OP-ED: Reconsidering a Military Solution in Waziristan

There is little doubt that the issue of foreign militants using Pakistani territory for launching operations against a neighbouring country has to be addressed

Serious differences between the United States and Pakistan seem to be emerging over the ‘hammer and anvil’ strategy that had been elaborated by the US recently to confront, capture or eliminate Al Qaeda and allied Taliban elements in the border region between Afghanistan and Pakistan.

The US and the Karzai government sought military action from Pakistan to flush out militants in the area so that they would be pushed into Afghanistan where the US military would take over the operation. The ultimate prize, on the eve of US elections, would be Osama Bin Laden.

For Pakistan, it seemed more a matter of going along while taking care of a destabilising element within its borders. The estimate of foreign militants who had taken refuge in the area was close to 400 including Uzbeks and Chechens. After days of bloody fighting in which more than 150 persons are estimated to have died on both sides no militants of note could be captured. If there were indeed high-value targets in the area, they made their escape fairly early either because of better intelligence or greater familiarity with the terrain or possibly both.

Under a deal between the military and the wanted tribesmen led by Nek Muhammad the militants would surrender, register with the authorities, give an assurance that they would not use the area as a springboard for operations inside Afghanistan and the tribes would stand surety for their good conduct. After the surrender ceremony near Wana on Saturday involving Nek Muhammad and his men on the one hand and the Peshawar Corps Commander Lt.-General Safdar Hussain on the other, the initial deadline of April 30th was extended by a week and the second one is due to expire today. No surrenders by the militants had taken place at the time of writing but even if this comes to pass, making the agreement stick will take some doing.

Nek Muhammad has already said that he surrendered to no one. He was at the meeting with his armed guards and the military commander came to his area, not the other way round. The government seems to have re-thought its earlier strategy in light of the high loss of lives on both sides coupled with the little headway made in terms of the objectives of the operation.

For the United States, however, the re-think is problematic. Lt.-General David Barno, commander of the American forces in Afghanistan, has made clear that the US is unhappy with the truce: ‘There are foreign fighters in those tribal areas who will have to be killed or captured,’ he declared, emphasising that a ‘significant’ number were using the area as a base. He went on to express concern that things could ‘go in the wrong direction’.

A similar statement had been made not too far back by the US ambassador to Afghanistan Zalmay Khalilzad about Pakistan not doing enough to support the US in its ‘war on terrorism’. Meanwhile, the president of Afghanistan, Hamid Karzai, has also pointed out that Pakistan’s approach to the militants is counterproductive and would encourage the militants. Karzai has to worry about the elections in Afghanistan, once postponed, scheduled for later this year.

The scenario is further complicated by the Bush administration’s insistence that elections in Afghanistan be held prior to the US presidential elections due in November. The problem is obvious. The occupation of Iraq has gone badly wrong for the US. The number of US troops killed in Iraq has risen steadily after President Bush flew to an aircraft carrier to declare ‘mission accomplished’. Iraq is simply not going to add up to the foreign policy success that the White House had chalked up in those heady days. So, Afghanistan has become important again and regained US attention.

More recently, matters in Iraq have become even worse as images of prisoners being tortured by US and British troops have been flashed around the world. This exposes most starkly the vile underside of US occupation and all the claims of introducing democracy to Iraq begin to sound even less credible. The opposition is likely to intensify.

All of which pushes Afghanistan centre-stage for the Bush administration as it moves towards the November elections. It may not be a coincidence that on the same day that General Barno expressed his displeasure at the deal in South Waziristan, there was an incursion by US soldiers across the Pakistan border. The government has lodged a protest with the US while claiming that the incursion was inadvertent. But it could well be a thinly veiled warning to Pakistan that if it does not move against the militants the US forces based in Afghanistan could come across the border in ‘hot pursuit’ to do the job themselves. Either way, if the fighting begins again and casualties run high, the repercussions for Pakistan could be serious. It is imperative, therefore, that the deal having been made is now seen to work.

In a curious decision, more reliance seems to have been placed on the MMA in putting the deal together while bypassing in large measure the political administration of the area. Given the situation on the ground they may need to be brought back into the loop. There is little doubt that the issue of foreign militants using Pakistani territory for launching operations against a neighbouring country has to be addressed. Among other things, it renders Pakistan vulnerable. But there is little doubt that miscalculations have been made in the timing and conduct of the operation. Now that the government has opted for a negotiation track it should give it time to work and not be pushed into resuming military action unless it is clear that the other side is not sticking to the deal.

Nek Mohammad parts ways with foreign militants, claims official

By Dilawar Khan Wazir & Ismail Khan

WANA, May 17: In a major development in the standoff over foreign militants hiding in the outh Waziristan tribal region, a tribal militant on Monday dissociated himself from their rank and offered to back up military operations , government officials and tribal elders said.

