Posted on 02/18/2004 8:01:27 PM PST by knak
BERLIN, Feb 19 (Reuters) - It was one of the world's most deadly plagues, and some fear it might again be unleashed on mankind if bio-terrorists could get their hands on the virus.
A quarter of a century after the last known case of smallpox, scientists at a heavily-guarded installation called Vector, deep in Siberia, are still conducting research on 120 strains of the virus.
Responsibility for safeguarding the stockpiles lies with men like Sergei Netesov, Vector's deputy general director.
"We feel it, very heavily," the soft-spoken, bespectacled Russian scientist told Reuters in an interview at a security conference in Berlin.
"We look after very dangerous viruses and try to work out new ways to combat them. It's morally right, and people are proud of that kind of work."
20TH CENTURY KILLER
Beginning with a rash and developing into pustules that spread across the entire body, leaving permanent pitted scars, smallpox killed an estimated 300 million people in the 20th century alone.
It had an overall mortality rate of around 30 percent until it was declared eradicated in 1980 following a worldwide vaccination programme.
Scientists believe the death rate if it re-emerged today would be much higher because vaccination -- which carries a risk of side-effects -- is no longer widely practised.
The only official stockpiles of the virus are held at Vector, near the Russian city of Novosibirsk, and at the U.S. Centers for Disease Control in Atlanta.
Netesov argues strongly that they must be preserved, not destroyed, in order to study the origins of the virus and its genetic blueprint, and to seek new vaccines and anti-viral agents. There is still no known treatment for the disease.
"I think in reality we'll always have questions about nature, including about this virus. On the other hand, I think it's realistic to complete basic research in the next 10 or 15 years," Netesov said.
But by that time, he went on, genetic engineering would have advanced to the point where scientists could create new smallpox strains synthetically in the lab. "When that develops, there won't be much sense in destroying the stocks."
BIO-TERROR WEAPON?
Did that mean that terrorists could also manufacture the virus?
"The technology is very complex. For bio-terrorists it would be easier to steal it than to make it, because to conceal a well equipped laboratory is hardly possible for a long time," Netesov said.
"The threat we need to worry about most is theft, and probably not by someone coming from outside, but theft by someone working in a laboratory. Therefore the system of selecting people has to be very thorough."
Western analysts have often voiced concern that secrets or weapons technology could be bought or smuggled out of former Soviet research centres with highly qualified, low-paid staff.
Netesov said Vector staff typically earned $200 to $300 a month, several times higher than the Russian average.
He insisted security was tight around the installations where scientists study smallpox, SARS, Ebola, Marburg and other deadly viruses.
HUMANS ARE WEAKEST LINK
Armed police patrol the perimeter and visitors are subjected to two tiers of security checks. Staff, who are trained in bio-ethics, must have worked at least three years at the centre before they are allowed to handle the most dangerous viruses.
"The weakest link is human beings. We have to check a person very closely before we trust him."
Unlike, for example, anthrax, which cannot be transmitted from person to person, smallpox is highly contagious and can be spread via droplets in the breath, skin-to-skin contact or infected clothing or bed linen.
The Soviet Union used smallpox in its biological weapons programme, but Netesov said he believed suggestions that germ warfare experts had developed especially virulent and deadly strains were "fairytales". He also thought it highly unlikely that countries like North Korea had developed smallpox as a bio-weapon.
In the same way that smallpox strains are now stored in the United States and Russia, Netesov says the world will have to find secure ways of stockpiling poliomyelitis and measles, which could be eradicated within the next 10 years.
In a world where viruses like SARS and bird flu are posing new threats, he sees the need to pay special attention to the mutation of viruses from animals. Gene-sequencing work by Vector and U.S. scientists suggested that the smallpox virus itself evolved from cowpox.
"Viruses evolve. They evolve much faster than human beings. We constantly encounter new viruses in nature," Netesov said. "In so far as it's the closest relative of human smallpox, one can't rule out a new natural evolution of this (cowpox) virus...
"These findings show us we need to follow very closely what strains of cowpox are circulating naturally now and how they're changing. Then we can, with a certain measure of probability, foresee what awaits us in the future."
Also according to Alibek, when he defected to the US one of the last things they were working on was a smallpox/ebola combo-virus, basically derived by genesplicing.
I will not dwell on the why, since it is human nature to push science as far as it can. Hey ....Australian and American scientists were working on a super-virulent form of Influenza that uses a specific gene to literally burn its way from victim to victim. And what was the reason for that? So that they could know how super-virulent influenza virii (like the one that killed millions at the beginning of the 20th century) work.
Hence i will stay away from the 'why,' but i hope that all these scientists ensure that the genie doesn't escape.
Sadly another human trait is that anything we create gets used. Everything!
Hey ....for the first time i understand how some of the plagues in the book of Revelations that kill off a third of mankind can occur. It seemed kind of impossible at first, but think of it. What if one of those virii escaped ......
What IF one of the virii at Vector escaped? What if some cash-strapped scientist sold some petri-dish to some Jehadi-organization that infected one of its members and sent him on a suicide mission to ride a bus in Paris? We may say the US is safe ....but if 12 parisians are infected, the disease may be all over Europe, Asia, and the US before we knew what was really happening. Think about it ...virtually all flu viruses that afflict the US every year originate from HongKong and work their way over here.
What one virus can do another can.
The world is teeming with humans living in close proximity to each other, tantamount to packed sardines! Any virulent disease could spread like veritable wildfire.
To be honest with you ai fear what would happen if a Jehadi was to strike at one nation in Western Europe (to ensure spread all across the globe), and one nation in Eastern Europe/Asia/Africa (to ensure that there is a 'virus store' where the disease can fester and be safe from more 'advanced science,' so that even if the West managed to stop the 'fast' western approach there would still be virus in 3rd world 'back-rooms' for secondary attack). One terrorist in Paris, and another in Prague, and we might be facing apocalyptic scenarios.
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