Bush Has a Lock On These States (Vanity)

2/10/04 | Patrick1

[Patrick1]

Having been at FreeRepublic as a "contributor" instead of a lurker for the last couple of weeks I'm amazed at the pesimistic attitude shown on so many of these threads.

For example, we are worried about what Bill O'Reilly thinks, we are worried about a Gallup weekend poll etc.

But shouldn't we think for a minute? To win the presidency, as Algore can tell you, you must win 270 electoral votes.

Fifty state elections of which a candidate must claim the majority of the vote. So how does George W. Bush stack up against JFK? If the economy collapsed and Saddam escaped from prison and started running Iraq again and all this happened the day before the election the way I see it George W. Bush would still get 223 electoral votes.

The following states are "locks". Alabama-9 Alaska-3 Arkansas-6 Colorado-9 Florida- 27 Georgia-15 Idaho-4 Indiana-11 Kansas-6 Kentucky-8 Louisiana-9 Mississippi-6 Montana-3 Nebraska-5 North Carolina-15 North Dakota-3 Oklahoma-7 South Carolina-8 South Dakota-3 Tennessee-11 Texas-34 Utah-5 Virginia-13 Wyoming-3

This is a worst case scenario, Bush needs 47 more electoral votes to win. Which of course means that JFK must run a nearly perfect campaign. He must win West Virginia,Pennsylvania, New Mexico, Iowa, Minnesota, etc.

Basically what I'm saying is quit whining, rejoice the left is going to lose again! Your thoughts?

[Huck]

How the hell can you say Florida is a lock?

[ClearCase_guy]

Overall, I'm quite optimistic, but remember, in 1972 McGovern won only Mass. He couldn't even win his home state. He probably thought Minn. was a lock.

The campaign has not begun. There are no locks.

[Shooter 2.5]

I wouldn't bet on West Virginia, Minnesota or Pennsylvania.

[raloxk]

one thing you have to remember is Florida was close due solely to Lieberman

[Patrick1]

Easy. Look at the 2002 election. Bush won Florida in 2000 as the challenger..he takes Florida by ten points.

[hobson]

Thank You! The whining around here is getting a bit ridiculous.

[So Cal Rocket]

So long as these people are counting the ballots in Florida, it is not a lock for GWB:

[Patrick1]

Yes there are "locks". No matter what happens Bush will carry these states. This is my point. We are the majority, we need to start acting like it. It is the left that has to run a perfect campaign to win. They never have.

[OrioleFan]

I would venture to guess because they get to count the military vote this time and panhandle folks won't stay home when the networks call the contest before the polls close.

[Dane]

Having been at FreeRepublic as a "contributor" instead of a lurker for the last couple of weeks I'm amazed at the pesimistic attitude shown on so many of these threads

There is a fair share of chicken littles on FR. IMO, most are probably demo trolls(ala the punk rocker Moby's admission reported yesterday in the NY Daily News), others are third partiers, others are just people who always see the glass half empty and have a fatalistic attitude.

[MEG33]

No panic needed?You mean all the posters here on FR who have "lost their liberty,their rights" and aren't going to take it anymore don't need to be reasoned with,begged,cajoled or even brow beaten to vote for President Bush?

I may clean out closets then read a good book!!

[TheBigB]

I say Ohio goes GWB as well.

[Sloth]

I pretty much agree -- Bush has nothing to worry about.

[unixfox]

Texas isn't a lock. We have been importing plenty of ILLEGALS to sway the vote.

[alnick]

How the hell can you say Florida is a lock?

For one thing, conservatives in the panhandle will get to vote this time. The calling it early for gore type of trick can only work once.

[Chris Talk]

I agree with you that Florida is a lock for Bush this year, and I live here.

I think Bush has a good lead in Missouri, New Mexico, and Ohio, bordering on a lock, and that would seem to add 36 to your 223, bringing it to 259.

If Bush does carry all of that, then Kerry would have to take everything else, making sure that Oregon, 7; Wisconsin, 10; Iowa, 6; Minnesota, 10; Michigan, 17; or Pennsylvania, 21; or West Va. 5 -- did not somehow give Bush another 11 and thus victory.

[CMAC51]

I would venture to guess because they get to count the military vote this time and panhandle folks won't stay home when the networks call the contest before the polls close.

I think we have seen an awful lot of internal problems showing up in the Demo machine in Broward and Dade counties. The more the Demo's have to focus their energy holding those counties together, the less they have for the rest of the state.

[GiveEmDubya]

I cannot say anything for certain, but as far as Florida goes, in the end, I believe Bush wins Florida (AGAIN). His brother, after Terry McAwful claimed he was toast, romped home in 2002 by double digits. While I think the margin will be somewhat small, it will be larger than what he got in 2000.

[Patrick1]

Texas isn't a lock. We have been importing plenty of ILLEGALS to sway the vote.


This kind of crap is what I'm talking about!