"Nek Mohammad has conveyed to us that he has parted ways with foreign militants and that he would abide by the Shakai Agreement and if needed he would cooperate with the tribe in the search for his former comrades," South Waziristan Political Agent Asmatullah Khan Gandapur told Dawn by phone from the regional headquarters, Wana.

An eighteen-member jirga that had met tribal militants including their chieftain Nek Mohammad, in Wana earlier in the day to discuss ways and means to resolve the standoff over registration, later conveyed the message to the authorities.

The 27-year-old militant gained prominence following the military operation in Kaloosha near Wana in March against foreign militants. Nek Mohammad together with four other tribal militants, wanted for sheltering foreign militants, won clemency from the government in Shakai on April 24, in return for a pledge to remain peaceful and not use Pakistan's soil against any other country.

The issue of registration of foreign militants, which the government insisted was part of the Shakai Agreement and Nek Mohammad said it was not, had led to a standoff and sparked fear of another military operation in the region.

Mr Gandapur claimed that Nek Mohammad had committed himself before his Ahmadzai Wazir tribe to honour the Shakai Agreement. "If at any point the tribe comes to realize that he has been fooling them, then naturally he will have to face the consequences," he said.

Maulana Merajuddin, a tribal parliamentarian from the region, who was part of the 18-member jirga that met with the tribal militants and later the administrator, however, had a different version.

He told Dawn by phone that Nek Mohammad and his other comrades told the jirga that foreign militants were no longer in the Wana region. He quoted him as saying that there had been no "important" foreign militant before and the few "insignificant" people there had been in the region had also moved out to unknown areas.

"There were about 30 to 35 foreigners in the region ready for registration, but when the government insisted that they would have to come to Wana Scouts Camp and appear before the authorities for registration, they got so scared that they fled," Merajuddin said quoting Nek Mohammad.

The former Taliban leader had also assured the jirga that he would not "block" any search operation by the government aimed at finding foreign militants in the tribal region.

Nek Mohammad was not immediately available for comments on the claims by the jirga and the administration. Mr Gandapur said that he was not satisfied with the claim that there were no foreign militant and would like to see how the tribal lashkar fared in its resolve to find and flush out foreign militants.

http://www.dawn.com/2004/05/18/top3.htm

Perhaps this is the reason why Nek chnaged his mind and will cooperate with the governmknet: He has malaria and is begging for medication !
http://www.dawn.com/2004/05/17/top5.htm
Lashkar to enforce registration

By Dilawar Khan Wazir

WANA, May 16: The Ahmadzai Wazir tribe formed a 4,000-strong lashkar to force foreign militants believed to be hiding in the South Waziristan agency to get themselves registered as a deadline set by the administration for the purpose ended on Sunday.

The laskhar would go into action on Monday, tribal elder Malik Dost Mohammad Tojikhel told a jirga held here to review the situation arising out of the inability of tribal militants to persuade the foreign elements to register with the administration.

However, the lashkar which appeared to have been formed under pressure from the authorities lacks the enthusiasm and vigour seen during a similar exercise last month when the government suddenly halted the operation and began negotiations with the militants.

Malik Dost Mohammad said that the lashkar would move against the foreign militants and, at the same time, would continue to hold talks with their representatives.

He alleged that a number of tribal Maliks and ulema, and even some militants, were trying to dissuade the foreign militants from coming up for registration and scuttle the whole exercise.

He warned that the tribal jirga would move against people obstructing the registration process. The jirga would impose a fine of up to Rs1 million and demolish their houses, he added.

Credible sources said that top tribal militant, Nek Mohammad, who was granted clemency along with other militants under the Shakai agreement on April 24, was down with malaria.

The sources said that he was trying to contact the authorities to tell them that the foreign militants were ready to get themselves registered. But, the sources added, the General Officer Commanding of Kohat, Niaz Khattak, and the political administration had refused to see him because the deadline had already ended, and the militants must show up for registration, or face action.

Meanwhile, according to analysts here, the situation in Wana is not conducive for the lashkar to move against the militants and produce positive results.

"It may not be a coincidence that on the same day that General Barno expressed his displeasure at the deal in South Waziristan, there was an incursion by US soldiers across the Pakistan border."

That would probably be the incursion covered in this FR thread: U.S. Troops Hunting Militants Stray Into Pakistan

And it was preceeded by a similar incident 6 months before that at the same village that was covered on this thread: US jet’s firing on Pak territory

And a year or so prior to that, U.S. special forces entered that same town and arrested (American) al-Qa'ida suspects. Source: Arrested Americans said to be Al Qaeda suspects

Popular little place, wouldn't you say? Maybe the attraction is a mud hut of ill repute!

