Chávez's rivals need one thing: a viable leader

CARACAS - As a campaign to unseat Venezuelan President Hugo Chávez through a recall referendum heats up, the wide-ranging opposition is under attack for lacking the one crucial element for winning any new election: a candidate.

An alliance of right- and left-wing political parties and former oil workers is feverishly at work demanding the chance for Venezuelans to vote Chávez out halfway through his term. But in their maneuvering around the complicated legal obstacles on the road to a recall, experts say Chávez foes have lost sight of their goal, forgetting that if they want to oust the president, they need somebody to take his place.

Whether by design or default, the lack of a clear front-runner to beat Chávez underscores the challenges faced by a diverse coalition that lacks not just cohesion and an alternative to the enemy they seek to depose, but a political platform.

A few politicians have surfaced as possibilities to replace Chávez, but experts say all lack the media savvy and populist zeal needed to go up against a fiery orator with a devoted following among the poor.

''They are making all the right noises, but you have terribly unattractive political leaders with an at-best incoherent platform,'' said Diaz, South America project director for the Center for Strategic International Studies. ``They are losing out on the campaign, because they are not campaigning.''

Venezuelan opposition forces say the leftist former army officer rose to the presidential palace precisely by being messianic, and they refuse to fall into the same trap. What some call incompetence they consider a strategic decision.

An alliance of business, labor, media and oil sectors banded together to overthrow Chávez two years ago, when he started passing laws taking on the middle class. Afraid Chávez was controlling too much of the government's powers and getting too friendly with Cuban President Fidel Castro, unlikely partnerships formed to drive him out.

A military uprising in April 2002 nearly worked, but the president came back to power two days later. A two-month strike last year failed miserably, giving Chávez renewed control of the armed forces and the state oil company.

With unorthodox options exhausted, the opposition is now trying a legal route: a recall.

The government-controlled elections board has yet to announce if the opposition collected enough signatures to force the recall. From there, the opposition would still need to win the referendum, and then face off for an election. The law is unclear whether Chávez would be allowed to run again, but everyone is acting on the assumption that he will.

While the opposition organizes rallies and runs media ads demanding its signature drive be recognized, Chávez is on the campaign trail. The government has launched an unprecedented social spending spree on projects to teach people to read, get them to graduate from high school and receive free medical care from Cuban doctors.

''Chávez is pouring money on the streets,'' pollster Luis Vicente León said. 'Meanwhile, the opposition has three million people in its pocket -- but it needs one million more. They need not just the message, ``Out with Chávez! Chávez is a bad guy!' They need leaders.

Polls show Chávez enjoys about 40 percent support, León said. The other 60 percent is deeply divided, meaning the opposition must put forward a single candidate if it wants to win.

Miranda state Gov. Enrique Mendoza is a favorite, but he has suggested that he is not interested in being an interim president. Other leading figures who have been dubbed ''presidentiables'' are former Carabobo Gov. Henrique Salas Rmer, who lost to Chávez in 1998, and Borges, a lawyer-turned-congressman. Many experts viewed labor union leader Manuel Cova's recent trip to Washington, D.C., as a campaign stop.

''Does the U.S. Democratic Party have a leader? No opposition has a leader until election time,'' he said in a recent interview. ``Everybody is looking for a champion. We need a David, not a Goliath.''

Salas Rmer is one of five members of what was dubbed the G-5, the Group of Five, considered the nation's top opposition leaders. But even Juan Fernández, another G-5 member, has single-digit support in the polls, León said.

''They want an opposition that takes the reins,'' said Fernández, who does not plan to run. ``That's not leadership. That's a confrontation.''

Asked about a recent trip to Washington, opposition activist Timoteo Zambrano said that even U.S. officials were concerned about the lack of contenders. The Chávez administration was only too eager to agree.

''There are no leaders in the opposition,'' Vice President José Vicente Rangel said. ``Precisely they, Timoteo Zambrano and Manuel Cova, who went to Washington with a shameful attitude, as lackeys asking for help . . . are the best demonstration of that.''

Miami Herald Editorial: Staying on the constitutional course [Full Text] President Hugo Chávez has everything to gain by blocking, delaying and detracting from the constitutional process underway for his recall. That's why the international players monitoring the process must continue to insist that the intent of the law and Venezuelan voters be respected. Venezuela's National Electoral Council shouldn't be swayed by political pressure, nor should a legitimate recall petition be derailed by stalling tactics, threats or excessive technicalities.

Superheated rhetoric

Even before the verification process began, Mr. Chávez was denouncing ''megafraud'' and those involved in the petition drive as ''oligarchs'' and ''coup-plotters.'' He vowed to block the recall vote and seems to be taking every available opportunity to do so. On Sunday he repeated the accusations, charging that the opposition was using the recall petition -- outlined in the constitution that he virtually wrote himself -- as a ''mask'' for a new coup. He also threatened a military takeover of the Venevision and Globovision television stations and to challenge via the Supreme Court any decision against him by the electoral council. Such superheated rhetoric does nothing to inspire confidence in his intentions, the rule of law or a democratic solution to the political crisis that he continues to fan.

Opposition groups need 2.4 million signatures, or 20 percent of the electorate, to force a vote on Mr. Chávez's recall. The groups say they collected 3.4 million signatures, of which 265,000 may be invalid.

Now suddenly, election-officials are questioning the legitimacy of more than half of the signatures, when that rate had been 3 percent before, and reviewing again some 1 million signatures. At issue are petitions where someone other than the signers wrote in their names and identification numbers.

The Organization of American States and The Carter Center, which have been monitoring this process, rightly have called on the electoral council not to invalidate signatures on mere technicalities. ''The sovereign expression of the citizen must be privileged over excessive technicalities,'' the groups affirmed in a statement last week. The groups should also speak up should they spot any irregularities.

One candidate

Unfortunately the upshot will be more serious delays, which benefit Mr. Chávez. If he were to lose a recall vote after August, by law Mr. Chávez would be replaced by his appointed vice president -- and could remain powerful if not in power.

That's why the opposition needs to stay the constitutional course. The groups also need to unite their support under one opposition candidate. If, in fact, Venezuelans are fed up with their president and get to recall him before August, the opposition will be better positioned to defeat a Chavista candidate with one strong contender and a plan for reconciling Venezuelans and crafting a prosperous, democratic future. [End]

This is the other side of the coin. If the opposition doesn't have a leader, or if they are not prepared to fight to keep him, Chavez will not be moved out of power.

I hate to bring it up, but they already overthrew him once, and the result was not a happy one. The Chavists were prepared to fight, and the opposition was not. If the Chavist officers are willing to rise up, and the opposition officers want to remain politically neutral... if the Chavist crowds are going to go out in the streets armed and the opposition crowds want peace, its over. As it was when Chavez was briefly arrested.

When Chavez took power in the beginning, he announced from the inauguration podium that the constitution was suspended, he announced that the Supreme Court and the Congress were disbanded, and like puppies they packed their things and went home. They were not prepared to fight to defend the constitutional order, and they lost it. If they are not prepared to fight to restore it, they are not going to get it back.

Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.