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New Claim for Train Bombings a Clue to Al Qaeda's Capabilities?
STRATFOR ^ | March 11, 2004 2359 GMT

Posted on 03/11/2004 6:31:13 PM PST by Axion

March 11, 2004   2359 GMT

Summary

The Abu Hafs al-Masri Brigades has claimed responsibility for the March 11 bomb attacks on trains in Madrid, which left nearly 200 dead and almost 1,500 wounded. The jury is still out on who is actually responsible, but if this group was behind them, it would mean al Qaeda retains the capability to launch attacks in the West. The letter claiming responsibility also mentions that an impending attack on the United States is "90 percent ready" for launch.

Analysis

Kataib Abu Hafs al-Masri (the Abu Hafs al-Masri Brigades), a prominent group with known links to al Qaeda, sent a five-page e-mail and fax to the London-based newspaper al-Quds al-Arabi on March 11, claiming responsibility for the Madrid train bombings.

The claim is unverified, but if true it indicates that al Qaeda retains operational assets in the West -- of which the Brigades are a critical element. Perhaps coincidentally, the attack occurred exactly six months after Osama bin Laden and Ayman al-Zawahiri included Spain on their list of targets in separate statements.

Part of the al-Masri statement read, "We announce the good news for the Muslims in the world that the strike of the black wind of death, the expected strike against America, is now at its final stage -- 90 percent ready -- and it is coming soon, by God's will." The group threatened other U.S. allies and taunted Spanish Prime Minister Jose Maria Aznar, saying, "Aznar, where is America? Who will protect you, Britain, Japan, Italy and the others from us?"

Al-Masra claimed its "death squad" had infiltrated "one of the pillars of the crusade alliance, Spain," and successfully executed "Operation Death Trains" in Madrid. The reason given was to settle "old accounts" with Spain -- a reference to the Spanish inquisition and Spain's contemporary alliance with the United States.

The group is named after al Qaeda military chief Mohammed Atef (also known as Abu Hafs), who was killed when a predator drone fired a Hellfire missile at a building in Jalalabad in November 2001. Abu Hafs was a former Egyptian police officer and a member of the group of Egyptians who joined al Qaeda in the mid-1990s under the leadership of al-Zawahiri. His daughter is married to one of bin Laden's sons. The group signs its statements as "Kataib Abu Hafs al-Masri (Tandheem al Qaeda)," meaning Abu Hafs al-Masri Brigades (al Qaeda Organization).

Stratfor predicted in summer 2003 that al Qaeda's management in the West remained intact, and that the group could still attack Western targets. Al-Masri has been either directly responsible for or affiliated with groups behind a string of attacks in Tunisia, Morocco, Iraq, Turkey and now possibly in Spain. It would appear to have an extended intercontinental reach and is perhaps the operational arm of al Qaeda, due to current circumstances -- namely the necessity for al Qaeda's leadership to remain hidden.


TOPICS: News/Current Events
KEYWORDS: 31104; alqaeda; jihadineurope; madridmassacre; spain; stratfor

1 posted on 03/11/2004 6:31:14 PM PST by Axion
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To: Axion
Prayers for Spain!
2 posted on 03/11/2004 6:32:47 PM PST by cmsgop (For Gosh Sake MCI, NO MORE JAMES TAYLOR !!!!!!!!!!!!)
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To: cmsgop
It is exactly 6 months to 9/11. One other al Queda clue.
3 posted on 03/11/2004 6:37:00 PM PST by FormerACLUmember (Man rises to greatness if greatness is expected of him)
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To: Axion
A brutal wakeup call for Europe. Prayers for the Spanish people.
4 posted on 03/11/2004 6:38:19 PM PST by clintonh8r (Vietnam veteran against John Kerry.)
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To: Axion

Radical Islam’s Western Stronghold

Excerpt from this article:

"Our message is to bring Islam to the world. Islam will conquer the White House, will conquer in Downing Street," Izzadeen said. "It means conquer, it means the Americans will live under Islam, like it or not. So will the UK."

5 posted on 03/11/2004 6:42:20 PM PST by Light Speed
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To: FormerACLUmember
Ok here goes my first tin-foil post. But its really only a mathematical analysis. If we use 9/11 as a guage, 26 months have passed since the attack. If they say they are 90% (which is only a figure of speech) complete and 9/11 was the start of the clock, then we can expect an attack at 28.6 months. This is roughly 2.5 months from now which would be late May. Any significance to that time period?
6 posted on 03/11/2004 6:45:06 PM PST by ChinaThreat (E)
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To: ChinaThreat
Tin foil reply: That would be Memorial Day Weekend. (I'll go back on my meds now)
7 posted on 03/11/2004 6:47:29 PM PST by FormerACLUmember (Man rises to greatness if greatness is expected of him)
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To: All
I believe Spain's ruling Popular Party (PP) had an eight point lead over the socialist party in this Sunday's election before the attacks.

Spanish president Jose Maria Aznar will not seek a third mandate. First vice-president and government speaker Mariano Rajoy was chosen as the new leader of the conservative Popular Party (PP).

The conservatives replaced the Socialist Worker’s Party (PSOE) in 1996. POSE supporters met with ETA in January.

The PP has advocated for a zero tolerance policy regarding ETA (after ETA violated temporary truce in 2000) and of course supported us in Iraq. They have also gone after radical Muslims in Spain connected to terror in the world.

I agree with the many callers I'm hearing on radio that ETA does not operate this way. They go after government. They do not target civilians certainly not on this scale.

It will be interesting the impact upon Sunday's election (14 March) if ETA remains the prime suspect. More interesting for me would be if it is clear that radical Islam did it. OBL targeted Spain.

8 posted on 03/11/2004 7:11:47 PM PST by WilliamofCarmichael (Benedict Arnold was a hero for both sides in the same war, too!)
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To: Axion; PhilDragoo
Sept 11th..the money and the meetings go through Spain....and lead back to Saudi Arabia

Al-Qaeda financier was former accountant to Saudi royals: lawyer

The report is old news..run here many times and freeped

Yet is a key reminder that the Masters of Sept 11th are still escaping judgement.
Now they can hide behind a smokrescreen..and claim they are victims of terror too.

Its to be noted what occured during the Yom Kippur war....Yes..the Saudi led OPEC Summit in Vienna.
While they plotted to unseat American oil power.... they ran down the halls to catch the latest news on how the war was going.
Israel prevailed...then OPEC Tantruamed..America was boycotted as Islam raged.

Egypt and Syria and marked a sole designers of Yom Kippur War..with some Soviet management.
Looking back..just how aloof was Saudi Arabia in all of this.

Our Lousy Saudi Allies....

9 posted on 03/11/2004 8:06:27 PM PST by Light Speed
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To: Axion
They retain the ability to launch emails and bombast. To conclude anything beyond that is mere speculation at this point.
10 posted on 03/11/2004 8:11:07 PM PST by JasonC
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To: JasonC
BINGO

These same toads took credit for the NE blackout. What next - did they cause Mt St Helens?
11 posted on 03/11/2004 8:18:40 PM PST by ASOC (National policy is set by the grunt on point, nobody else.)
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