[goldstategop]

Kerry leads by 50-44% among likely voters.

[RWR8189]

Thanks, I see that now.

[pete anderson]

I would expect Bush to get a "Reagan Bump" for the next week or two but the President is going to take a strong stand on something if he is going to regain and hold a lead over Kerry.

BTW-I really have using the term "Reagan Bump" but over the last few days there have been so many pundits making parallels between Reagan and Dubya.

Perhaps it is better than making a parallel between Dubya and his dad or even One Term Carter but it still bugs me that in this time that we are here to honor Reagan that some see this as an opportunity to Advance the Bush Campaign.

Reagan was Better than that.

Bush is Better than that.

America is Better than that.

[Dave Olson]

Kerry leads by 50-44% among likely voters.

I have a hard time believing that 50% of voters will actually vote for Kerry. There is a difference between people telling someone over the phone whom they like and actually casting a ballot.

After Kerry got the nomination sewn up, he received on average about 70% of the vote in the remaining Democrat primaries and caucuses. That means that about 30% of the Democrats who voted could not bring themselves to vote for Kerry even though essentially nobody else was running.

Assuming about 45% of all voters are Democrats and they follow that same trend, then only 31.5% of all the votes Kerry would get would be among Democrats. If you add the few percentage points he's likely to get each among Independents and Republicans, he'll be lucky to break 40%.