--Boot Hill

Delay, delay...
http://www.hipakistan.com/en/detail.php?newsId=en65008&F_catID=sd&f_type=source
WANA: Operation against foreign militants in Wana was deferred till tomorrow, Geo news channel reported on Tuesday.

A Jirga was held in Wana on Tuesday attended by the 36-members committee, notables of Ahmedzai Wazir clan and 4000 members of the tribal Lashkar (force). A member of the 36-member tribal committee, Allah Khan addressing the Jirga said that the foreign elements should accept terms of the Shakai agreement i.e. to leave the country or prepared for getting them registered.

They should surrender them to the government if they are disagreed with the terms of the agreement, he said. He warned that strict action would be taken against foreign elements if they offered resistance to the Lashkar. No specific reason of delaying the operation was intimated but the Jirga was told that the operation was delayed, as some of the tribal clans were not present. The Lashkar will gather at Ghazai tomorrow.

Here are some more names of the tribes for namedropping on the next cocktail party ;-)

http://www.paktribune.com/news/index.php?id=65277

WANA, May 18 (Online): The tribal jirga of Ahmadzai Wazir on Monday formally constituted a 4000-strong armed lashkar to fight foreign inhabitants who have refused to get themselves registered with political administration in Southern Waziristan.

The lashkar is likely to launch its operation in the area any time today (Tuesday).

The tribal jirga gathered Monday at the Rustam Bazaar at Wana, the headquarters of Southern Waziristan and constituted a 40-member committee.

The jirga largely attended by tribal elders including MNA Maulana Abdul Maalik, Malik Noor Muhammad and Maulana Mirajuddin, declared that the foreign elements have left the area.

However, if the government has any intentions to launch fresh operation against foreigners in Southern Waziristan, it should take the committee along so as to avert any damage to Shakai accord.

Later, the committee along with Maulana Abdul Maalik, Malik Noor Muhammad and Maulana Mirajuddin hold extensive talks with Political agent of Southern Waziristan, Asmatullah Gandapur and Col Khalid Usman on the aliens' registration issue.

Malik Bostan, a tribal elder addressing a jirga scouts camp made it clear that the tribals are still acting upon the Shakai Accord and will continue to do the same in future as well.

He said: "as for registration of foreigners living in the area, there is no foreigner on our soil".

Malik Bostan said the aliens previously present in the area have already abandoned the area a few days ago.

He stressed the need to include tribal committee in operation against foreign elements if the option is under the government consideration, so that the prevalent peaceful environment in the area can be ensured.

On the occasion, Political agent Asmatullah Gandapur said the political administration want peace and security in Waziristan and repose full confidence in the newly formed tribal lashkar.

It is learnt reliably that the foreigners previously living in Federally Administered Tribal Areas (Fata) have shifted to Afghanistan a couple of days ago.

Tribal lashkar constituted for protection of borders

Sub clans of Mada Khel tribe Monday constituted tribal Lashkar for protection of border areas as well as for taking action against suspicious elements.

After constitution of the Lashkar about 50 tribal elite from Khazar Khel, Nazar Khel, Macha, Samal Khel, Bashi Khel, Tandi, Achar and Cheengli group met with political officials including Assistant Political Officer Syed Zaheer Islam and apprised them of the aims and objectives behind lashkar's formation.

Those representing sub clans of Mada Khel included Malik Muhammad Naeem, Malik Akbaray, Malik Azal, Mir Malik Amar Jan, Malik Abdulwali, Malik Labtay, Malik Piao Jan, Malik Khoonwali, Malik Samal Khan, Malik Ablis khoon and Madamir Jan.

They (tribal elites) saw eye to eye with administration?s measures including imposition of fine to the tune of Rs 5 million and razing of houses on the tribesmen allegedly sheltering aliens.

Malik Akbaray told the political assistant Saeed Zaheer Islam that they did not even gave shelter to the Afghan refugees after Soviet Union's disintegration "so how come we would give refuge to aliens", he argued.

We had taken responsibility to patrol the long border and let army do the job on government's insistence, he said, maintaining that the situation had gone from bad to worse as they were suffering troops frequent incursions into their area.

He added that they knew how to combat US troops. We are ready to cope with US incursions provided that government does not have any objection. The Assistant political officer reiterated administration's resolve of not allowing anyone to carry out terrorist activities from Pakistani soil. Effective measures would be employed to this effect, he said.

Troops leave Razmak for another operation

MIRANSHAH (North Waziristan) After a long-drawn negotiations of the administration with the tribal leaders the situation here is fast leading to a possible military operation against the alleged al-Qaeda fugitives reportedly hiding in Shawal mountains, hundreds of military troops Tuesday left the Razmak camps of North Waziristan Agency for Shawal, giving credence to the reports that the military action is imminent now.

