000.




And Bush has barely begun making his case.



Bad juju for Candidate Kerry...

[hobbes1]

Dont listen to the naysayers. NJ, in the right circumstance is still a swing state. IT cost that Sc*mbag Corzine 5$ a vote to barely nudge out Franks. (60 mil to around 5...)


Schundler was screwed directly by DonnyD, Who I hope gets run over by a truck for it.....


Forresters whole campaign was "I am not Bob Torricelli" Once T was gone, it was all over, a good campiagn, but look at the machinations it has taken to for D's to keep the state. Bush is in good shape if Kerry is less than 7 points ahead all the way to Nov.

[Stentor]

state's powerful union bosses

There's a euphemism for ya.

[HostileTerritory]

This article, is an OPEN ADMISSION by Kerry that NJ has to be defensed

Hmm? Kerry doesn't say anything of the sort. He makes a comment about his campaign which is the sort of thing he's been saying everywhere, but he was in NJ because Bon Jovi was doing a fundraiser for him.

[hobbes1]

Kerry's New Jersey problem has some Democrats puzzled and more than a little concerned. Speculation about the cause ranges from the state's front-row seat for the September 11 terrorist attacks on the World Trade Center to Mr. Kerry's monied lifestyle and patrician demeanor.
"It's hard," said William T. Mullen, president of New Jersey's building trades union and a fervid Bush detractor. "Bush wraps himself in the flag from 9/11 and the war. He knows how to play that to his advantage."
Mr. Mullen considered the poll numbers for a moment and added: "Working people should not even consider voting for Bush. Oh, that would be so terrible."

You have no Idea who Bill Mullen (Bigtime Dem Power Player in the state....) is do you? The fact that Mullen is SPEAKING TO THE ISSUE, is the admission.

Or did you expect the Frenchman to come out and say it himself?

[HostileTerritory]

What this article says to me is that a Washington Times reporter called up this guy to get his response to the poll numbers and he replied with what was on his mind. I have no reason to believe he was representing campaign thinking--if anything, he was probably straying way off the reservation.

The fact that some polls show NJ tied is news to Mullen indicates how far out of the loop he must be because we've known about them here on FR for several weeks now--along with polls showing Kerry with an 8-12 point lead over Bush. Mullen may be a power player in NJ politics, but it's a big leap from there to the Kerry campaign.

If someone's going to make a claim that this article shows an admission on the part of Kerry or the Kerry campaign, that has to be backed up. It ain't there.