Zimbabwe -- Mbeki 'deal' meets with scepticism in Harare

President Mbeki of South Africa yesterday claimed to have made an agreement with President Mugabe that the Zimbabwean leader would negotiate with the Opposition to end his country’s devastating political and economic crisis.

Speaking at a press conference in Pretoria with Gerhard Schröder, the German Chancellor, Mr Mbeki said that he had mediated a deal last month that had been delayed only because of the Christmas holidays. “I’m happy to say that they have agreed now that they will go into formal negotiations,” the South African leader said. “I’m saying that I am quite certain that they will negotiate and reach an agreement.”

The announcement drew a sceptical response in Zimbabwe. A spokesman for the main opposition Movement for Democratic Change (MDC) said he would “believe it when it happens”, and even the Mugabe regime seemed surprised by the announcement. "Our position is that we have heard it all before,” Welshman Ncube, the MDC secretary-general, said. “We will believe it when it happens. It is better for Mugabe to speak for himself and say he is willing to talk unconditionally.”

Morgan Tsvangirai, the MDC leader, who was in court defending himself against charges of treason, said that he was not aware of any breakthrough. Even Patrick Chinamasa, the Zimbabwean Justice Minister, who has been leading informal talks with the MDC, said he was “not aware of any new developments”.

But African diplomats said that secret contacts had been under way between Zimbabwean officials and the Opposition and that further efforts could be expected to bring the sides together.

The South African mediation efforts are supported by President Obasanjo of Nigeria. In the past, the Zimbabwean leader has demanded that before talking to the Opposition, the MDC must withdraw its politically embarrassing High Court challenge to Mr Mugabe’s presidential election victory in March 2002. The MDC insists that the election was flawed, a case supported by a vast dossier of evidence detailing intimidation, gerrymandering and vote-rigging. Most international observers rejected the poll as a legitimate expression of opinion.

The scepticism about a breakthrough is in part due to Mr Mbeki’s mediation record. He has been criticised for being too soft with his northern neighbour, where the Mugabe regime has used violence to intimidate the Opposition and seize illegally hundreds of white-owned farms. The political turmoil has left Harare isolated and triggered the collapse of the economy. Inflation reached 600 per cent last month.

The South African leader tried to have Zimbabwe’s suspension from the Commonwealth lifted at last month’s summit in Nigeria, but was overruled by the other heads of government. Mr Mugabe then withdrew his country’s membership, accusing the organisation of being run by white racists.

Zimbabwean opposition figures fear that Mr Mbeki may now be trying to rehabilitate Mr Mugabe’s image by suggesting that he is willing to open negotiations. In turn, this would be used to persuade the European Union to lift sanctions against Harare, due for renewal next month.

The move did not seem to sway Herr Schröder. He said that South Africa had not been “as hard as one might have expected” and described Zimbabwe’s political practices as “unacceptable”. He added: “Once democracy is restored there are a number of things we can do.”

Mbeki needs to buy a new song book. This one is getting old.

Several times Mbeki has relayed that Mugabe has given undertakings, including undertakings to negotiate, undertakings to restore press freedom, undertakings to stop the land seizures and undertakings to stop the thuggery.

Each time, Mbeki has asked for sanctions to be lifted on the basis of these "undertakings" of which only he seems to have been privy.

Each time, the "undertakings" have been repudiated by Mugabe either explicitly or implicitly by his continuance of the regime's repugnant conduct.

Nothing that Mbeki has to say on the subject of Zimbabwe can be believed.

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