The troops in 50 vehicles left Razmak early in the morning for Shawal, that is the biggest unpopulated mountainous range connecting North and South Waziristan agencies, and also Pakistan with Afghanistan. The troops have also established a tent camp at Sarobi.

No one either from the civil administration or military authorities could be contacted for comments on the troops movement, however, some low ranking officials said that another operation against the suspected foreigners and their local shelterers is expected in the coming few days.
Besides Shawal, operation could also be conducted in Makeen ? a town at a distance of five kilometres.

A large number of military and paramilitary troops have also been deployed in all important cities and towns of both North and South Waziristan agencies of the tribal belt. Unlike previous March operation, the government this time has finalised a comprehensive plan to make sure that objectives are achieved.

All Noor Wazir adds from Wana:
The tribal lashkar could not start its action against the illegal foreigners and their local protectors in Azam Warsak of South Waziristan Agency.
However, the lashkar chief on arrival at Azam Warsak warned the foreigners hiding in the area to surrender or face stern action.

Following the decision of Zalikhel Ahmadzai Wazir tribesmen Jirga, the 1200-armed members of the lashkar assembled at Azam Warsak.

The lashkar chief Malik Allah Khan discussed certain matters with representatives from different clans and tribes.
In the afternoon, Malik Allah Khan in a brief speech to the lashkar urged all the foreigners to surrender for registration.

He warned that any foreigner if arrested by the lashkar will not be pardoned and will be handed over to the government functionaries for proper legal action.
Malik Allah Khan said the Lashkar would demolish the houses of the local protectors of the foreigners besides their expulsion from the agency.

On the other hand, the Jirga of Zalikhel Ahmadzai Wazir tribe decided to despatch another Lashkar to Raazghee area, situated 35 kilometres from Wana. The Jirga has received certain reports about the presence of some suspected foreigners and militants in the area.

Most of the suspected houses and hideouts in Azam Warsak and its surrounding areas have already been demolished by the Lashkar or by the personnel of law-enforcement agencies in earlier military action and Lashkarkashi.
Now the Lashkar operation will be launched in the areas not covered by earlier operations.

Meanwhile, Brig. (Retd) Mehmood Shah, Secretary Security for FATA said that the lashkar after assembling in Azam Warsak discussed strategies of the operation and logistic matters.
He said that from Wednesday morning, the lashkar would launch formal action against the suspected tribesmen.
He said that lashkar in likely to start its operation from Shah Alam areas.
http://www.hipakistan.com/en/detail.php?newsId=en65087&F_catID=&f_type=source

Maybe it is for real this time?

Lashkar begins search for aliens

By Dilawar Khan Wazir

WANA, May 18: Around 1,200 armed volunteers of a tribal lashkar began a search for foreign militants in the South Waziristan tribal region of Azam Warsak about 15 km to the west of this regional headquarters here on Tuesday.

Allagai Wazir, who is heading the lashkar, asked residents in Azam Warsak to expel foreign militants. He said those found sheltering foreign militants would face demolition of their houses, a fine of one million rupees and banishment from the tribal territory.

"Such people will have no rights," Mr Wazir is said to have warned the tribesmen. The lashkar later returned to Wana and is expected to proceed to Raghzai, about 20 km to the west of here, to launch a similar operation there.

Local tribesmen are reported to have claimed that foreign militants had vacated the area and had moved to Shakai, Khamrung and Samtoi and the adjoining Shawal Mountains.

But governments officials overseeing the lashkar's manoeuvres here said they were not satisfied with the explanation and would want the lashkar to start showing results in terms of getting the foreign militants.

The lashkar was launched after talks between the authorities and tribesmen representing their foreign comrades over registration failed. Both sides now accuse each other of violating an agreement reached at Shakai on April 24.

According to the government the agreement required registration of foreign militants in return for an assurance allowing them to live peacefully in the area. Tribesmen now claim the registration of foreign militants was not a part of the agreement.

Meanwhile, the Pakistan army has begun deploying troops at key points on the road from Wana to Jandola, Tiarza, Ladha and Sarwakai. Reports reaching here said that the government had sent in another three brigades to the region, raising the overall strength of the troops to about 30,000 for a possible operation in future.

The deployment of more regular troops is in addition to the paramilitary Frontier Corps already stationed in the region. Dawn has learnt on good authority that the government wants to seal off possible escape routes of foreign militants from South Waziristan into the North Waziristan tribal agency, and before taking any tough action it will try to use all means to resolve the issue peacefully.

http://www.dawn.com/2004/05/19/top4.htm

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