School Fight May Wound Perry in 2006

Austin, TX, American-Statesman ^ | 05-20-04 | McNeely, Dave

[Theodore R.]

School fight may wound Perry in '06 Thursday, May 20, 2004

In the recent 28-day special session called by Gov. Rick Perry, the only consensus was that no one liked the governor's plan — long on sin taxes and short on new money for schools.

Even several Republican legislators marvel at how Perry has angered people and groups across the state. Some think the special session was just for show, and to set legislators up to take the blame for failure to revamp school finance and lower property taxes.

The public is apparently cooling on the governor as well. In a Texas Poll taken May 3-15, just 37 percent of the 1,000 Texans polled think he is doing a good or excellent job. Fifty-two percent rated him fair or poor.

The Legislature's positive rating, 23 percent, was even worse than Perry's, and the House and Senate presiding officers rated only slightly better than that.

But whether Perry's declining poll ratings mean he is vulnerable to a Democratic challenger is another question.

So far, talk of a Democrat running for governor in 2006 hasn't caused much buzz around the Capitol.

Democrats who are mentioned as possibilities include former Comptroller John Sharp, who's lost two races for lieutenant governor; outgoing U.S. Rep. Jim Turner of Crockett, who was redistricted out of his job; Dallas Mayor Laura Miller; former Austin Mayor Kirk Watson, who lost a race for attorney general in 2002; GSD&M Advertising honcho Roy Spence; and, tongue way in cheek, entertainer and author Kinky Friedman.

Some Democrat, certainly, will run for governor. But there are a few hitches before a Democrat would have a realistic shot at recapturing the Governor's Mansion.

One is that the courts may take care of school finance and let the governor (and Legislature) off the hook. Or, the court could force the Legislature (and governor) to deal with it in the regular legislative session in 2005.

Another is that a Democrat will have to test whether Texas really has become a Republican state, or whether it has been overly influenced by a Bush from Texas on the ballot in seven of the last 12 elections.

Another is that while some think Perry hasn't raised much money for schoolchildren, he's been very good at raising it for himself.

A Democratic challenger might be vastly outspent unless he or she is independently wealthy enough to self-finance. And even that didn't work in 2002, when Tony Sanchez put $60 million into his campaign and still got stomped by Perry.

Even if there were a credible, well-financed Democratic candidate, he or she could look up in April of 2006 and find themselves actually facing Comptroller Carole Keeton Strayhorn or U.S. Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison. (Strayhorn appears so bent on running that Agriculture Commissioner Susan Combs has already announced for comptroller in 2006.)

A year is a lifetime in politics, and lots of things could affect the governor's standing with voters. So stay tuned, and hang on. In a state where politics is a contact sport, it should at least be interesting.

Get your online political fix at statesman.com/insidetexaspolitics.

Dave McNeely's column appears Thursdays. Contact him at (512) 445-3644 or dmcneely@statesman.com.

[sinkspur]

From the Pravda-on-the-Brazos. Perry or Hutchison will run (Strayhorn couldn't beat either in a primary), and will win.

Texas is now a Republican state. Ron Kirk's pathetic performance against John Cornyn ought to put that to rest.