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The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC), in its uphill climb to regain control of the House, has targeted four freshman Republicans: Reps. Max Burns of Georgia, Bob Beauprez of Colorado, Mike Rogers of Alabama and Rick Renzi of Arizona.

I'm a little surprised that Rogers made the cut, but they don't have much to choose from I guess. Maybe Jim Leach (IA) and Steve Pearce (NM). According to the Cook Political Report, the race was as close as it was last time in part because of high black turnout thanks to the governor's race. Now that he's an incumbent, Rogers should be fine.

"I'm a little surprised that Rogers made the cut"

I'm not. If I ran the DCCC, I would certainly target Rogers of AL, along with Gingrey of GA. The Rogers and Gingrey districts only gave Bush 52% in 2000, which in the South usually means that a RAT gets elected (Bush actually did a bit better in Bud Cramer's CD in AL and Jim Marshall's CD in GA). I think both Rogers and Gingrey will hold on, but it would be foolish for the RATs to give up so easily, since once a Southern Republican gets reelected he's very hard to beat.

On the other hand, if Pearce could win fairly comfortably as a first-time candidate while Bill Richardson was cleaning up with Hispanics, I think he's as safe as Skeen was in the most Republican CD in the state. Leach's seat will probably go to the RATs when he retires, but he's too popular locally to beat, even if they outspend him again---their one chance was in 2002 when he had a lot of new territory.

I'm surprised Jon Porter of NV didn't make the DCCC list. He won in a landslide last time, but that was only because Dario Herrera was a crook. Had the RATs run an ethical candidate, it would have been a nail-biter in a district in which Bush only got like 47% or 48%. And one would think that either Tim Murphy or Jim Gerlach (or both) would be challenged in PA. It seems like the RATs are content to stay in the minority.