[TigerLikesRooster]

(Note: You need to register in order to hear the radio program if you clicked the source link at the top. The interview with the defector(refugee) comes 29th minute into the program. He filled in many useful details about the train station in question.)

His comments gave some useful insights into reconstructing the possible situation at Ryongchon when the blast occurred.

After a long wait, a train with a number of ethnic Chinese or Koreans is bringing in goods from China. These are people engaged in cross-border trades. They made a tidy fortune in this niche market. There are many takers on N. Korean side and passengers, waiting for them at the crowded station, some for hours. Right next to the station, there are also housing areas made up of 5 storied apartments(according to another news report.) Then, a freight train filled with extremely flammable materials slammed into another train with similar cargos at the station, the ensuing explosion blowing up the entire station and its neighborhood. The sheer number of wounded Chinese citizens overwhelmed the N. Koreans, whose medical system has virtually collapsed in recent years. Since they were Chinese and mishandling them would provoke ire from China, which N. Korea cannot afford, they were sent to Chinese city of Dandong, across the border. This made it impossible to impose a total news blackout, even after cutting local phone lines to stem the spread of the news.

In my opinion, the city is now sealed, except that patients are sent to other locations for treatment. It is a standard operating procedure in N. Korea to flood such a potential trouble spot with a large number of soldiers and security agents, lest this disaster should touch off any civil unrest. Since military installations are said to be in the city, I guess that they only need to send in additional reinforcements. Any large-scale freak accident like this has a potential to snowball into a political catastrophe for N. Korean regime, the one in a slow terminal disintegration. They won't take any chances.

N. Korean train system is already battered enough. The destruction of a major transportation route and a station will make the shortage of goods and materials, which are already atrocious, much worse. Could it cripple the N. Korean economy?

Unresolved questions:

(1) Was it really a mere accident? Was Kim Jong-il physically affected by this in anyway? Considering the possibility that Kim Jong-il might have sent a decoy train first and come much later in another train, which is not unusual for a security-obsessed dictator like him , somebody might have gone after him, after finding out his real train schedule.

(2) Were those petroleum and LNG earmarked for the N. Korean military? I raise this question because the comments above mention Ryongchon as a key military supply node.

(3) If Kim Jong-il is alive and well, how would this accident will affect him psychologically? Would he turn more paranoid, hunker down and isolate his regime further whether this was an accident or an attempt on his life?

[TigerLikesRooster]

Ping!

[yonif]

bump

[thoughtomator]

North Korea have an immigrant Muslim population?

[FR_addict]

Henry Kissinger was on Greta's show tonight. H said that the trains don't go very fast in N. Korea. He seemed to be indicating that there may have been another cause for this explosion.

[Grampa Dave]

Reminds one of the accidents in Syria before we changed the regime in Iraq.

The psycho dictator will become even more paranoid, reclusive and possibly dangerous.

He will have a long and severe attack of Bunker Fever. He probably will not come out of his bunker until the next groundhog day.

[Freesofar]

I doubt Kim Jong ll could get any more paranoid .
The dude is a classic case history for DSM-IV !
He is probably the one perpetrating this rumor of an assasination attempt.

[Freesofar]

Yes it could possibly cripple the economy which is already feeling the impact of the slump in sales of renegade arms to Al Queda and Iraq.......(LOL ,sorry couldn't help myself)

[Ken H]

Have you seen any estimates of the power of this explosion? I wonder how it would compare to a MOAB, for example.

[OahuBreeze]

Great post. Thanks. Timing is certainly suspicious. I'm thinking we'll see a lot more information seeping out in the next 72 hours.

[Mo1]

(is a major military supply node)

Not any more after the reports of the size of that exlosion

[isom35]

or could this be Kim's "Reichstag fire" ?

[claudiustg]

---(1) Was it really a mere accident? Was Kim Jong-il physically affected by this in anyway? Considering the possibility that Kim Jong-il might have sent a decoy train first and come much later in another train, which is not unusual for a security-obsessed dictator like him , somebody might have gone after him, after finding out his real train schedule.----

Interesting! I saw this very thing done by Park Chung Hee in South Korea. He was coming to meet with the I Corps commander at Camp Red Cloud. The highway was guarded all along his supposed route from Seoul and people ordered off the streets 2 blocks back along both sides. Park wasn't in the motorcade however!

He came by helicopter. First one landed and Park and two large bodyguards came out. Then another landed about ten minutes later and another Park with two bodyguards came out.

Park took power in a coup. He came across the Han river at 2 in the morning. Afterward he instituted marshal law with a 12 midnight curfew, that stayed in place until he was assassinated.

[Ken H]

The more I read, the worse it looks for the NK regime. Sounds like the people there need massive amounts of assisstance and right away.

Do the Chinese have the appropriate resources such as airlift capacity to deal with it? If I'm reading it right, the rail lines are out as a supply line from China.

I was thinking that the Japanese or US might be the only ones with the ability to effectively deal with the situation.

[leadpenny]

Thanks for the report.

http://www.globalsecurity.org/military/world/dprk/ryongchon-imagery.htm

[hedgetrimmer]

Right next to the station, there are also housing areas made up of 5 storied apartments(according to another news report.)

Hey! Not to change the subject, but this sounds like a "smart growth" transportation hub housing project that they are shoving down the throats of the people who live in Santa Cruz county, Commifornia. In fact, the decaying transportation infrastructure and bad roads sounds like Santa Cruz county too!

I just can't get over the coincidence!